ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

[AEWspotter]

Is the LLC currently moving ENE??

[Hammy]

Is the LLC currently moving ENE??

Certainly looks that way, could be getting pulled closer to the convection.

[ninel conde]

almost due east. could mess up 91L.

[AEWspotter]

Perhaps the LLC is rotating around the broader circulation to it's NW? Hammy, certainly looks like it's getting closer to the convection. Ninel conde, I wouldn't bet on this system moving that far to the east.

[ninel conde]

true, but if it just stays staionary it will mess up 91

[Hammy]

the only impact it would have on 91L is being absorbed by it as 91L or stalling it out as 91 has a larger circulation and is quite a distance away.

[Alyono]

true, but if it just stays staionary it will mess up 91

Not a chance!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Maybe it becomes something to watch down the road. For the foreseeable future though, it's no threat to develop.

700-500 MB RH 51 52 56 56 54 49 44 39 36 38 38 42 42

[AEWspotter]

Yeah it's not going to be in a good environment at all, but it should generally drift to the WNW then W over the next 5 days. It could be around for a while, so who knows what the future holds. The short term is very bleak. Model guidance points to 91L as the player... Could we get a hurricane?!

[gatorcane]

Saved short-wave GIF loop. You can see the center getting pulled NE into the convection. The invest should resume a more WNW movement over the next couple of days:

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 07 2013

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N34W TO 21N35W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N35W AND
REMAINS THE FOCUS OF A BROAD MONSOONAL GYRE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 27W-44W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE WAVE IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 17N26W AND THIS PLACES THE
WAVE BENEATH A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT. AS A
RESULT...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-20N
BETWEEN 28W-37W.

[CrazyC83]

Give this one a lot of credit for persistence in such a horrible atmosphere...

[Gustywind]

Give this one a lot of credit for persistence in such a horrible atmosphere...

He's a warrior !

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 98, 2013090800, , BEST, 0, 148N, 343W, 25, 1010, LO

[Gustywind]

By the way, our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe said in their latest weather forecast that next Thursday a twave (maybe related to 98L ) should bring a real deterioration of the weather with showers and possible tstorms. We will see if this trend continues as 98L treks west on the Atlantic Ocean.

Anyway, i will keep you informed if i've more on that and if anything happens in the (beautiful ) butterfly island

[gatorcane]

No mention at all in the NHC TWO? Kindaof puzzled by that given the convection has increased today and the upper-level conditions are not "very favorable" as they were saying a couple of days ago they would be. I guess the NHC figures it has no chance because of that so no need to mention.

Looking ahead for the next several days though, conditions don't look very favorable due to alot of dry air it will head into. Will probably need to wait to see if it manages to get past the swath of dry air it will run into. Then it could have a chance to organize more once it hits more favorable conditions further west.

I also noticed it is starting to move towards the NW again. The stall we saw today could be over.

[Hammy]

No mention at all in the NHC TWO? Kindaof puzzled by that given the convection has increased today and the upper-level conditions are not "very favorable" as they were saying a couple of days ago they would be. I guess the NHC figures it has no chance because of that so no need to mention.

Looking ahead for the next several days though, conditions don't look very favorable due to alot of dry air it will head into. Will probably need to wait to see if it manages to get past the swath of dry air it will run into. Then it could have a chance to organize more once it hits more favorable conditions further west.

I also noticed it is starting to move towards the NW again. The stall we saw today could be over.

still no mention, quite surprising given an increasingly defined surface circulation and rapidly increasing convection.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=AL982013&starting_image=2013AL98_4KMIRIMG_201309080130.GIF

[cycloneye]

Interesting discussion this morning from the San Juan NWS about 98L.

ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS INVEST 98L LOCATED NEAR
16.4N AND 36.5W. MODELS SHOW THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING WNW AND
THEN DIVING WSW REACHING PR OVR THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT
DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TC DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MID-UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR AHEAD OF IT MODELS SHOW FEATURE HOLDING TOGETHER AND
ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING SOME AS IT REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES FRI.
EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO BRING SOME ACTIVE WX NEXT WEEKEND.

[Gustywind]

Interesting discussion this morning from the San Juan NWS about 98L.

ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS INVEST 98L LOCATED NEAR
16.4N AND 36.5W. MODELS SHOW THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING WNW AND
THEN DIVING WSW REACHING PR OVR THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT
DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TC DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MID-UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR AHEAD OF IT MODELS SHOW FEATURE HOLDING TOGETHER AND
ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING SOME AS IT REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES FRI.
EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO BRING SOME ACTIVE WX NEXT WEEKEND.

Very interresting. What factor the models saw for this dive wsw? Any idea about that Cycloneye?

[Gustywind]

Our Pro Mets continue to forecast a very perturbed weather next Thursday with a stormy day with tstorms. Let's wait and see.