ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

it is starting to get that look but like others have said, I don't want to jinx it. It should be going through some of the hottest waters in the entire Atlantic basin the next couple of days and have some decent upper-level conditions to develop.

gator,

you think the upper level conditions are going to be decent in say 3 days?

I think they will actually be decent for development. Question will be the dry air though. That could inhibit development. The wind shear associated with the front enters the Northern Gulf by days 6 and 7. This systems should be out of the Gulf by then.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ronjon]

Yeah looks like center is trying to reform under the deep convection to the northeast of best track.

[MGC]

I think the dry air to 97L will keep it in check like 95L. At very most a TD or weak TS.....MGC


The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[Hammy]

Yeah looks like center is trying to reform under the deep convection to the northeast of best track.

Given the extremely favorable upper level situation to the northeast it will be interesting to see how the models react if this does indeed happen.

[blp]

The 500mb vorticity is still NE of the 850 & 700 which look be aligned.

500
http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/7725/zi5f.gif

850
http://img856.imageshack.us/img856/5147/cia.gif

[Dean4Storms]

Seeing an MLC going near 18.5N 80.5W headed NW just SE of the Grand Cayman Island.

[alienstorm]

If you look at the high visible loop the mid-level vort is located to the SE of Grand Cayman.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GANIMaeQ8fG2.jpg

[Dean4Storms]

If you look at the high visible loop the mid-level vort is located to the SE of Grand Cayman.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GANIMaeQ8fG2.jpg

Yep, that is the one I posted about just above your post. Need to watch that vort. 12z
GFS develops something further east and takes it over the western tip of Cuba.

12z GFS 850mb Vorticity....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013100112/gfs_z850_vort_watl.html

[HurricaneTracker2031]

wow this looks a lot better 48hrs ago

[blp]

I think 18z GFS has the right idea. The 850mb low will continue to move WNW making landfall in the Yucatan in 42hrs and dissipating while the 500mb vort(The one we have been seeing closer to the Caymans continues NW and shoots the gap and then aligns with a new 850mb Vort in the central Gulf and develops. No development for now until it appears in the Gulf . I expect the low and mid level vorts to continue to distance themselves in the next 48hrs.

42hr 850
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013100106/gfs_z850_vort_atl_15.png

42hr 500
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013100106/gfs_z500_vort_atl_15.png

[Frank P]

Looks to me convection near the broad low level center as such has been on the increase a tad...



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tropicwatch]

I was just looking at the blow up of convection. Lets see if it holds.

[northjaxpro]

Looks to me convection near the broad low level center as such has been on the increase a tad...



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree. Your circled area is where I believe a LLC is at this time. This is the most concentrated convection near where I have seen around that area to this point. The system has about a 36-48 hour window of opportunity to develop before conditions begin to go downhill for development.

[cycloneye]

No change at 8 PM TWO.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS
DISORGANIZED. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
LATE THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS COULD AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[blp]

Buoy at 17n 81.3w continues to show SE ESE winds so the LLC should be W to SW of this area.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

[jlauderdal]

does the squadron fly during the shutdown?

[Dean4Storms]

Buoy at 17n 81.3w continues to show SE ESE winds so the LLC should be W to SW of this area.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

I don't see any sign of an LLC yet, still an elongated trough.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 97, 2013100200, , BEST, 0, 174N, 838W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S

[blp]

00utc Vorticity maps have shifted. 700mb has now aligned with 500mb and now 850mb has become elongated. Could be the first signs of a shift further NE. Let's see if the 850 aligns.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor2&zoom=&time=

[CDO62]

does the squadron fly during the shutdown?

I was wondering the same thing. Here's what I found.......

Hurricane Hunters will fly, if needed, despite shutdown.

BILOXI, MS (WLOX) -

Vital hurricane information will not be jeopardized during a government shutdown. The Hurricane Hunters will continue to fly if needed. That word comes from Colonel Robert Palmer, the Director of Public Affairs for the Air Force Reserve Command at Robbins Air Force Base in Georgia.

Although the majority of the personnel of the 403rd Wing at Keesler are reservists and civilian DOD employees, if it's determined a mission is needed during a shutdown, the Hurricane Hunters would be in the air gathering storm information.

Copyright 2013 WLOX. All rights reserved.

http://www.wdam.com/story/23570836/hurr ... e-shutdown