EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

[dexterlabio]

Maybe the WHEM's only shot to have a major hurricane this year.

[Yellow Evan]

Euro acting out of character.

[hurricanes1234]

What would you say if I were to just mention something like pinhole eye? Or should I just keep the random words from spontaneously "popping out"?

[supercane4867]

Raymond appears to be rapidly clearing out an eye on IR loop

[hurricanes1234]

Raymond appears to be rapidly clearing out an eye on IR loop

What are your estimates on its strength right now, given that the eye is clearing out so quickly?

[supercane4867]

What are your estimates on its strength right now, given that the eye is clearing out so quickly?

75-80kt

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 OCT 2013 Time : 011500 UTC
Lat : 15:50:04 N Lon : 101:50:30 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 989.8mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 4.1 5.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -35.2C Cloud Region Temp : -71.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 45km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 35.9 degrees

[brunota2003]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt17E.html

Raw T# is 5.4...5.5 is 102 knots. Adjusted T# is 4.1. Personally, I would go with 75 knots, noting the intensity could be conservative! Just to ensure it won't randomly fall apart. Peak intensity in the ~95 knot range, for now. (Note: I DID say personally, I'm not a met).

[hurricanes1234]

Given the major hurricane-like appearance of this, I'm very surprised at how weak these estimates are. This has looked better than virtually all our EPAC storms in 2013. Compact, with a distinct eye in the middle, surrounded by a 360° ring of deep convection. I think the NHC will go with at least 75 knots, and personally, I think this may not be very far away from Category 2 status right now. But 59 knots seems very low, to me, seeing that this has a well-defined and symmetrical structure, and is extremely unlikely in my opinion to be below hurricane strength.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

Best Track has been updated to just below Category 2 status! 2 mbar higher than Henriette!


EP, 17, 2013102100, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1019W, 80, 978, HU

[Yellow Evan]

What would you say if I were to just mention something like pinhole eye? Or should I just keep the random words from spontaneously "popping out"?

That's not a phinole IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

Raymond appears to be rapidly clearing out an eye on IR loop

What are your estimates on its strength right now, given that the eye is clearing out so quickly?

I'd go with 85 knts.

[supercane4867]

New SHIPS run bring Raymond to MH status in 24 hours. Quite reasonable IMO

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 80 89 95 98 99 93 89 82 76 70 70 69 71
V (KT) LAND 80 89 95 98 99 93 89 82 76 70 70 69 71
V (KT) LGE mod 80 92 99 103 105 103 100 96 92 87 83 82 82

[CrazyC83]

Based on the estimate adjusted then, I would go all the way up to 90 kt now, trusting the raw data and trends.

[hurricanes1234]

Amazing. Very small but strong hurricane. Models were right on being aggressive on this. More like a 50% chance in my opinion this becomes a major. I'd suspect it's nearing that status all now.

[Yellow Evan]

Makes it look like a classic Tico 83 type major.

[hurricanes1234]

They might go with 100 mph.

[Yellow Evan]

They might go with 100 mph.

I agree, 85 is possible, maybe they're beating over it right now which is why the adv is taking forever.

[hurricanes1234]

They might go with 100 mph.

I agree, 85 is possible, maybe they're beating over it right now which is why the adv is taking forever.

I agree that this is a very challenging advisory to write, since they must not only decide its strength, but also its path given the recent rapid deepening trend.

[cycloneye]

85kts for advisory and is forecast to be major.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.3N 102.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.6N 101.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.8N 101.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.0N 101.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.