ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Annie Oakley]

Considering the track error at 5 days is something like 200 miles I wouldn't put much faith in the storm being 75 miles offshore... could be right over WPB or several hundred miles offshore.[/quote]

Perhaps the met. said that if it follows the current projected track, it will miss WPB by 75 miles to the east. I can't envision any local TV met. making that call with any certainty at this point when the storm hasn't passed the Lesser Antilles.[/quote]
Unfortunately some of the mets have been known to do such a thing. I think some tv mets truly don't understand the cone, just as many others don't. Sad, really.[/quote]

What if they understood the Models instead?

[Gustywind]

Doesn't matter how many time I visit this site or NHC, that Chantal is glued on to rain right on my head in the morning. Tried the "how close will it come" gizmo elsewhere and the centre will pass 1.4 miles away. Time to wish Barbados, Guadeloupe, Dominica and Martinique well - take care Gusty and Abajan - and open the rum!! If anyone has good news - like not much rain with this TS - I will happily share the bottle.

Thanks a lot, that's a very nice wink. I'm ok my friend. Take care of you too, be aware as usual. We continue to monitor closely Chantal.

[artist]

URNT12 KNHC 090055
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032013
A. 09/00:12:20Z
B. 12 deg 03 min N
055 deg 10 min W
C. NA
D. 30 kt
E. 305 deg 43 nm
F. 042 deg 32 kt
G. 304 deg 37 nm
H. EXTRAP 1012 mb
I. 23 C / 394 m
J. 23 C / 395 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 13 / 1
O. 0.02 / 7 nm
P. AF302 0103A CHANTAL OB 13
MAX FL WIND 58 KT 086/60 22:39:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;

[artist]

URNT12 KNHC 090055
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032013
A. 09/00:12:20Z
B. 12 deg 03 min N
055 deg 10 min W
C. NA
D. 30 kt
E. 305 deg 43 nm
F. 042 deg 32 kt
G. 304 deg 37 nm
H. EXTRAP 1012 mb
I. 23 C / 394 m
J. 23 C / 395 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 13 / 1
O. 0.02 / 7 nm
P. AF302 0103A CHANTAL OB 13
MAX FL WIND 58 KT 086/60 22:39:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;

[Blown Away]

00z models ... Big right shift in TVCN consensus

[Aric Dunn]

00z models ... Big right shift in TVCN consensus

if you look its of course by its very nature going to be right down the middle

[Stephanie]

Five days out is pretty far. Anything can happen BUT that general consensus amongst the different models sure suggests that Chantal will be somewhere near the East coast of Florida then.

[Evil Jeremy]

ozonepete and Stephanie, thanks for the feedback. I'll do the same updates with the mission tomorrow morning.

[summersquall]

12.3 N 55.1 W Maybe a little north of next forecast pt? (Let the wobble watching commence!) Be safe all islanders.

[Fyzn94]

I was surprised to see a pressure typical of a depression.

[ozonepete]

I was surprised to see a pressure typical of a depression.

They may have missed the lowest pressure. And most important, background pressures are higher than normal there right now - in meteorology, it's all relative.

(Well, Einstein would tell us it's all relative everywhere, all the time, lol.)

[Blown Away]

00z models ... Big right shift in TVCN consensus

if you look its of course by its very nature going to be right down the middle

LOL, I know... These exact situations is part of my love of the tropics... I like statistics and odds are always very low for a north Florida/Ga landfall from the east, so something has to give... The hard right after Hispaniola and hard left into Florida is hard to buy... NHC has to make a call soon with a turn towards Florida... NHC loves the TVCN and the track is usually close no matter where it goes...

[weatherwindow]

Wasn't Andrew like that with a 1016mb or so pressure at one point?

Good evening, Crazy....Yes, Andrew...Thurs, 20 Aug 1992..1100 EDT...1015mb and 45mph...Greetings from Key West, Rich

[abajan]

Doesn't matter how many time I visit this site or NHC, that Chantal is glued on to rain right on my head in the morning. Tried the "how close will it come" gizmo elsewhere and the centre will pass 1.4 miles away. Time to wish Barbados, Guadeloupe, Dominica and Martinique well - take care Gusty and Abajan - and open the rum!! If anyone has good news - like not much rain with this TS - I will happily share the bottle.

Very quiet here at the moment. No rain, no lightning, nothing. Will keep you guys posted.

[ozonepete]

Doesn't matter how many time I visit this site or NHC, that Chantal is glued on to rain right on my head in the morning. Tried the "how close will it come" gizmo elsewhere and the centre will pass 1.4 miles away. Time to wish Barbados, Guadeloupe, Dominica and Martinique well - take care Gusty and Abajan - and open the rum!! If anyone has good news - like not much rain with this TS - I will happily share the bottle.

Very quiet here at the moment. No rain, no lightning, nothing. Will keep you guys posted.

The calm before the storm, my friend. Hold on to your shorts. Should be pretty stormy but hopefully no damage. Keep us informed if you can but just stay safe above all.

[abajan]

Doesn't matter how many time I visit this site or NHC, that Chantal is glued on to rain right on my head in the morning. Tried the "how close will it come" gizmo elsewhere and the centre will pass 1.4 miles away. Time to wish Barbados, Guadeloupe, Dominica and Martinique well - take care Gusty and Abajan - and open the rum!! If anyone has good news - like not much rain with this TS - I will happily share the bottle.

Very quiet here at the moment. No rain, no lightning, nothing. Will keep you guys posted.

The calm before the storm, my friend. Hold on to your shorts. Should be pretty stormy but hopefully no damage. Keep us informed if you can but just stay safe above all.

Thanks. I'm going to catch some zzzs now.

Good Night.

[Aric Dunn]

Doesn't matter how many time I visit this site or NHC, that Chantal is glued on to rain right on my head in the morning. Tried the "how close will it come" gizmo elsewhere and the centre will pass 1.4 miles away. Time to wish Barbados, Guadeloupe, Dominica and Martinique well - take care Gusty and Abajan - and open the rum!! If anyone has good news - like not much rain with this TS - I will happily share the bottle.

Very quiet here at the moment. No rain, no lightning, nothing. Will keep you guys posted.

The calm before the storm, my friend. Hold on to your shorts. Should be pretty stormy but hopefully no damage. Keep us informed if you can but just stay safe above all.

well if your on the south side you wont have much wind.. plenty of rain though.

[meriland23]

worst case scenario in my eyes would be the center passing in that gap between DR and PR.. and making its wnw journey after that and then west. There would be limited land interaction..

[meriland23]

then again, it is moving so fast that it wouldn't surprise me one bit is any mountainous areas it crosses doesn't effect it fast enough to deteriorate it much since it will be back in the water again in the blink of a eye.

[floridasun78]

but shear waiting for it so it be very weak like td or low it will bring fl rain we use too