WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

The latest horrible news that has comed out from the area.

TACLOBAN, Philippines, Nov 10 (Reuters) - At least 10,000 people died in the central Philippine province of Leyte after Typhoon Haiyan, one of the strongest storms ever to make landfall, lashed the province, swallowing coastal towns, a senior police official said on Sunday.

About 70 to 80 percent of the area in the path of Haiyan in Leyte province was destroyed, said Chief Superintendent Elmer Soria.

"We had a meeting last night with the governor and the other officials. The governor said based on their estimate, 10,000 died," Soria told Reuters. (Reporting by Manuel Mogato; Editing by Eric Beech)

http://www.trust.org/item/20131110004338-5qgv8

[RL3AO]

I suspect this will be a 20,000 to 50,000 casualty storm.

[Alyono]

I suspect this will be a 20,000 to 50,000 casualty storm.

higher

[ozonepete]

85 KT matches satellite data

Are you talking about scatterometer passes or other ADT estimates such as TAFB?

[supercane4867]

The latest horrible news that has comed out from the area.
TACLOBAN, Philippines, Nov 10 (Reuters) - At least 10,000 people died in the central Philippine province of Leyte after Typhoon Haiyan

If there were 47,000 people live in Guiuan alone and they may not have been evacuated, I'm not surprised with this number at all

[Alyono]

85 KT matches satellite data

Are you talking about scatterometer passes or other ADT estimates such as TAFB?

multi-platform satellite analysis.

However, I suspect the ADT is under estimating this. Seems to have a similar signature as did Isabel, and that was a 90KT cane

[Alyono]

The latest horrible news that has comed out from the area.
TACLOBAN, Philippines, Nov 10 (Reuters) - At least 10,000 people died in the central Philippine province of Leyte after Typhoon Haiyan

If there were 47,000 people live in Guiuan alone and they may not have been evacuated, I'm not surprised with this number at all

Guiuan is NOT a part of Leyte province, I do not believe

[ozonepete]

I suspect this will be a 20,000 to 50,000 casualty storm.

higher

I hope you're not right but there's a really good chance you could be. This is so sad.

[ozonepete]

85 KT matches satellite data

Are you talking about scatterometer passes or other ADT estimates such as TAFB?

multi-platform satellite analysis.

However, I suspect the ADT is under estimating this. Seems to have a similar signature as did Isabel, and that was a 90KT cane

What are the components of this "multi-platform" satellite analysis? Does it include TAFB ADT? Also, it's interesting that you think it's underestimated and I think it's overestimated - of course that's why computer analysis is so important. We can't remember every image the way a computer program can.

[supercane4867]

ADT is obsessed with an defined eye on satellite imagery that it tends to reject any storm without one

[senorpepr]

The latest horrible news that has comed out from the area.
TACLOBAN, Philippines, Nov 10 (Reuters) - At least 10,000 people died in the central Philippine province of Leyte after Typhoon Haiyan

If there were 47,000 people live in Guiuan alone and they may not have been evacuated, I'm not surprised with this number at all

Guiuan is NOT a part of Leyte province, I do not believe

Absolutely correct... Guiuan is in Eastern Samar.

[supercane4867]

Guiuan is NOT a part of Leyte province, I do not believe

Absolutely correct... Guiuan is in Eastern Samar.

Not familiar with these regions in the Philippines

[ozonepete]

ADT is obsessed with an defined eye on satellite imagery that it tends to reject any storm without one

Lol, well that's a little exaggerated. It has multiple programs to assess TCs without an eye. It just tends to do best with ones that do. The problem is that we don't have any other particular product to use that has shown to do better. There are scatterometer products such as OSCAT and windsat and satellite cloud motion derived wind products that do a decent job with weaker storms but get too much back-scattering from heavy rain to do well with stronger ones. It is only ADT that told us that Haiyan was the strongest TC to ever make landfall. Every other product only played a supporting role. That's just the way the state of the art is right now - it is just the way it is.

[Mello1]

The latest horrible news that has comed out from the area.
TACLOBAN, Philippines, Nov 10 (Reuters) - At least 10,000 people died in the central Philippine province of Leyte after Typhoon Haiyan

If there were 47,000 people live in Guiuan alone and they may not have been evacuated, I'm not surprised with this number at all

Guiuan is NOT a part of Leyte province, I do not believe

Guiuan is in the Eastern Sanar...

[CrazyC83]

Based on the data and past Atlantic storms with similar structures and situations, 85 kt seems reasonable IMO (pressure about 942mb). The peak intensity isn't as important as the RMW and the wind field size now - both seem to be very large.

[cycloneye]

Ok folks.Prepare to read this first news from Guiuan.

2 Eastern Samar towns in ruins
by Rupert Ambil, posted on 11/10/2013 9:20 AM | Updated 11/10/2013 9:45 AM

CATBALOGAN CITY, Philippines - Giporlos and Guiuan in Eastern Samar are in ruins, with typhoon Yolanda damaging 95 percent of the two towns, according to eyewitness accounts on Sunday, November 10.

Because of the devastation, there are no clear estimates of casualties or survivors, they added.

Mark Biong, mayor of Giporlos, travelled 8 hours via a motorbike from his town to this city to report the devastation in Giporlos. In normal times, the road trip from Giporlos to Tacloban takes only one-and-half hours.

"It's total destruction," Biong told government officials and reporters here. At least 95% of the town has been damaged, he added. Giporlos is a coastal town, one of 22 municipalities of Eastern Samar. A 2010 census puts its population at 12,000.

Biong has no estimates of casualties or survivors.

The more remote town of Guiuan has also been flattened, leaving survivors helpless and triggering looting, according to Solar TV News reporter David Santos, who finally reached Tacloban City Sunday morning, November 9, after his communication lines were cut off for more than two days. He rode a motorbike

http://www.rappler.com/nation/43345-eas ... ns-yolanda

[Mello1]

CATBALOGAN CITY, Philippines - Giporlos and Guiuan in Eastern Samar are in ruins, with typhoon Yolanda damaging 95 percent of the two towns, according to eyewitness accounts on Sunday, November 10.

Because of the devastation, there are no clear estimates of casualties or survivors, they added.

Mark Biong, mayor of Giporlos, travelled 8 hours via a motorbike from his town to this city to report the devastation in Giporlos. In normal times, the road trip from Giporlos to Tacloban takes only one-and-half hours.

"It's total destruction," Biong told government officials and reporters here. At least 95% of the town has been damaged, he added. Giporlos is a coastal town, one of 22 municipalities of Eastern Samar. A 2010 census puts its population at 12,000.

http://www.rappler.com/nation/43345-eas ... ns-yolanda

xpost with Cycloneye...

[CrazyC83]

ADT is obsessed with an defined eye on satellite imagery that it tends to reject any storm without one

Lol, well that's a little exaggerated. It has multiple programs to assess TCs without an eye. It just tends to do best with ones that do. The problem is that we don't have any other particular product to use that has shown to do better. There are scatterometer products such as OSCAT and windsat and satellite cloud motion derived wind products that do a decent job with weaker storms but get too much back-scattering from heavy rain to do well with stronger ones. It is only ADT that told us that Haiyan was the strongest TC to ever make landfall. Every other product only played a supporting role. That's just the way the state of the art is right now - it is just the way it is.

Subjective human-based Dvorak estimates also had a T8.0 as Haiyan approached landfall. Right now, it looks like between a T4.5 and T5.0.

[tolakram]

Latest saved loop. Still some very impressive cloud tops.

[tolakram]

SSTs do get cooler closer to the coast but looks warm enough to support a typhoon.