ATL: KAREN - Models

[Annie Oakley]

the EC has predicted 2 of the 10 storms so far

How long before a few here stop hugging the euro?

Glad a Met said it. I've been saying this all along. Euro is way over hyped on here. A blend of models should always be used.

That sounds like the NHC talking.

[ROCK]

the EC has predicted 2 of the 10 storms so far

How long before a few here stop hugging the euro?

If it's so bad then why does the NHC rely on it so much? Past 3 years average it has out performed the GFS and every other model. That is factual data....

I hug the new NAVGEM and the Euro.....btw..

[WeatherEmperor]

the EC has predicted 2 of the 10 storms so far

How long before a few here stop hugging the euro?

If it's so bad then why does the NHC rely on it so much? Past 3 years average it has out performed the GFS and every other model. That is factual data....

I hug the new NAVGEM and the Euro.....btw..

The NHC doesnt rely on any individual model so much. Instead they mostly rely on a model consensus...which is why models such as the TVCN exists. In fact, if you closely examine their forecast tracks, they tend to be closer to the multi model consensus than to any individual model. Simply favoring the Euro because it has outperformed all the other individual models in previous years is not always a good thing to do because while that may be factually correct, it has struggled with cyclone genesis this year 2013 just like Alyono suggested in his post. The past is the past and 2013 is...well its 2013.

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[stephen23]

Looks like new run of GFS trying to show a minimal hurricane into panhandle

[ROCK]

oh I agree but hard not to go with a model that is number 1 in verification. Especially 60hrs out.....that said the 0z GFS has a moderate TS in FL at 60 hrs.... Let's see if tonight's Euro follows it's lead on development and track..

Btw- the TVCN is just a blended of model tracks that include the Euro. Not a model per say....

[supercane4867]

00Z GFS shows 984mb at landfall, solid Cat1

[ROCK]

Yep solid cat 1 from the GFS at 72hrs....only model showing this attm....maybe the euro later will come around....maybe not...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Should be concentrating on the front. How fast its moving and how strong it is from run to run. That should give the best idea as to where this possible system will go. Any delay or slow down or speeding up could cause some decent model swings tomorrow into Friday.

Will use this last front as an example. On last Thursday they were forecasting a moderately strong front passing through making it to the gulf. Well Saturday came and it stalled in east Texas for a couple days til it basically washed out this week. The only thing that knocked temps down was the clouds and rain. Point being a lot can change in just two days. I sure hope the front comes barreling through here and sweeps clean through the gulf. I'm ready for the fall fishing run to begin

[LaBreeze]

Yep solid cat 1 from the GFS at 72hrs....only model showing this attm....maybe the euro later will come around....maybe not...

Where does the GFS position this system at 72 hrs? I know it's just a model -but I was wondering. What does the euro show for 72 hrs? Thanks in advance.

[Pearl River]

Since some were talking about how the EURO hasn't performed very well this season so far,this was in the New Orleans AFD this afternoon. The forecaster brought this up:

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEND MIXED MESSAGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE WAVE. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT OPEN WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION DEVELOPS. THESE MODELS WERE NOT DESIGNED TO FORECAST
CYCLOGENESIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES. HOWEVER... CAN GIVE A GOOD IDEA
OF TIMING.

[LarryWx]

Folks,
The 0Z Thu Euro is finally caving into the much more realistic GFS with it having 97L ~100 miles east of its 12Z and earlier runs at hour 42 and significantly more organized with lower SLP vs. its earlier runs. I expect it to come even further east and be even stronger in later runs. It is still ~100 miles west of the 0Z GFS.

[caneman]

Last I saw prior to this year. On a scale of 100 - Euro would get 51, GFS - 49 that is statistically insignificant. And again, that was prior to this year. When factoring in this year, they are most likely even or very near it. Further, when you consider UKMET has been the most accurate at genesis, this gives even more reason to use a blend. Just my 2 or 3 cents worth.

[Janie2006]

Oi. I merely asked a question about the Euro's run-to-run consistency with this system. It's a computer model, not the Almighty. No hugging required.

[ronjon]

06z GFS into big bend of FL - slightly stronger and east of the 00z run.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013100306/gfs_mslp_wind_watl.html

[tolakram]

I missed the boat on this one but pretty amazing model agreement for the general track of 97.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

Not that the GFS is the outlier to the east of the other models.

[tolakram]

Some saved landfall predictions from the current model run.

[Steve]

ronjon,

That would actually be Panama City on the 06Z. Big Bend is where the peninsula merges with the panhandle over around to the other side (roughly Apalachee Bay). But I think that's where the weather is if the 06Z is right. What's interesting on that model run was what I was posting about last night with the track of T.S. Fitow. There is massive ridging again in the Atlantic which would open the SE US up again after mid next week if anything happens to be there.

I think the 06z GFS tends to be a little right biased, but either way, I have it coming in about 75 miles west of there in the Navarre/Ft. Walton area so it's pretty much the same thing in the big scheme.

[northjaxpro]

ronjon,

That would actually be Panama City on the 06Z. Big Bend is where the peninsula merges with the panhandle over around to the other side (roughly Apalachee Bay). But I think that's where the weather is if the 06Z is right. What's interesting on that model run was what I was posting about last night with the track of T.S. Fitow. There is massive ridging again in the Atlantic which would open the SE US up again after mid next week if anything happens to be there.

I think the 06z GFS tends to be a little right biased, but either way, I have it coming in about 75 miles west of there in the Navarre/Ft. Walton area so it's pretty much the same thing in the big scheme.

The GFS in my view has had the best handle of Karen and I am definitely leaning toward COC coming ashore across the Florida panhandle and possibly the Big Bend.

[Steve]

>>The GFS in my view has had the best handle of Karen and I am definitely leaning toward COC coming ashore across the Florida panhandle and possibly the Big Bend.

I agree with a landfalling center in the Panhandle. And I agree that GFS hs done pretty good (at least compared to some other primary models which will remain nameless). But you have to look run to run and year after year to know its tendencies. 06z and 18z are often right biased, whereas 12z and 00z are usually more indicative of swings back to more likely paths. This isn't always the case, but it's happened countless enough times to take it with that proverbial grain of salt. Now if the front is faster and/or the trough wider at the base, you could see a move toward the ENE or something which would mean the COC could jog a bit. But I think while the weather is going to be in those areas, the center is likely to come in further west. Again, I have Santa Rosa/Okaloosa Counties targeted with a mid-grade system in my gun to the head guess from last night. So I'm just going to stick with that (acknowledging that the warning area covers points from SSW of me and far east of the likely landfall).

This post is NOT official.

[stormlover2013]

I know this model is bad but nam has it still in la

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php