ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 39.6W
ABOUT 1550 MI...2500 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

[boca]

If Dorian makes it to Florida like someone posted earlier today it will be in the 2% chance category.Will see Im staying up for the 00GFS run.

[abajan]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

For all the folks predicting Dorian's demise, I'll have to check the records but I think at one point Andrew looked worse than this.

[cycloneye]

More closer to Puerto Rico now.

[Nederlander]

I see a few posts about belief of a E. Coast threat or recurve, but the models consensus doesn't support that right now. Just curious as to what your reasons are or what data you have to back that up? Or is it purely based on clinging to CLIMO? Anomalies happen in the tropics all the time. It's all about the current setup. Granted the models flip flop and tomorrow the consensus could be a FISH storm, but I am enjoying the discussion, just would like to hear more support for your claims besides, "I believe" or "my gut feeling is", etc.. A lot of people on this site know a lot about weather and we collectively know way more than the general public. Should be careful with what "we think will happen". There are a lot of lurkers who do not post and may take something and run with it. Love this site; not complaining, just like it better with data to support claims and encouraging more discussion.

[Blown Away]

If the GFS keeps pushing S at some point the NHC may make significant track change and PR is in the middle!!

[gatorcane]

This snippet of discussion is alot different than previous ones where the NHC mentioned the weakness in the ridge by day 5 which would cause Dorian to slow down:

THE ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD
IN TANDEM WITH DORIAN THROUGH DAY 3...BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL EVOLVE INTO A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA BY DAYS 4 AND 5.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0241.shtml?

That's not really a recurve pattern at all.

[TheStormExpert]

I just don't see Dorian lasting too much longer! The discussion kind of seems less confident than it did at 5pm that this storm will survive the next 5 days.

[TheStormExpert]

This snippet of discussion is alot different than previous ones where the NHC mentioned the weakness in the ridge by day 5 which would cause Dorian to slow down:

THE ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD
IN TANDEM WITH DORIAN THROUGH DAY 3...BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL EVOLVE INTO A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA BY DAYS 4 AND 5.

That's not really a recurve pattern at all.

Is this pattern similar to the one present when Ike made its SW dive into Cuba?

[ROCK]

I see a few posts about belief of a E. Coast threat or recurve, but the models consensus doesn't support that right now. Just curious as to what your reasons are or what data you have to back that up? Or is it purely based on clinging to CLIMO? Anomalies happen in the tropics all the time. It's all about the current setup. Granted the models flip flop and tomorrow the consensus could be a FISH storm, but I am enjoying the discussion, just would like to hear more support for your claims besides, "I believe" or "my gut feeling is", etc.. A lot of people on this site know a lot about weather and we collectively know way more than the general public. Should be careful with what "we think will happen". There are a lot of lurkers who do not post and may take something and run with it. Love this site; not complaining, just like it better with data to support claims and encouraging more discussion.

If you read my post I was attempting to bring humor to the thread...Tampico to NE gut feeling??....guess it didnt work out so well...

all we have is current guidance so that is what we and NHC goes off of....really no trick to reading what the models are showing.....so we wait for the 0Z GFS, NAVGEM, EURO coming up....

[boca]

Im wondering how Dorian because of its size with survive that ULL at 27N and 60W it has a big circulation envelope that looks like it could eat Dorian for dinner.I wouldn't be surprised if dorian opened up into a wave once it gets at 60w by the lesser antiles

[TheStormExpert]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

For all the folks predicting Dorian's demise, I'll have to check the records but I think at one point Andrew looked worse than this.

We haven't seen a storm in the Atlantic come even close to the intensity of Andrew in years! I'll just say this will probably be lucky to ever become a minimal hurricane at best!

[tailgater]

The first 3 days certainly look pausable.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm suprised the 11pm discussion did not mention anything about the ULL east of the Bahamas.

[ROCK]

0Z NAM is rolling....nice to see upstream whats going on...

36hrs

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... mageSize=M

[gatorcane]

This snippet of discussion is alot different than previous ones where the NHC mentioned the weakness in the ridge by day 5 which would cause Dorian to slow down:

THE ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD
IN TANDEM WITH DORIAN THROUGH DAY 3...BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL EVOLVE INTO A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA BY DAYS 4 AND 5.

That's not really a recurve pattern at all.

Is this pattern similar to the one present when Ike made its SW dive into Cuba?

I don't normally post models in this thread but to explain this Northeast-to-southwest ridge they are talking about take a look at the blue circle I drew in the 18Z GFS 500MB chart for day 5. That is what they are talking about:

[Nederlander]

I see a few posts about belief of a E. Coast threat or recurve, but the models consensus doesn't support that right now. Just curious as to what your reasons are or what data you have to back that up? Or is it purely based on clinging to CLIMO? Anomalies happen in the tropics all the time. It's all about the current setup. Granted the models flip flop and tomorrow the consensus could be a FISH storm, but I am enjoying the discussion, just would like to hear more support for your claims besides, "I believe" or "my gut feeling is", etc.. A lot of people on this site know a lot about weather and we collectively know way more than the general public. Should be careful with what "we think will happen". There are a lot of lurkers who do not post and may take something and run with it. Love this site; not complaining, just like it better with data to support claims and encouraging more discussion.

If you read my post I was attempting to bring humor to the thread...Tampico to NE gut feeling??....guess it didnt work out so well...

all we have is current guidance so that is what we and NHC goes off of....really no trick to reading what the models are showing.....so we wait for the 0Z GFS, NAVGEM, EURO coming up....

Lol yeah I caught it ROCK.. I wasn't implicating your attempt at sarcasm ... I knew what you meant..

[Nikki]

This snippet of discussion is alot different than previous ones where the NHC mentioned the weakness in the ridge by day 5 which would cause Dorian to slow down:

THE ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD
IN TANDEM WITH DORIAN THROUGH DAY 3...BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL EVOLVE INTO A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA BY DAYS 4 AND 5.

That's not really a recurve pattern at all.

Is this pattern similar to the one present when Ike made its SW dive into Cuba?

I don't normally post models in this thread but to explain this Northeast-to-southwest ridge they are talking about take a look at the blue circle I drew in the 18Z GFS 500MB chart for day 5. That is what they are talking about:

If the blue circle is a ridge, wouldn't that cause Dorian to go SW instead of a recurve? Please don't beat me up to bad, I truly am a novice!!

[sharoncapecod]

I see a few posts about belief of a E. Coast threat or recurve, but the models consensus doesn't support that right now. Just curious as to what your reasons are or what data you have to back that up? Or is it purely based on clinging to CLIMO? Anomalies happen in the tropics all the time. It's all about the current setup. Granted the models flip flop and tomorrow the consensus could be a FISH storm, but I am enjoying the discussion, just would like to hear more support for your claims besides, "I believe" or "my gut feeling is", etc.. A lot of people on this site know a lot about weather and we collectively know way more than the general public. Should be careful with what "we think will happen". There are a lot of lurkers who do not post and may take something and run with it. Love this site; not complaining, just like it better with data to support claims and encouraging more discussion.

If you read my post I was attempting to bring humor to the thread...Tampico to NE gut feeling??....guess it didnt work out so well...

all we have is current guidance so that is what we and NHC goes off of....really no trick to reading what the models are showing.....so we wait for the 0Z GFS, NAVGEM, EURO coming up....

Sorry, I guess I am one of thoses lurkers, I havent posted much.. I do only go by model data but wasnt sure if there was something I wasnt seeing. Been taking some courses on Meted but still learning..I do get a lot of good tips from these discussion so thank you!

[northjaxpro]

This snippet of discussion is alot different than previous ones where the NHC mentioned the weakness in the ridge by day 5 which would cause Dorian to slow down:

THE ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD
IN TANDEM WITH DORIAN THROUGH DAY 3...BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN
SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL EVOLVE INTO A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA BY DAYS 4 AND 5.

That's not really a recurve pattern at all.

Is this pattern similar to the one present when Ike made its SW dive into Cuba?

I don't normally post models in this thread but to explain this Northeast-to-southwest ridge they are talking about take a look at the blue circle I drew in the 18Z GFS 500MB chart for day 5. That is what they are talking about:

If the Ridge is oriented like that, then Dorian will pull west or west-southwest eventually with that kind of orientation of the ridge. That would put him potentially right through the islands and could finish him off in the next 5 days.