ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ROCK]

0Z GFS....the new one taking its sweet time to load.....right now the header is up but no initialization.....ugh

[South Texas Storms]

[img]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW_sm3.gif

Is that map from this afternoon or the latest info?

That map was made at 1:22 pm this afternoon.

[meriland23]

Sat images showing slight pink coming back into convection on last frame



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[WeatherEmperor]

0Z GFS....the new one taking its sweet time to load.....right now the header is up but no initialization.....ugh

I was just about to ask if somebody could check on that. Oh well i guess we wait

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[South Texas Storms]

0Z GFS....the new one taking its sweet time to load.....right now the header is up but no initialization.....ugh

I was just about to ask if somebody could check on that. Oh well i guess we wait

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

Yeah they are still working on getting the mag site back to normal fast speed. In the meantime, use this site for fast updating models.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[South Texas Storms]

So far through 66 hrs, the 0z GFS is slightly stronger and slower compared to the 18z run.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_21.png

[HURAKAN]

center exposed

[ROCK]

So far through 66 hrs, the 0z GFS is slightly stronger and slower compared to the 18z run.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_21.png

thanks STS!!! you have the com!!

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

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[HurricaneMaster_PR]

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[meriland23]

18z 75 hr



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00z 69 hr



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...definitely stronger and a bit further S this run

[South Texas Storms]

Approaching Puerto Rico at 93 hrs.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_30.png

[chaser1]

The NHC mentioned they leaned more on the ECMWF track for the 11 PM EST discussion:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0241.shtml
Well here is the 12Z ECMWF 120 hour position for Dorian. Pretty good low-level ridge to the north and since Dorian stays weak it keeps moving west eventually through the FL straits on this run:

I realize that this is simply the surface level, but tell me that this doesn't at least look like the "mother of all N. Atlantic Omega blocks"?? Just doesn't look quite right without a mid-Atlantic trough, and a digging short wave about to plunge down the Eastern seaboard, with some chain-saw TUTT like feature hovering southwest of Bermuda

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

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[South Texas Storms]

It looks like the 0z GFS takes it south of PR at 108 hrs this run.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_35.png

[Riptide]

Shades of Hurricane Ike.....Mind blowing ridge...it is July afterall. GFS wants Dorian to visit the Eastern Carribean graveyard instead.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

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[South Texas Storms]

I think this is the furthest south run of the GFS so far. If it misses Hispaniola, I wonder if it will make it into the Gulf on this run.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

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[SouthFloridawx]

From Wikipedia

Dorian /ˈdɔəriən/ is a name of Greek origin meaning "from Doris", or alternatively from the Gaelic name Doireann meaning "tempestuous weather".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dorian_(name)