ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

150 hr... about to make landfall in central florida melbourne area

[meriland23]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=atlantic&param=850_vort_ht&cycle=00&image=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_atlantic_144_850_vort_ht.gif


yep west we go into the EC of FL.....this is more central coast than up near Jacksonville...I think....

Yes, much further south than last run, if this heads due west like last run, it will go over FL into the GOM instead of trailing along the SE coast...

[storm4u]

seemed like it was going to be further north I think its something to watch in future runs I think south carolina will eventually be the landfall point.. ive seen it many times where the ridge is weaker then models show

[ROCK]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?mode ... ort_ht.gif

[WeatherEmperor]

[quote="Miami Storm Tracker"]Hey Rock,

Thank you so much for posting the run. Going to crash will be looking tomorrow morning to see what your favorite model shows.

yeah me too...the EURO is too late more me tonight....

Nonsense. I dont want to hear any excuses from you Rock. Post the Euro run!

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

I'll do it, just got a cup of coffee after all LOL[/quote]

Haha thanks. Im very curious as to what the Euro will show tonight

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[Aric Dunn]

if you watch the loop you can see a good deal more right skirting the right side of DR then the steering breaks down then strong ridge builds from the NE and turns west south of the 18z pretty same as 12z then starts to drift and intensify

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

link dont show not thing

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/list_files_are ... 00_vort_ht

[Bocadude85]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=atlantic&param=850_vort_ht&cycle=00&image=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_atlantic_144_850_vort_ht.gif


yep west we go into the EC of FL.....this is more central coast than up near Jacksonville...I think....

Yea landfall looks to be quite a bit further south then the 18z run. Your right this reminds me of Jeanne also

[Aric Dunn]

stronger this run too.

[Aric Dunn]

center coming into view on long range out of barbados heading right for it. pushing 14 n already.


http://www.barbadosweather.org/RadarPro ... player.php

[meriland23]

00z run @156 hrs



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

18z run.. same time



Uploaded with ImageShack.us


significantly further south than last run..

[ROCK]

162hr moving across FL....still this is big time med range for the GFS....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?mode ... ort_ht.gif

[Riptide]

Chantal moves WSW north of the Bahamas, lol. Would be interesting to see this play out, assuming the system is not too damaging.

[floridasun78]

if you watch the loop you can see a good deal more right skirting the right side of DR then the steering breaks down then strong ridge builds from the NE and turns west south of the 18z pretty same as 12z then starts to drift and intensify

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

link dont show not thing

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/list_files_are ... 00_vort_ht

ty

[CYCLONE MIKE]

And its still showing the next system lined up waiting in the mid Atlantic as well.

[boca]

How strong is the high on this run?

[ROCK]

its slower....reason for the difference in the 18Z...the ridge builds back in before it can get too far north....

[floridasun78]

Chantal moves WSW north of the Bahamas, lol. Would be interesting to see this play out, assuming the system is not too damaging.

i notice that katrina did that too as hurr got alot people by supprise in broward and dade it came in doing rush hour alot traffic on highway

[SFLcane]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=atlantic&param=850_vort_ht&cycle=00&image=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_atlantic_144_850_vort_ht.gif


yep west we go into the EC of FL.....this is more central coast than up near Jacksonville...I think....

Yea landfall looks to be quite a bit further south then the 18z run. Your right this reminds me of Jeanne also

Indeed tad further south probable moderate cane

edit..gulf it is

[Bocadude85]

Chantal moves WSW north of the Bahamas, lol. Would be interesting to see this play out, assuming the system is not too damaging.

I was just about to mention this. I saw the wsw dip also

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thinking by the time the 10am advisory comes out the nhc will start showing the turn more westward IF the gfs and other ensembles are still showing this potential forecast track.