ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[AtlanticWind]

The key will be where it stalls ,if it survives the DR crossing.It could stall sooner and the threat will be to south florida or as the Gfs shows now the threat is to central florida or maybe stalls later and turns into north florida/Georgia.


This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[BobHarlem]

center coming into view on long range out of barbados heading right for it. pushing 14 n already.


http://www.barbadosweather.org/RadarPro ... player.php

That link doesn't work from here, you have to go to the main page.

There's a much longer radar loop of it at http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?154

[ROCK]

180hr dipping Sw over FL....about to come out into the GOM....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?mode ... ort_ht.gif

[Aric Dunn]

Thinking by the time the 10am advisory comes out the nhc will start showing the turn more westward IF the gfs and other ensembles are still showing this potential forecast track.

global models though not perfect do very well with large synoptic patterns and given the trend on this ridge and that its only 5 days out.. there probably wont be much change in track ... only shifts north or south a little faster a little slower but other wise they will likely keep the same general idea.

[Riptide]

180hr dipping Sw over FL....about to come out into the GOM....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?mode ... ort_ht.gif

Something for the whole board to track...

[ROCK]

189hr back into the GOM.....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?mode ... ort_ht.gif

[Aric Dunn]

180hr dipping Sw over FL....about to come out into the GOM....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?mode ... ort_ht.gif

just when you think the ridge cant get any stronger the GFS does it.. lol

though none of this will matter much if it does not survive.. DR

[meriland23]

I have a hard time believing anything would be left after it crosses the entire central part of FL and gets into the GOm

[Florida1118]

I have a hard time believing anything would be left after it crosses the entire central part of FL and gets into the GOm

Florida is flat as flat gets. Rarely is there anything over 100ft, and there are many lakes. While not at all good, storms like Fay have proved FL doesnt weaken them all that much compared to other land masses.

[Aric Dunn]

I have a hard time believing anything would be left after it crosses the entire central part of FL and gets into the GOm

yeah it would be intact it would weaken but florida is flat and full of swamp.. they can maintain very well over florida.

[AtlanticWind]

Takes a while to cross florida ,lots of rain.

[ROCK]

216hr heading to LA again

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?mode ... precip.gif

[Aric Dunn]

center coming into view on long range out of barbados heading right for it. pushing 14 n already.


http://www.barbadosweather.org/RadarPro ... player.php

That link doesn't work from here, you have to go to the main page.

There's a much longer radar loop of it at http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?154

http://www.barbadosweather.org/barbados ... Driver.php

[ROCK]

180hr dipping Sw over FL....about to come out into the GOM....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?mode ... ort_ht.gif

just when you think the ridge cant get any stronger the GFS does it.. lol

though none of this will matter much if it does not survive.. DR

agree..... its a weird run for sure....

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I have a hard time believing anything would be left after it crosses the entire central part of FL and gets into the GOm

More than likely there would be unless it stalls and dies. There have been several storms that have crossed Florida that have kept their inner core intact only to restrengthen once they make it into the gulf.

[meriland23]

as soon as it gets into GOM... takes a northern curve..



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[WeatherEmperor]

180hr dipping Sw over FL....about to come out into the GOM....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?mode ... ort_ht.gif

just when you think the ridge cant get any stronger the GFS does it.. lol

though none of this will matter much if it does not survive.. DR

agree..... its a weird run for sure....

Start brewing some coffee. You are posting the Euro next

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[BigB0882]

It looks to have hardly moved between 180hrs and 189hrs. Another stall before taking off?

[Jevo]

0z MSLP Loop

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

[ROCK]

someone can post the rest of the run.....its la la land anyway after about 160hr ....240hr it heads across the GOM into LA and works all the way across to Texas (inland)