ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Still looks like Gabrielle's remants and the associated surface trough are just hanging around with maybe a slight drift to the north which is what I have been anticipating the past couple of days as far as what this area would do.

Looks like the weakness will remain for the next 48-72 hours or so then trough begins to lift out and so if the disturbed area does not make a connection with the trough then the area could linger and drift around even further and upper-level conditions look to improve once the trough lifts out allowing for some development.

low level ridging already building back in. may get stuck.

[tropicwatch]

Current Conditions:


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Discombobulated

[beoumont]

Like most federal budgets, the recon. budget is on the fiscal year schedule, which runs from Oct. 1 to Sept. 30th. If they don't use up this year's budget, there is no rollover into next year's monetary allotment. Since there have been so few flights so far this year, despite the sequester, there is still "money to burn".

I recall a couple of times in late Sept., in slow years, when NOAA flew E. Pac storms that they usually wouldn't fly; and lo and behold, got to spend several nights at hotels in Acapulco between missions.

[gatorcane]

Still looks like Gabrielle's remants and the associated surface trough are just hanging around with maybe a slight drift to the north which is what I have been anticipating the past couple of days as far as what this area would do.

Looks like the weakness will remain for the next 48-72 hours or so then trough begins to lift out and so if the disturbed area does not make a connection with the trough then the area could linger and drift around even further and upper-level conditions look to improve once the trough lifts out allowing for some development.

low level ridging already building back in. may get stuck.

Yeah certainly looks like it doesn't it?

The setup we are seeing now is similar to what we see with some Western Caribbean systems in October where models tend to want to eject the system out of the Western Caribbean to the North or Northeast too quickly (because of an approaching trough over SE United States and Gulf) but that fails to always materialize.

[SeGaBob]

NHC hasn't posted a special TWO yet so I'm assuming they will wait until 8pm to say they didn't find a well defined center.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ROCK]

Current Conditions:
http://img545.imageshack.us/img545/1439/tt8g.png

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Discombobulated

that looks like a huge train wreck!!

[ROCK]

Like most federal budgets, the recon. budget is on the fiscal year schedule, which runs from Oct. 1 to Sept. 30th. If they don't use up this year's budget, there is no rollover into next year's monetary allotment. Since there have been so few flights so far this year, despite the sequester, there is still "money to burn".

I recall a couple of times in late Sept., in slow years, when NOAA flew E. Pac storms that they usually wouldn't fly; and lo and behold, got to spend several nights at hotels in Acapulco between missions.

correct....use it or lose it....so why not use it....

you dont want to lose it because in the corporate world (my world) some higher ups might think next year will be the same type of season and reduce the budget. Then you end up asking for more money because the season is active and I can tell you asking for money is never a good thing!!

[SeGaBob]

Thunderstorms seem to be diminishing for now with it being DMIN but maybe DMAX will increase it again... but probably not to the point of regeneration.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

20%-40%

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED THIS
SYSTEM EARLIER TODAY AND DID NOT FIND A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...
AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED. ANY
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHEN IT MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[CrazyC83]

Like most federal budgets, the recon. budget is on the fiscal year schedule, which runs from Oct. 1 to Sept. 30th. If they don't use up this year's budget, there is no rollover into next year's monetary allotment. Since there have been so few flights so far this year, despite the sequester, there is still "money to burn".

I recall a couple of times in late Sept., in slow years, when NOAA flew E. Pac storms that they usually wouldn't fly; and lo and behold, got to spend several nights at hotels in Acapulco between missions.

correct....use it or lose it....so why not use it....

you dont want to lose it because in the corporate world (my world) some higher ups might think next year will be the same type of season and reduce the budget. Then you end up asking for more money because the season is active and I can tell you asking for money is never a good thing!!

Did they consider flying into Lorena at all? That seems like a storm they might have considered a Recon flight into.

[gatorcane]

Latest IR saved GIF loop. Looks like it is just meandering around and I do think chances are going up that this develops into something before all is said and done. It's going to be a slow and gradual process though...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HURAKAN]

Did they consider flying into Lorena at all? That seems like a storm they might have considered a Recon flight into.

Only hurricanes are flown in the EPAC

[Blinhart]

Latest IR saved GIF loop. Looks like it is just meandering around and I do think chances are going up that this develops into something before all is said and done. It's going to be a slow and gradual process though...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I wouldn't be shocked to see this get divided again, with the system that is over the Dominican Republic and in the Caribbean Sea separate from the other stuff that is out of the Caribbean Sea. This season has been so awkward why not do something else that is not really common.

[blp]

Get ready for another burst just north of DR during DMAX. Convergence is very strong and compact and 700 & 800 Vorticity is still good.

[Sanibel]

Shortwave makes it look like it just did a bizarre center relocation south of Hispaniola.

[floridasun78]

i read in ex GABRIELLE - Remnants models page that high building east again? could that ex GABRIELLE to stall?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Current Conditions:


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Discombobulated

That's an understatement. Looks like a sheared strung out mess. I sure can't remember any season where so much attention was paid to things looking like this

[cycloneye]

SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE WHILE IT MOVES
NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

20-40% Again

[gatorcane]

The area continues to persist and looks like it is gradually getting more organized. There is alot of westerly shear hitting it at the moment which is keeping quick organization in check for the time being. But upper-levels winds look to gradually improve starting in a couple of days once the trough starts to pull out of the Western Atlantic.

Here is the latest VIS GIF loop where I would put any kind of low-level center on the western edge of the blob of convection: