ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[thetruesms]

Tonight, we're secretly switching this board's GFS with CMC/GEM crystals. Can these people tell the difference?




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_Gtb1kElRk if the reference is unfamiliar

[Aric Dunn]

Tonight, we're secretly switching this board's GFS with CMC/GEM crystals. Can these people tell the difference?




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_Gtb1kElRk if the reference is unfamiliar

hmm??.... well this cmc... basically the same idea large ridge... cmc only farther north because its faster.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[SouthFloridawx]

Yeah you are absolutely right. I guess when I typed I was thinking of the mainland US, lol. In no way trying to make the threat down there any less important.

Hope you guys stay safe.

I wouldn't start getting excited about this one until after it crosses Hispaniola.

Well, unless you live in the island chain...

[Aric Dunn]

look at that low lvl cloud deck thicken on the north side some convection starting to grow there now..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

radar also confirming this.. starting to fill in..

[SouthFloridawx]

Those cells are just flying.

center coming into view on long range out of barbados heading right for it. pushing 14 n already.
http://www.barbadosweather.org/RadarPro ... player.php

That link doesn't work from here, you have to go to the main page.
There's a much longer radar loop of it at http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?154

http://www.barbadosweather.org/barbados ... Driver.php

[Ivanhater]

Just seeing the impressive waves coming off Africa and seeing the models showing what they are in July is insane!

[thetruesms]

hmm??.... well this cmc... basically the same idea large ridge... cmc only farther north because its faster.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Was making a joke that with the GFS aggressively developing seemingly every wave to come off of Africa, it was behaving more like the CMC

[ROCK]

the mighty NAVGEM is stuck on 120hrs.....dang it....

[meriland23]

I am staying up a bit, checking out the convection since it is starting to pop a bit, see how that pans out for a while. Anyone else want some coffee while I am up? Cream? Sugar? LOl

[meriland23]

Hopefully the euro this time around isn't faulty like the last run.. want to be able to see somethin'

[Aric Dunn]

I am staying up a bit, checking out the convection since it is starting to pop a bit, see how that pans out for a while. Anyone else want some coffee while I am up? Cream? Sugar? LOl

sure why not

[Hammy]

sort of interesting to see on radar, nothing but easterly winds then suddenly swirling coming into view. That aside, its looking based on radar that Chantal will probably pass over or just north of Barbados (probably within the 100km area)

[Aric Dunn]

hmm??.... well this cmc... basically the same idea large ridge... cmc only farther north because its faster.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Was making a joke that with the GFS aggressively developing seemingly every wave to come off of Africa, it was behaving more like the CMC

oh ok.. lol yeah but it has done a great job thus far this year.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, Ivanhater I have seen them also. This is looking very August-like with the CV train of waves already showing up in the long range model suites. This is looking very ominous for sure for many, especially if the Bermuda High continues to flex its strength in the coming weeks. Lots of nervous and interesting days ahead.

There would be no escape or curve out to sea for these CV systems should the Bermuda ridge stays strong as the models are hinting at long term. Chantal just may be a harbinger of things to come, which is a very ominous thought indeed.

[ROCK]

finally.....full loop of the all powerful NAVGEM.....LA again

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Ivanhater]

Yeah, Ivanhater I have seen them also. This is looking very August-like with the CV train of waves already showing up in the long range model suites. This is looking very ominous for sure for many, especially if the Bermuda High continues to flex its strength in the coming weeks. Lots of nervous and interesting dayd ahead.

There would be no escape or curve out to sea for these CV systems should the Bermuda ridge stays strong as the models are hinting at long term. Chantal just may be a harbinger of things to come, which is a very ominous thought indeed.

Very ominous jax...looking forward to another season with everyone though!

[ROCK]

I do think she is still lopsided....looks like the LLC is exposed some....tilted....

[SapphireSea]

finally.....full loop of the all powerful NAVGEM.....LA again

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

As dumb as NAVGEM can be, it doesn't seem to have a bad solution. If it decouples and becomes shallow I could see it riding low level flow.

[ROCK]

I put her at 13.2N and 57.5W.....just eyeballing it

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Aric Dunn]

I put her at 13.2N and 57.5W.....just eyeballing it

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

look at radar..

http://www.barbadosweather.org/barbados ... Driver.php

right on the 13 n