ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[lester]

Maybe that's why the Euro isn't seeing it. Ernesto 2.0.

It hasn't done well with it even when it had a closed circulation which it may still have.

[lester]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 090837
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
500 AM AST TUE JUL 09 2013

...CHANTAL JUST EAST OF BARBADOS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 58.4W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM E OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
WEST OF CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE
* GUADELOUPE
* PUERTO RICO
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF CHANTAL.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST. CHANTAL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHANTAL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
LESSER ANTILLES LATER THIS MORNING...MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BE NEAR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING...AND REACH PUERTO RICO
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN HAITI BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. A STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE
WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH


ROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
500 AM AST TUE JUL 09 2013

CHANTAL HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
RADAR DATA FROM BARBADOS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE COLDEST CLOUD
TOPS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. OVERALL THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT VERY
WELL ORGANIZED AND LACKS WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES. THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 45 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS AND ASCAT DATA. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE CHANTAL LATER THIS MORNING AND
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF ITS INTENSITY.

THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO RACE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WITH THE
LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING 290/23. A CONTINUED FAST
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
THE STORM REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE CHANTAL ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES LATER THIS MORNING...AND NEAR HISPANIOLA ON
WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN
THE RIDGE AND CAUSE CHANTAL TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST. A SLIGHT LEFT TURN IS PREDICTED BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE MODELS SHOW A RIDGE REBUILDING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF CHANTAL BY THAT TIME. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST THEREAFTER...TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS CHANTAL
REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE WIND
SHEAR. PRONOUNCED WEAKENING IS THEN EXPECTED WHEN CHANTAL MOVES
OVER OR INTERACTS WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA. IF THE
CYCLONE SURVIVES ITS TREK ACROSS HISPANIOLA...IT COULD RE-INTENSIFY
AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL WIND PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM REACHES THE BAHAMAS. ONLY SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE WIND SPEED FORECAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE OR LESS IN
LINE WITH THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 13.3N 58.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 14.6N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 16.3N 65.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 18.2N 69.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 20.1N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 23.5N 74.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 26.5N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 28.5N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

[flamingosun]

The 5am is out, and there is a slight bend at the end of the 5 day track graphic.

[Hammy]

one note about the OSCAT is that it tends to be lower resolution than ASCAT--I've seen better organized systems than this that were shown as open waves.

[USTropics]

Regarding the LLC of Chantal, this is from the 5am Discussion:

CHANTAL HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
RADAR DATA FROM BARBADOS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE COLDEST CLOUD
TOPS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. OVERALL THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT VERY
WELL ORGANIZED AND LACKS WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES. THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 45 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS AND ASCAT DATA. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE CHANTAL LATER THIS MORNING AND
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF ITS INTENSITY.

You can clearly follow the center still on Barbados radar. I think the warming of the cloud tops over the past couple of hours has given the illusion of the center opening up. Here is a WV sat image taken about 4-5 hours ago. Seems like Chantal hit a huge plume of dry air that became ingested and thinned out the convection.

[Airboy]

Looks like convection is increasing on the west side of the storm

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 090837
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
500 AM AST TUE JUL 09 2013

...CHANTAL JUST EAST OF BARBADOS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 58.4W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM E OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES

[Gustywind]

Abajan, what 's up in Barbados?

[Stormlover2012]

Gfs 06 runs is poof gone!!! Euro could be on to something!!

[abajan]

Abajan, what 's up in Barbados?

Nothing much at the moment. I've posted a report in the observations thread.

[Gustywind]

From SSD

09/0545 UTC 12.9N 57.0W T3.0/3.0 CHANTAL
08/2345 UTC 11.9N 54.8W T3.0/3.0 CHANTAL

[Gustywind]

Abajan, what 's up in Barbados?

Nothing much at the moment. I've posted a report in the observations thread.

Thanks for posting that. That's very important for us.

[USTropics]

First visible image of the day:

[floridasun78]

good morning guys and ladys look better on sat on visible bit more banding

[TheBurn]

10:15 UTC Caribbean/Vis_IR_background/GOES

[KatDaddy]

TS Claudette approaching the Windward Island with 50MPH winds. NHC brings Chantal up to 70MPH before landfall at the Dominican Rep. Re-intensification is possible if she survives Hispaniola. Several models show a more W bend toward FLA in 120 hours. Still way out at this point.

[sunnyday]

"Several models show a west bend toward Florida." What part of Florida?

[abajan]

TS Claudette approaching the Windward Island with 50MPH winds. NHC brings Chantal up to 70MPH before landfall at the Dominican Rep. Re-intensification is possible if she survives Hispaniola. Several models show a more W bend toward FLA in 120 hours. Still way out at this point.

Yes but who is Claudette?

[Gustywind]

TS Claudette approaching the Windward Island with 50MPH winds. NHC brings Chantal up to 70MPH before landfall at the Dominican Rep. Re-intensification is possible if she survives Hispaniola. Several models show a more W bend toward FLA in 120 hours. Still way out at this point.

Yes but who is Claudette?

i Wonder too. Maybe Claudette and Chantal are twins? Anyway, we have to be on our guard islanders, a cyclonic feature is moving in our way. All the observations and infos are welcomed.

[Syx6sic]

Looks like recon is in the air now will find out what's changed