ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

12z GFS Ensembles:

[NDG]

Here's a screen shot of the 96hr EC. Elongated low across north FL. About 1004mb in NE Gulf. Looks more like a trof axis/frontal boundary extending SW from the low(s). Lots of 20-25 kt winds from the SW into FL. I get the high-res Euro in 3hr intervals now:

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/ec96hrs.gif

Can you post a picture of it from the ECMWF at 72 hrs? I bet that it does not look at elongated as the 96 hr forecast.

[NDG]

91L still has an elongated broad circulation from south to north with several vortecities, but overall it has a bettern satellite appearance than earlier today.
Florida is in the wet side of the disturbance, it sure feels very tropical outside.

Like I said a few days ago, this system reminds me of TS Alberto, June '06.
It was under heavy shear all along in the GOM with all its convection well removed from its surface COC and all the sudden as it tracked over the loop current it became a strong TS.

[gatorcane]

Looks better organized now than it did 24 hours ago. I would think NHC bumps up the development chances to code orange by the next advisory possibly going with 40% or 50%. Looks like a typical early June sheared tropical system in the making.

[Aric Dunn]

clearly a closed surface circ is developing becoming more defined but still over land. at the rate its going recon tomorrow will likely fly. however it be up under the convection offshore.

[floridasun78]

it look their area spin taking shape east of cancun

[Hurricane Andrew]

Can someone do the old red circle job for me?

[dixiebreeze]

IR floater now gone. Anyone know why?

[NDG]

Merida, MX, is now reporting a pressure of 1006.8 mb, down 3 mb from 24 hrs ago.
Pressures all across the northern Yucatan P are down at least a couple of mb.

[Aric Dunn]

IR floater now gone. Anyone know why?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

[floridasun78]

spin looking better in area of cancun some banding

[NDG]

As if in the last couple of hours a new COC is taking over on the northern section of the Yucatan P, IMO.

[SouthDadeFish]

I just finished a new blog post on Invest 91L for those interested:

http://fischerwx.wordpress.com/2013/06/03/invest-91l-a-large-rainmaker/

[cycloneye]

For those members who were asking what happened to the SSD Floater I have good news as for some reason the main site is down but the 91L page is up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

[Aric Dunn]

As if in the last couple of hours a new COC is taking over on the northern section of the Yucatan P, IMO.

the area over land of course cant organize much being over land. There does now appear to be a circ developing offshore at the edge of the convection though probably another vort rotating around a mean center.

[NDG]

As if in the last couple of hours a new COC is taking over on the northern section of the Yucatan P, IMO.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 0e6210.jpg

the area over land of course cant organize much being over land. There does now appear to be a circ developing offshore at the edge of the convection though probably another vort rotating around a mean center.

http://imageshack.us/scaled/landing/577/rgb0lalo.jpg

Yes I see the vorticity you pointed out but it appears is rotating around the circulation over the northern Yucatan P.

[Aric Dunn]

you can clearly pick it out now. looks like some convection is about fire in associated with it as the low level cloud deck are thickening,

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Hurricaneman]

That area 25 to 50 miles north of the Yucatan is where I would watch for continued development

[Hurricane Alexis]

I don't see how this can bring too much rain for SFL. This looks similar to Alberto from '06 which dumped a little bit of rain over here.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF THE LOW HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED TODAY.
ADDITIONAL GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS DESPITE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY
NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN