ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2013

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 23N40W
THROUGH A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 18N38W TO 16N37W. THE WAVE/LOW HAS
BEEN MOVING NW 5-10 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE N OF THE
LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS BEING
DRAWN NW AWAY FROM THE WAVE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 17N41W TO 22N45W.

[CrazyC83]

This blob sure is tenacious...it has the worst environment in the entire Atlantic basin to work with and has had it for many days...just imagine if it had a good environment?

[Hurricaneman]

This blob sure is tenacious...it has the worst environment in the entire Atlantic basin to work with and has had it for many days...just imagine if it had a good environment?

This is why this bears watching in the 3 to 10 days because if you look at the shear it seems to be under an anticyclone at that time and the fact it has decent convection in a highly stable environment is pretty telling IMO

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[gatorcane]

Definitely don't want to discount this ex-invest despite the fact it is lacking convection at the moment. It still has a good circulation and the GFS is hinting at developing it down the road in the Bahamas.

[gatorcane]

If you haven't noticed this area is pulsing convection as it makes its journey across.

GFS for the third run in a row is showing development in the Bahamas and it keeps bringing the time in some...

[gatorcane]

You can see a nice flare-up of convection with this invest located ENE of the Leewards. Structure looks good also with a vigorous low-level circulation, just not organized at the moment and dealing with dry air:

[Gustywind]

2 PM TWD.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
21N48W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 17N45W AND CONTINUES MOVING W NEAR
10-15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW MOSTLY A
MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT NW OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WHEREAS VERY DRY AIR WRAPS UP THE REMAINING IMMEDIATE
ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 49W-52W COLLOCATED WITH AN A SMALL
AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE.

[Blinhart]

Everyone is forgetting about this wave, so this might be the one that will sneak by everyone and cause some trouble.

[HURAKAN]

Experts are not forgetting it!!

[TheStormExpert]

Pre-Gabrielle did the same thing this system is dong as it crossed the MDR. Had very little convection with a few flare-ups on and off.

[Gustywind]

8 PM TWD.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N47W TO 22N50W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE
NEAR 18N47W WITH AN ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE BURST IN THE
VICINITY OF 18N46W. TO THE NW OF THE LOW CENTER...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN
49W-54W. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO REMAINS WEAK WITH GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATING A WEAK TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY
TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

[boca]

I think 98L will be a sleeper system once it gets into the NE Caribbean

[ninel conde]

i think its the most interesting thing in the tropics this morning. lots of convection but no model support. it looks to have survived the worst of the dry air.

[cycloneye]

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...
BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

[ninel conde]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1m

Methinks its time for NHC to "hatch" a new tropical egg. ECMWF low level vort track has this near Bahams day 10

[gatorcane]

Yeah been really watching this one closely and now it looks like it is getting model support from the ECMWF with some development in the Bahamas in about 7-10 days from now. Developments chances are outside the NHC 5-day window so that is why we only see 10% from the NHC in their 5-day percentage but I would suspect these chances go up once we are in the 5-day window sometime this weekend maybe.

[SFLcane]

Yeah been really watching this one closely and now it looks like it is getting model support from the ECMWF with some development in the Bahamas in about 7-10 days from now. Developments chances are outside the NHC 5-day window so that is why we only see 10% from the NHC in their 5-day percentage but I would suspect these chances go up once we are in the 5-day window sometime this weekend maybe.

Strong trough of low pressure parked over the U.S. East Coast should recurve it if it tries to develope.

[Aric Dunn]

I have been actually watching this for many days now... waiting for it to enter a more unstable environment. it has some model support ... cmc, euro and needs to be watch. It has a lot of vorticity and at any moment with more concentrated convection especially near the eastern part of the wave could lead to a TC.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah been really watching this one closely and now it looks like it is getting model support from the ECMWF with some development in the Bahamas in about 7-10 days from now. Developments chances are outside the NHC 5-day window so that is why we only see 10% from the NHC in their 5-day percentage but I would suspect these chances go up once we are in the 5-day window sometime this weekend maybe.

I would say if convection would increase a little more over the eastern part of the wave ( which it might today as it moves into a better environment) then the NHC might up the chances.

[cycloneye]

98L has not been reactivated yet.There is a thread at Talking Tropics that will be open for comments until 98L is reactivated or if a new invest (94L) is up.