ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Blown Away]

Chantal needs to move about 40 miles to the right of the track to avoid those mountains...

[Syx6sic]

Last I checked recon was in air should almost bet there now

[Alyono]

again, the EC can be utter rubbish in the deep tropics with a TC. Not sure why anyone here is taking its intensity forecast seriously.

In May, it did not even have Mahasen at all in the NIO

[Evil Jeremy]

Recon en route. I'll post the HDOBs if no one else does when recon gets closer to Chantal.

Once again I will be providing live updates for casual storm trackers. The first post of the recon discussion thread (which is in my signature below) will have the latest information from the mission in layman's terms.

[Evil Jeremy]

Last I checked recon was in air should almost bet there now

Recon is still a bit away, seems they took off late (again). Once again though, I will be running a recon mission tracker in the first post of the recon discussion thread (link in my signature below), which will constantly be updated with the latest information from the recon mission into Chantal.

[Dean4Storms]

Wow, Chantal looks more disorganized this morning. Don't know if she'll survive much longer.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
800 AM AST TUE JUL 09 2013

...CHANTAL OBSERVED BY BARBADOS AND MARTINIQUE RADARS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 59.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNW OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE
* GUADELOUPE
* PUERTO RICO
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI


A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* TURKS AND CAICOS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
RADARS FROM BARBADOS AND MARTINIQUE INDICATE THAT AT 800 AM
AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.7 WEST. CHANTAL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXWIND...TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND REACH PUERTO RICO
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN HAITI BY LATE WEDNESDAY.T COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHANTAL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING...MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BE NEAR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A
RECONNAISSANCE AIR FORCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING CHANTAL.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND REACH PUERTO RICO TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HAITI BY LATE
WEDNESDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. A STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE
WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Evil Jeremy]

Recon descending to operational altitude

000
URNT15 KNHC 091139
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 09 20130709
113100 1503N 06122W 4856 06104 0316 -072 -286 114015 016 027 001 00
113130 1502N 06119W 4852 06110 0316 -075 -286 118017 017 028 001 00
113200 1501N 06117W 4852 06110 0317 -071 -328 118015 017 028 001 00
113230 1500N 06114W 4855 06108 0317 -070 -372 103017 017 029 000 00
113300 1500N 06112W 4855 06105 0316 -070 -340 095017 018 028 000 00
113330 1459N 06109W 4855 06108 0317 -070 -270 094018 018 027 000 00
113400 1458N 06107W 4853 06109 0316 -070 -328 093018 019 027 001 00
113430 1457N 06104W 4855 06106 0316 -070 -378 095018 019 028 001 00
113500 1457N 06102W 4853 06109 0317 -070 -342 096019 020 028 000 00
113530 1456N 06059W 4855 06109 0317 -069 -382 098020 020 028 000 03
113600 1455N 06057W 4852 06110 0317 -068 -369 095017 020 026 000 00
113630 1453N 06055W 4861 06100 0320 -065 -392 099016 017 026 001 00
113700 1451N 06054W 4863 06102 0322 -065 -191 098019 019 027 001 00
113730 1450N 06052W 4852 06117 0323 -065 -236 092018 019 029 000 00
113800 1448N 06051W 4873 06087 0323 -065 -237 086018 019 031 000 00
113830 1447N 06049W 5011 05872 0316 -060 -214 076021 022 030 000 00
113900 1446N 06048W 5155 05651 0303 -051 -158 076027 029 036 003 00
113930 1444N 06046W 5282 05453 0289 -037 -126 072030 033 040 010 00
114000 1443N 06045W 5420 05246 0272 -022 -085 072028 032 047 013 03
114030 1442N 06044W 5616 04961 0086 -001 -078 076031 032 /// /// 03
$$
;

[TexasF6]

The GoogleSatPic is an old shot, Chantal is trying to wrap itself up this morning.....Who had that Barbados radar site? GM All!

[cycloneye]

For those who may want to see many webcams and radars from the islands,you can visit the Caribbean Central America Weather thread at U.S & Caribbean weather forum. I can say there are many but maybe some don't work but the majority are.

[Alyono]

almost looks like some slight shear is starting to affect Chantal

[Blown Away]

1926, Closest July example I could come up with...

[torrea40]

Wow, Chantal looks more disorganized this morning. Don't know if she'll survive much longer.

Time: 11:40:00Z
Coordinates: 14.7167N 60.75W
Acft. Static Air Press: 542.0 mb (~ 16.01 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 5,246 meters (~ 17,211 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 272 meters (~ 892 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 72° at 28 knots (From the ENE at ~ 32.2 mph)
Air Temp: -2.2°C (~ 28.0°F)
Dew Pt: -8.5°C (~ 16.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 32 knots (~ 36.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 47 knots* (~ 54.0 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 13 mm/hr* (~ 0.51 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data

[Evil Jeremy]

Now at operational altitude

000
URNT15 KNHC 091150
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 10 20130709
114100 1440N 06042W 5827 04662 0092 +014 -063 070031 032 /// /// 03
114130 1439N 06041W 6031 04385 0098 +023 -013 077033 035 /// /// 03
114200 1438N 06039W 6224 04127 0103 +032 +023 079033 038 /// /// 05
114230 1436N 06038W 6428 03862 0109 +046 +040 073041 042 /// /// 03
114300 1435N 06037W 6632 03606 0104 +067 +042 076043 044 /// /// 03
114330 1434N 06035W 6841 03350 0102 +083 +061 083042 043 /// /// 03
114400 1433N 06034W 7059 03085 0112 +090 +070 086047 047 /// /// 03
114430 1431N 06033W 7279 02830 0118 +100 +089 086047 047 /// /// 03
114500 1430N 06032W 7519 02559 0122 +110 +103 084048 051 /// /// 03
114530 1429N 06031W 7746 02308 0122 +119 +117 084056 056 /// /// 05
114600 1428N 06029W 7981 02052 //// +129 //// 084055 057 /// /// 05
114630 1427N 06028W 8177 01843 0122 +140 +135 086062 066 /// /// 03
114700 1426N 06027W 8343 01669 //// +132 //// 082065 067 /// /// 05
114730 1425N 06026W 8410 01595 //// +141 //// 081064 065 /// /// 05
114800 1424N 06025W 8471 01535 0118 +149 +140 081064 067 046 002 01
114830 1423N 06025W 8649 01358 0116 +166 +144 080064 067 047 001 00
114900 1422N 06024W 8927 01086 0120 +172 +168 079062 063 049 001 00
114930 1421N 06023W 9213 00813 0119 +187 +180 078058 063 050 002 03
115000 1420N 06022W 9494 00549 //// +185 //// 074056 059 051 002 01
115030 1419N 06021W 9627 00419 0106 +194 //// 073059 063 049 005 01
$$
;

[Evil Jeremy]

Wow, Chantal looks more disorganized this morning. Don't know if she'll survive much longer.

Time: 11:40:00Z
Coordinates: 14.7167N 60.75W
Acft. Static Air Press: 542.0 mb (~ 16.01 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 5,246 meters (~ 17,211 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 272 meters (~ 892 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 72° at 28 knots (From the ENE at ~ 32.2 mph)
Air Temp: -2.2°C (~ 28.0°F)
Dew Pt: -8.5°C (~ 16.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 32 knots (~ 36.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 47 knots* (~ 54.0 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 13 mm/hr* (~ 0.51 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data

This means absolutely nothing. For starters, the recon flight was not at operational altitude for this line of information. Additionally, it was nowhere close to Chantal. That's irrelevant information.

[cycloneye]

Barbados radar.

[torrea40]

Time: 11:50:00Z
Coordinates: 14.3333N 60.3667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 949.4 mb (~ 28.04 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 549 meters (~ 1,801 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 74° at 56 knots (From the ENE at ~ 64.4 mph)
Air Temp: 18.5°C* (~ 65.3°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 59 knots (~ 67.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 51 knots (~ 58.6 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)

[Evil Jeremy]

Barbados radar.

http://oi43.tinypic.com/midx50.jpg

I'm assuming that's the CoC at 11 o'clock from the radar? Do you have a loop link?

[Blown Away]

Is that the COC at @14N/61W?

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

latest



Stay safe Islanders!

I have to wonder how strong recon will find Chantal. Circulation must be very small.