WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

Cannot confirm this, but the toll may be higher as per local reporters. Not a surprise at all given just how fast that tidal surge came in and how high the winds were

http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/522884/2 ... ol9_CfJPqs

[HurricaneBill]

I haven't seen any storm surge footage during Hurricane Katrina. I was wondering if the surge was as intense as Haiyan. But I know the disaster was also caused by levee failure, wasn't it?

Most of the destruction for New Orleans was due to levee failure.

For the Mississippi and Louisiana coasts, it was storm surge.

Although all the focus was on New Orleans, the Mississippi coast bore the brunt of Katrina's wrath.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gd8WiiXNxho[/youtube]

[Alyono]

Didnt most of the Katrina deaths occur in the 9th ward, however? Wasn't that are immediately flooded by the surge? I am not entirely sure

[dexterlabio]

Cannot confirm this, but the toll may be higher as per local reporters. Not a surprise at all given just how fast that tidal surge came in and how high the winds were

http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/522884/2 ... ol9_CfJPqs

I wouldn't be surprised if Haiyan surpassed Thelma's death toll in 1990's. The impact to the whole province of Leyte after Haiyan was so devastating, not to mention the flattened towns in Samar, Panay island and Northern Palawan.

Most casualties from Thelma were those caught off guard by flashfloods and landslides in Ormoc City.

[dexterlabio]

Most of the destruction for New Orleans was due to levee failure.

For the Mississippi and Louisiana coasts, it was storm surge.

Although all the focus was on New Orleans, the Mississippi coast bore the brunt of Katrina's wrath.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gd8WiiXNxho[/youtube]

Thank you for posting this. That was intense. The only fortunate thing about the storm surge is that the water subsides quickly.

[stormkite]

low latitude storms are common in the WPAC. The coriolis force does not ply a role. Its all relative vorticity there in the monsoon troughs

1 The Intertropical convergence zone is what applies foremost when it is drawn into and merges monsoon trough.

2 The Intertropical convergence zone is positioned north or south of the equator these directions change according to the coriolis effect.

3 The Coriolis effect also initiates cyclonic rotation.

4 Storms they rarely form within 5° of the equator.

5 Not trying to rain your parade .

What are you talking about? The ITCZ is totally different than the monsoon trough. In fact, the monsoon trough features a deviation from the trade winds south of the trough such that the winds are often coming from the SW, increasing convergence to levels much higher than those observed in the ITCZ. Thus, in the WPAC late in the season, you will see storms forming south of 5N. Can also occur in the Indian Ocean. Has also occurred in the CPAC, in the first 3 months of the year

Ok line 1 should have read The Intertropical convergence zone is what applies foremost when it is drawn into and merges with the monsoon trough. I was wrong to assume you would have figured that out. I never implied the ITCZ and the monsoon trough are the same i don't know how you came to that conclusion .

The area they are looking at is the wave east-southeast of Palau that is associated with the ITCZ.


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[beoumont]

Didnt most of the Katrina deaths occur in the 9th ward, however? Wasn't that are immediately flooded by the surge? I am not entirely sure

From the NHC Preliminary Report on Katrina:

<<<<The total number of fatalities directly related to the forces of Katrina is estimated to be about 1500 spread across four states, with about 1300 of these in Louisiana, about 200 in Mississippi, 6 in Florida, and one in Georgia.

A precise measurement of the storm surge produced by Katrina along the northern Gulf coast has been complicated by many factors, including the widespread failures of tide gauges. Additionally, in many locations, most of the buildings along the coast were completely
destroyed, leaving relatively few structures within which to identify still-water marks. Despite these challenges, several high water mark observations of the storm surge from along the Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama coasts were collected and analyzed under the direction of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). These data indicate that the storm surge was about 24 to 28 ft along the Mississippi coast across a swath about 20 miles wide, centered roughly on St. Louis Bay. This area encompasses the eastern half of Hancock County and the western half of Harrison County and includes the communities of Waveland, Bay St. Louis, Pass Christian, and Long Beach. The maximum high water mark observation of storm surge was 27.8 ft at Pass Christian, on the immediate Gulf coast just east of St. Louis Bay. The data also indicate that the storm surge was 17 to 22 ft along the eastern half of the Mississippi coast, roughly from Gulfport to Pascagoula. The surge appears to have penetrated at least six miles inland in many portions of coastal Mississippi and up to 12 miles inland along bays and rivers. The surge crossed Interstate 10 in many locations. Observations also indicate Katrina produced a lesser but still very significant storm surge of 10 to 15 ft along coastal areas of western Alabama (Mobile County) including Dauphin Island. Katrina also caused flooding several miles inland from the Gulf coast along Mobile Bay where data indicate a storm surge of 8 to 12 ft occurred, in particular along the northern and western shores of the bay. Observations indicate that the storm surge along the Gulf coast of eastern Alabama (Baldwin County) was as high as about 10 ft.
Although the storm surge was highest to the east of the path of the eye of Katrina, a very significant storm surge also occurred west of the path of the eye. As the level of Lake Pontchartrain rose, several feet of water were pushed into communities along its northeastern shore in St. Tammany Parish from Slidell to Mandeville, Louisiana. High water mark data indicate the storm surge was 12 to 16 ft in those areas. The data also indicate a storm surge of 15 to 19 ft occurred in eastern New Orleans, St. Bernard Parish, and Plaquemines Parish, while the surge was 10 to 14 ft in western New Orleans along the southern shores of Lake Pontchartrain. Farther west, observations indicate a storm surge of 5 to 10 ft along the shores of western Lake Pontchartrain. The surge severely strained the levee system in the New Orleans area. Several of the levees and floodwalls were overtopped and/or breached at different times on the day of landfall. Most of the floodwall and levee breaches were due to erosion on the back side caused by overtopping, but a few breaches occurred before the waters reached the tops of the floodwalls. The surge overtopped large sections of the levees east of New Orleans, in Orleans Parish and St. Bernard Parish, and it also pushed water up the Intracoastal Waterway and into the Industrial Canal. The water rise in Lake Pontchartrain strained the floodwalls along the canals adjacent to its southern shore, including the 17th Street Canal and the London Avenue Canal. Breaches along the Industrial Canal east of downtown New Orleans, the London Avenue Canal north of downtown, and the 17th Street Canal northwest of downtown appear to have occurred during the early morning on 29 August. Overall, about 80% of the city of New Orleans flooded, to varying depths up to about 20 ft, within a day or so after landfall of the eye.>>>>

[euro6208]

low latitude storms are common in the WPAC. The coriolis force does not ply a role. Its all relative vorticity there in the monsoon troughs

1 The Intertropical convergence zone is what applies foremost when it is drawn into and merges monsoon trough.

2 The Intertropical convergence zone is positioned north or south of the equator these directions change according to the coriolis effect.

3 The Coriolis effect also initiates cyclonic rotation.

4 Storms they rarely form within 5° of the equator.

5 Not trying to rain your parade .

What are you talking about? The ITCZ is totally different than the monsoon trough. In fact, the monsoon trough features a deviation from the trade winds south of the trough such that the winds are often coming from the SW, increasing convergence to levels much higher than those observed in the ITCZ. Thus, in the WPAC late in the season, you will see storms forming south of 5N. Can also occur in the Indian Ocean. Has also occurred in the CPAC, in the first 3 months of the year

where have you been the last few years? storms can form below 5 of the equator...even below 2.

Take a look at vamei back in 2001...

Typhoon Vamei is the strongest ever when it became a typhoon at 1.5N--only 90 nm north of the equator. Peak at 65 knots...

[euro6208]

All this talk about storm surge reminded me of Super Typhoon Yuri back in 1991 when it passed to the southwest by 87 miles...

Yuri also ranked as a top contender when comparing with STY Tip...

This is nothing to relate to what happened in the PI...Just imagine how high those storm surge were at landfall in the Philippines!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9vDSWugz08[/youtube]

[cycloneye]

Death toll rises over 5,000.

The death toll from Typhoon Haiyan has risen above 5,000, officials in the Philippines say, two weeks after the devastating storm hit the country.

The country's National Disaster Agency says that 5,209 people are now known to have lost their lives, with many more still missing.

That makes Haiyan, known as Yolanda in the Philippines, the deadliest natural disaster in the country's history.

Floods in the Ormoc region in 1991 killed 5,101 people.

Haiyan was one of the most powerful typhoons ever recorded.

Winds of up to 270km/h hit the central Philippines when it made landfall on on 8 November.

Parts of low-lying islands were completely flattened.

Eduardo del Rosario, executive director of the Philippines' National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council, said that more than four million people were displaced by the storm.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25051606

[Alyono]

Death toll now up to 5235 as additional victims were found in the western Philippines.

I have also read reports that about a hundred are being found every day in Tacloban

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS showing something again.....

I have relatives in Ormoc who were badly hit!

[dexterlabio]

was going through the Megi thread in archives to verify if it attained or broke the ceiling of 8.0 in Dvorak analysis. It looks like it didn't, but maintained a 7.5 for almost a day! Haiyan maintained an 8.0 for roughly 8 hours. Judging the satellite presentations of Megi and Haiyan at their peak, I'd pick Haiyan definitely. Again, that's based on satellite presentation.


I wonder if Dvorak analysis often underestimate the actual strength of a cyclone. I know the best example of this is Hurricane Wilma. The maximum DT number it attained was 7.0 (or 165 mph sustained winds). But recon confirmed the strongest sustained wind was at 185 mph. Also, Megi was analyzed to be at 155 knots using Dvorak (DT of 7.5) but recon found surface winds of 170 knots (JTWC placed the peak at 165kts though). I never heard of a storm "over-analyzed" using Dvorak when confirmed via recon.

Would anyone argue against Haiyan attaining an 8.0 at its peak? If there's none, do anyone think Haiyan had winds stronger than 195 mph? It's disappointing that the weather instruments of PAGASA stations in Samar-Leyte area were old and faulty. I watched an interview with a PAGASA weatherman saying that most instruments stationed in Visayas and Mindanao could only withstand 160 kph winds. I wish there's a reliable reading of Haiyan's actual strength.

[Alyono]

you'll never get an actual reading from the ground of those extreme winds. Don't think one has ever survived

[xtyphooncyclonex]

you'll never get an actual reading from the ground of those extreme winds. Don't think one has ever survived

I don't think the death toll that high. Why do I see citizens there over Tolosa, Tacloban, Dulag and Palo? It does not mean that everybody is dead there.

Can we also think about the positive side? About the strength of the Filipinos and the rebuilding?

We all know than winds reached 350 km/h, and look at the Filipinos over Bohol, Leyte, Samar, Biliran, Cebu, Negros and Panay. Bohol and Cebu were terribly hit by the quake yet they are still standing and they are trying their best to rebuild their place together with those hit hardly by the storm, directly or indirectly. It does not also mean everyone and everything would be wiped out instantly.

We still survived.

[dexterlabio]

I don't think the death toll that high. Why do I see citizens there over Tolosa, Tacloban, Dulag and Palo? It does not mean that everybody is dead there.

Can we also think about the positive side? About the strength of the Filipinos and the rebuilding?

We all know than winds reached 350 km/h, and look at the Filipinos over Bohol, Leyte, Samar, Biliran, Cebu, Negros and Panay. Bohol and Cebu were terribly hit by the quake yet they are still standing and they are trying their best to rebuild their place together with those hit hardly by the storm, directly or indirectly. It does not also mean everyone and everything would be wiped out instantly.

We still survived.

I think what Alyono meant was the difficulty of obtaining ground observations with high-end Category 5 winds...meaning the instruments used in obtaining the winds speed, not necessarily the people feeling those winds. I know where you're coming from but yeah, Filipinos have been through a lot of calamities but still standing strong.

Having said that, it's interesting that during Typhoon Durian of 2006 the PAGASA station at Virac Catanduanes managed to measure a wind gust of 320 kph before it went down. It seems to me that the weather stations in Luzon are better-equipped.

[euro6208]

was going through the Megi thread in archives to verify if it attained or broke the ceiling of 8.0 in Dvorak analysis. It looks like it didn't, but maintained a 7.5 for almost a day! Haiyan maintained an 8.0 for roughly 8 hours. Judging the satellite presentations of Megi and Haiyan at their peak, I'd pick Haiyan definitely. Again, that's based on satellite presentation.


I wonder if Dvorak analysis often underestimate the actual strength of a cyclone. I know the best example of this is Hurricane Wilma. The maximum DT number it attained was 7.0 (or 165 mph sustained winds). But recon confirmed the strongest sustained wind was at 185 mph. Also, Megi was analyzed to be at 155 knots using Dvorak (DT of 7.5) but recon found surface winds of 170 knots (JTWC placed the peak at 165kts though). I never heard of a storm "over-analyzed" using Dvorak when confirmed via recon.

Would anyone argue against Haiyan attaining an 8.0 at its peak? If there's none, do anyone think Haiyan had winds stronger than 195 mph? It's disappointing that the weather instruments of PAGASA stations in Samar-Leyte area were old and faulty. I watched an interview with a PAGASA weatherman saying that most instruments stationed in Visayas and Mindanao could only withstand 160 kph winds. I wish there's a reliable reading of Haiyan's actual strength.

Well one thing is certain, We will keep hearing how Super Typhoon Tip is still the strongest ever based on lowest pressure ..............but lost to Haiyan and Megi in the winds category who probrably even had pressure lower than Tip especially Haiyan and many other countless typhoons. Many websites will probrably never mention Haiyan and Megi's extreme. 3 years after Megi? Nada info...Just some ghost storms.

It's irritating that Tip's record still stand because it had recon and that was 34 years ago.

[Alyono]

you'll never get an actual reading from the ground of those extreme winds. Don't think one has ever survived

I don't think the death toll that high. Why do I see citizens there over Tolosa, Tacloban, Dulag and Palo? It does not mean that everybody is dead there.

Can we also think about the positive side? About the strength of the Filipinos and the rebuilding?

We all know than winds reached 350 km/h, and look at the Filipinos over Bohol, Leyte, Samar, Biliran, Cebu, Negros and Panay. Bohol and Cebu were terribly hit by the quake yet they are still standing and they are trying their best to rebuild their place together with those hit hardly by the storm, directly or indirectly. It does not also mean everyone and everything would be wiped out instantly.

We still survived.

not the deaths... no instruments survive those extreme winds

[cycloneye]

Video from drone shows how is the destruction in Tacloban city.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gsOn-Ytui98

[CrazyC83]

Regarding Tip's pressure record, there is no way it was broken. The best pressure data compared against the Schloemer equation do not support 870mb or lower. Despite the extreme winds, the pressure was likely around 890 at peak.