ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 091219
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 13 20130709
121100 1341N 06010W 9694 00372 0119 +214 +199 162022 023 028 001 00
121130 1340N 06009W 9700 00372 0125 +211 +196 162022 023 027 002 00
121200 1339N 06008W 9700 00373 0125 +222 +189 166021 023 027 002 00
121230 1338N 06007W 9699 00376 0128 +220 +192 168022 022 026 002 00
121300 1337N 06006W 9700 00383 0135 +208 +202 179022 024 026 004 00
121330 1336N 06004W 9699 00379 0134 +201 //// 177022 023 025 003 01
121400 1335N 06003W 9696 00381 0132 +205 //// 167020 022 024 005 01
121430 1334N 06002W 9705 00375 0134 +211 //// 158026 028 029 005 01
121500 1334N 06001W 9695 00387 0135 +212 +212 155027 028 030 007 00
121530 1333N 06000W 9701 00383 0138 +210 +210 156032 034 031 005 00
121600 1332N 05959W 9698 00386 0139 +207 //// 156034 035 033 005 01
121630 1331N 05958W 9699 00391 0145 +210 //// 154034 036 033 005 05
121700 1332N 05957W 9702 00386 0144 +217 +210 151037 038 034 004 00
121730 1334N 05957W 9699 00389 0141 +214 +212 151037 038 036 005 00
121800 1336N 05956W 9699 00389 0141 +212 +211 154038 039 034 004 00
121830 1338N 05956W 9700 00389 0142 +208 //// 153038 040 035 002 01
121900 1340N 05956W 9698 00390 0142 +210 +207 153042 042 035 001 00
121930 1341N 05955W 9701 00386 0141 +214 +204 155042 043 036 002 00
122000 1343N 05955W 9702 00386 0141 +212 +210 155041 043 036 003 00
122030 1345N 05955W 9695 00389 0140 +210 //// 154042 046 035 007 01
$$
;

[NDG]

Recon finds a stronger Chantal!!!!!

I'm not sure if I'd say "stronger" at this point. SFMR and flight level winds still support 50 kt. Pressure is down to 1002... but how much of that is deepening versus recon missing the lowest pressure on the last mission.

It would be hard to believe that yestery they missed her true COC, they went through 3 times I believe and all times the lowest pressure they found was 1010 mb.

[SouthFLTropics]

Chantal is the kind of storm that is concerning. Considering that she has had to fight off some negative conditions and the fast forward motion she has held her own very well. If she stays to the right of the track and gets into the Bahamas I'm concerned that she has the potential to bomb out before she makes a run on the CONUS. Despite all she has had to overcome she has kept a very vigorous circulation. Slight right adjustments in track will mean less time over Hispaniola. The highest mountains there are on the Western part of the island. Short time over DR coupled with the fast movement should mean she will survive with her circulation intact.

SFT

[senorpepr]

a bit surprised at the recon findings

Surprised the pressure dropped so much.

I'm still not sold that the 1010 was an accurate report [although I don't think it was as low as 1003], but I am surprised it's strengthening this much for moving at 23 kt.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The 6z GFDL is now taking Chantal further east but bending her back towards central Florida as a 90 MPH storm at the end of the run. Both the GFDL and HWRF show a path that avoids most of the DR and therefore keeps the storm stronger.

[Dean4Storms]

The only thing I can think of is that her mid and upper level support is moving along not much slower than she is at the surface allowing her to hang on. If UL shear kicks in though she is done.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT12 KNHC 091218
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032013
A. 09/12:04:10Z
B. 13 deg 52 min N
060 deg 19 min W
C. NA
D. 52 kt
E. 356 deg 25 nm
F. 080 deg 64 kt
G. 358 deg 25 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb
I. 21 C / 391 m
J. 23 C / 363 m
K. 23 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 135 / 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0203A CHANTAL OB 03
MAX FL WIND 64 KT 358/25 11:52:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 034 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[senorpepr]

Recon finds a stronger Chantal!!!!!

I'm not sure if I'd say "stronger" at this point. SFMR and flight level winds still support 50 kt. Pressure is down to 1002... but how much of that is deepening versus recon missing the lowest pressure on the last mission.

It would be hard to believe that yestery they missed her true COC, they went through 3 times I believe and all times the lowest pressure they found was 1010 mb.

I thought they only made one solid pass and another brush... but then again, I was distracted with local weather and wasn't following recon as closely as normal. My point was, I wouldn't have been surprised if the pressure was a few hPa lower (not 1003, per the VDM, but not as high as 1010 either).

[Syx6sic]

Found a 1003mb and some winds over 60 mph looks like

[Evil Jeremy]

[chris_fit]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 12:18Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2013
Storm Name: Chantal (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 03
A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 12:04:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°52'N 60°19'W (13.8667N 60.3167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 46 miles (74 km) to the ESE (102°) from Castries, Saint Lucia.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the N (356°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 80° at 64kts (From the E at ~ 73.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the N (358°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 391m (1,283ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 363m (1,191ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 64kts (~ 73.6mph) which was observed 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the N (358°) from the flight level center at 11:52:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NNE/NE (34°) from the flight level center

[robbielyn]

well it did slow down slightly maybe that helped it some.

[Evil Jeremy]

I thought they only made one solid pass and another brush...

You are correct. That's all recon did yesterday afternoon and evening.

[northjaxpro]

Chantal is the kind of storm that is concerning. Considering that she has had to fight off some negative conditions and the fast forward motion she has held her own very well. If she stays to the right of the track and gets into the Bahamas I'm concerned that she has the potential to bomb out before she makes a run on the CONUS. Despite all she has had to overcome she has kept a very vigorous circulation. Slight right adjustments in track will mean less time over Hispaniola. The highest mountains there are on the Western part of the island. Short time over DR coupled with the fast movement should mean she will survive with her circulation intact.

SFT

I concur! The models are ever slowly keep shifting the track a bit to the right of Hispaniola each time I check them. The probabity that Chantal will miss heavy interaction with that island is increasing.

[cycloneye]

Chantal is just telling us what matters is the inside, not what is seen in images outside.

[tolakram]

Link to live radar: http://www.barbadosweather.org/barbados ... Driver.php

The NE quadrant looks pretty intense.

[Evil Jeremy]

69kts FL found. There was a reading of 71kts FL but it was flagged.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 091229
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 14 20130709
122100 1346N 05954W 9707 00379 0138 +215 +212 152046 047 037 004 00
122130 1348N 05953W 9695 00390 0138 +210 //// 152046 049 038 004 01
122200 1349N 05952W 9700 00385 0137 +218 +206 151049 050 040 002 00
122230 1351N 05951W 9695 00390 0139 +218 +207 150049 050 041 003 03
122300 1353N 05951W 9699 00387 0139 +219 +204 146053 055 042 000 00
122330 1355N 05951W 9699 00387 0140 +216 +205 143054 055 042 001 00
122400 1357N 05952W 9701 00386 0139 +217 +209 142054 055 042 003 00
122430 1359N 05952W 9699 00387 0139 +220 +204 141055 055 043 002 03
122500 1400N 05952W 9694 00390 0138 +214 +211 140052 056 044 001 00
122530 1402N 05952W 9707 00380 0144 +201 //// 134055 059 049 005 01
122600 1404N 05951W 9700 00386 0143 +195 //// 134060 062 050 004 01
122630 1406N 05951W 9700 00384 0140 +204 +199 132062 063 051 003 00
122700 1407N 05951W 9699 00385 0138 +209 +201 130061 064 048 004 00
122730 1409N 05950W 9703 00381 0138 +206 +204 130061 065 044 003 01
122800 1411N 05950W 9699 00385 0139 +200 //// 127069 071 050 004 05
122830 1413N 05950W 9705 00379 0142 +198 //// 128065 068 049 006 01
122900 1414N 05949W 9695 00391 0144 +196 +196 134068 069 049 008 00
122930 1416N 05949W 9640 00439 0144 +194 +194 135064 068 048 008 00
123000 1418N 05949W 9588 00491 0147 +198 +198 131059 062 049 015 00
123030 1420N 05948W 9593 00486 0149 +201 +201 125053 061 049 015 00
$$
;

[adam0983]

If Tropical Storm Chantal slows down will it have more time to turn out to sea and miss the Bahamas completely?

[caribepr]

Yeah you are absolutely right. I guess when I typed I was thinking of the mainland US, lol. In no way trying to make the threat down there any less important.

Hope you guys stay safe.

I wouldn't start getting excited about this one until after it crosses Hispaniola.

Well, unless you live in the island chain...

Thanks for that . It was just an every year reminder that we're here!