ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Evil Jeremy]

If Tropical Storm Chantal slows down will it have more time to turn out to sea and miss the Bahamas completely?

Never say never in the tropics. Having said that, it looks pretty darn unlikely.

[jlauderdal]

If Tropical Storm Chantal slows down will it have more time to turn out to sea and miss the Bahamas completely?

or it can catch a ridge and come back west...survival is first on the list though

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 091239
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 15 20130709
123100 1421N 05948W 9586 00493 0149 +200 +200 125052 056 045 012 00
123130 1423N 05948W 9588 00491 0150 +197 +197 127056 056 043 015 00
123200 1425N 05948W 9601 00480 0151 +196 +196 124055 056 046 016 00
123230 1426N 05947W 9595 00487 0152 +196 //// 124054 055 042 014 01
123300 1428N 05947W 9595 00487 0147 +211 +194 125055 056 039 003 00
123330 1430N 05947W 9595 00486 0147 +209 +196 124051 056 039 003 00
123400 1431N 05946W 9607 00475 0149 +199 //// 118052 053 042 003 01
123430 1433N 05946W 9589 00491 0145 +210 +197 118055 055 042 005 03
123500 1434N 05948W 9596 00486 0147 +205 +199 113053 054 /// /// 03
123530 1433N 05949W 9583 00497 0152 +190 //// 114046 054 046 018 05
123600 1432N 05950W 9583 00497 0148 +204 +200 122048 054 049 022 00
123630 1431N 05951W 9608 00474 0144 +214 +193 124054 055 042 005 00
123700 1429N 05952W 9632 00451 0145 +205 +196 121054 055 044 009 03
123730 1428N 05953W 9627 00454 0146 +197 //// 119055 056 045 017 01
123800 1427N 05954W 9667 00415 0145 +197 +197 117056 057 047 016 00
123830 1426N 05955W 9700 00386 0143 +202 +202 119056 058 044 017 00
123900 1425N 05956W 9698 00386 0142 +201 //// 121055 057 044 009 01
123930 1424N 05957W 9707 00379 0140 +201 //// 121061 062 042 005 01
124000 1423N 05958W 9696 00390 0142 +201 //// 120060 063 047 009 01
124030 1421N 06000W 9702 00380 0141 +198 +198 121065 068 052 013 00
$$
;

[adam0983]

I am very surprised that the NHC Track is not showing the turn to Florida on days 4 and 5 on the model runs. The GFS is still showing this and most of the models are agreement that this turn will occur at some point. I am waiting to see what the NHC does with the track at 11am. Not a forecast just an opinion.

[Evil Jeremy]

[Evil Jeremy]

I am very surprised that the NHC Track is not showing the turn to Florida on days 4 and 5 on the model runs. The GFS is still showing this and most of the models are agreement that this turn will occur at some point. I am waiting to see what the NHC does with the track at 11am. Not a forecast just an opinion.

They started to show it with the 5am advisory. They say in the discussion:

A SLIGHT LEFT TURN IS PREDICTED BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE MODELS SHOW A RIDGE REBUILDING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF CHANTAL BY THAT TIME.

[Thunder44]

Recon found FL winds 68kt and SFMR 52kt. Unflagged too.

124030 1421N 06000W 9702 00380 0141 +198 +198 121065 068 052 013 00

[jlauderdal]

http://img197.imageshack.us/img197/1742/ny4w.jpg
1926, Closest July example I could come up with...

that 1926 track looks real close to hobe sound but on the left side

[NDG]

Yet another unflagged 68 knot wind at flight level, which they are flying at around 1K feet above the surface.

[Evil Jeremy]

Recon found FL winds 68kt and SMFR 52kt?

124030 1421N 06000W 9702 00380 0141 +198 +198 121065 068 052 013 00

Yep. And there was a higher flight level reading later, of 69kts.

[Evil Jeremy]

New recon data any minute now should be very telling. Another center pass coming up!

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 091249
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 16 20130709
124100 1420N 06001W 9694 00386 0137 +197 //// 118068 070 050 013 01
124130 1419N 06002W 9702 00378 0133 +203 //// 119065 068 050 006 01
124200 1418N 06003W 9698 00380 0135 +203 //// 119060 064 051 011 01
124230 1417N 06004W 9697 00380 0134 +200 //// 124062 065 055 009 01
124300 1416N 06005W 9691 00385 0133 +200 //// 127056 064 048 005 01
124330 1415N 06007W 9710 00366 0132 +208 //// 133053 059 048 007 05
124400 1413N 06008W 9699 00377 0129 +210 //// 136050 053 042 007 01
124430 1412N 06009W 9697 00375 0127 +208 //// 135052 052 041 006 01
124500 1411N 06010W 9700 00372 0126 +204 //// 137053 054 043 006 05
124530 1410N 06011W 9699 00373 0123 +209 //// 137054 055 042 005 01
124600 1409N 06012W 9699 00372 0122 +217 +206 140051 052 044 004 00
124630 1408N 06013W 9699 00372 0121 +219 +204 142050 052 044 002 00
124700 1407N 06014W 9695 00374 0121 +215 +209 140045 048 042 003 00
124730 1406N 06015W 9704 00368 0122 +216 +206 143045 047 043 003 00
124800 1405N 06016W 9700 00369 0120 +215 +205 147045 047 043 004 00
124830 1404N 06017W 9703 00368 0120 +217 +206 147044 045 043 002 03
124900 1403N 06018W 9702 00367 0119 +217 +204 148046 047 041 006 00
124930 1402N 06020W 9695 00372 0119 +206 +206 151046 047 040 005 00
125000 1402N 06021W 9704 00363 0119 +205 //// 155044 044 040 004 01
125030 1401N 06022W 9700 00366 0115 +214 +208 157045 045 040 003 00
$$
;

[adam0983]

Tropical Storm Chantal Models remind me of Hurricane Jeanne back in 2004 because most of the models are now showing a turn back to Florida and now are showing less time over of the island of Hispaniola. Not a forecast just an opinion.

[Blown Away]

12z...Models beginning to bend back towards South Florida

[Evil Jeremy]

124100 1420N 06001W 9694 00386 0137 +197 //// 118068 070 050 013 01

70kts flight level winds. I believe the "01" flag doesn't apply towards FL and SFMR, am I right?

[Thunder44]

Recon found FL winds 68kt and SMFR 52kt?

124030 1421N 06000W 9702 00380 0141 +198 +198 121065 068 052 013 00

Yep. And there was a higher flight level reading later, of 69kts.

The highest I see, is at flight level 70kt and a SFMR report a little later at 55kt. ALL in NE quad. Should be enough 60-65mph upgrade, IMO.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[jlauderdal]

Tropical Storm Chantal Models remind me of Hurricane Jeanne back in 2004 because most of the models are now showing a turn back to Florida and now are showing less time over of the island of Hispaniola. Not a forecast just an opinion.

its similiar but we dont see the big stall we had with jeanne

[Janie2006]

Tonight, we're secretly switching this board's GFS with CMC/GEM crystals. Can these people tell the difference?




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_Gtb1kElRk if the reference is unfamiliar

Nicely played! I didn't have to watch the video to get the Folgers Crystals reference, which means we're getting along in years.

GFS still consistent with the idea of turning Chantal (or whatever is left) into the Florida peninsula and back over the eastern/northeastern Gulf, which is nothing we don't know. I still have a difficult time buying this idea that Chantal crosses Haiti/DR and survives, she would *have to* avoid Hispanola or barely skirt it, but as Aric has said, the intensity models are ramping up a bit, indicating that the environment may be becoming more conducive ahead of the system. I like the general consensus here.....given the strength of the ridge to the north the forecast track seems to be spot on at the moment, with variations to the north or south as time passes.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 091259
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 17 20130709
125100 1400N 06023W 9699 00366 0115 +211 +208 160043 045 041 004 03
125130 1359N 06025W 9697 00367 0114 +211 +207 164041 043 039 002 00
125200 1359N 06026W 9703 00363 0118 +204 //// 166039 042 038 005 01
125230 1358N 06027W 9703 00361 0114 +212 +210 172036 036 037 003 00
125300 1358N 06029W 9706 00358 0112 +213 //// 178033 035 035 004 01
125330 1358N 06030W 9699 00363 0111 +215 //// 180030 031 036 003 05
125400 1358N 06032W 9694 00364 //// +212 //// 177024 028 034 002 01
125430 1357N 06034W 9703 00356 //// +219 //// 174019 022 025 004 01
125500 1357N 06035W 9700 00359 0105 +224 +219 176017 019 022 001 00
125530 1357N 06037W 9699 00359 0105 +223 +219 178014 015 020 001 00
125600 1357N 06038W 9702 00357 0105 +225 +218 175011 013 016 001 00
125630 1357N 06040W 9700 00358 0106 +223 +220 171006 009 016 000 00
125700 1356N 06042W 9705 00355 0107 +221 +218 195003 005 020 001 00
125730 1356N 06043W 9695 00366 0110 +218 //// 273005 006 022 001 01
125800 1355N 06044W 9702 00363 //// +213 //// 276007 009 021 003 01
125830 1354N 06046W 9557 00486 //// +205 //// 275007 008 018 004 05
125900 1353N 06047W 9163 00857 0110 +195 +193 280009 009 019 002 01
125930 1352N 06048W 9087 00939 0122 +190 +187 293009 010 019 002 00
130000 1351N 06049W 9083 00946 0125 +190 +186 313009 011 019 002 00
130030 1350N 06050W 9078 00953 0130 +188 +183 324005 007 019 002 00
$$
;

[gatorcane]

Tropical Storm Chantal Models remind me of Hurricane Jeanne back in 2004 because most of the models are now showing a turn back to Florida and now are showing less time over of the island of Hispaniola. Not a forecast just an opinion.

Jeanne was a much stronger and organized system in the Caribbean though before it emerged north of the islands and made the loop.