ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Gustywind]

Off topic for those who are interrested by ex TS Chantal radar and sat animation when reaching Martinica, go on this link : viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&p=2323922#p2323922

Gustywind

[Senobia]

18z...Pointing to GOM...Not sure what will be left...

Could be dangerous...

What about this signifies danger, the path? Okay -but given the intensity isn't forecast (at this time) to be very high, I don't see how it's dangerous so some clarification would be great. Thanks.

[Steve H.]

Before we go to the next thread, I believe it is not prudent to think this "weak" storm idea may be way off base. From where these storms generated for this time of year in that part of the basin, these storms are anomalies. I believe that since they almost developed in a climatologically unfavorably time of year, that this season could get bad in later August and September,

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[northjaxpro]

Before we go to the next thread, I believe it is not prudent to think this "weak" storm idea may be way off base. From where these storms generated for this time of year in that part of the basin, these storms are anomalies. I believe that since they almost developed in a climatologically unfavorably time of year, that this season could get bad in later August and September,

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree 100% with what you stated above!

[cycloneye]

Before we go to the next thread, I believe it is not prudent to think this "weak" storm idea may be way off base. From where these storms generated for this time of year in that part of the basin, these storms are anomalies. I believe that since they almost developed in a climatologically unfavorably time of year, that this season could get bad in later August and September,

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Agree 100%. We have to be prepared for the peak months of the season and without El Nino not being around to halt the season,things may get rough in the basin. But I am getting off topic. Let's go to Talking Tropics forum.

[Aric Dunn]

little bit of convection trying to fire on the north side of circ.. will it blow up or not

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[tailgater]

One of you more learned guys or gals tell me if this is plausible. with Chantal a few weeks back I remember one the NHC Mets talking about a narrow jet they found with weather ballons, that ripped her apart and I thinking that may be happening here also because of the clouds at the mid levels just don't seem to moving in the correct direction especially on the northern side of the storm. The shear we are seeing on the charts shouldn't be causing this. It's not like the ridge to the north is weak at any level.

[Aric Dunn]

One of you more learned guys or gals tell me if this is plausible. with Chantal a few weeks back I remember one the NHC Mets talking about a narrow jet they found with weather ballons, that ripped her apart and I thinking that may be happening here also because of the clouds at the mid levels just don't seem to moving in the correct direction especially on the northern side of the storm. The shear we are seeing on the charts shouldn't be causing this. It's not like the ridge to the north is weak at any level.

I posted this earlier.. there is enough mid level shear to disrupt such a small system.

[Bocadude85]

18z GFS is further north then the 12z run. The 850 vort actually tracks though the Florida Keys this run.


Here is Dorian or whats left of him in the Central Bahamas at the 96 hour mark

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=096&image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_atlantic_096_850_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=atlantic&param=850_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=

[Bocadude85]

Looks like convection is starting to expand to the north and west of the LLC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif

[cycloneye]

There you have it.

TXNT28 KNES 270003
TCSNTL

A. 04L (DORIAN)

B. 26/2345Z

C. 17.9N

D. 47.1W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE TO BANDING LESS
THAN .2

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'm sorry but so far for an above average seasons (in terms of pure numbers), the storms of 2013 certainly have been a rather pathetic lot. Mind you I do not desire landfalls, but rather just fishes to track that actually hold together for more than a couple days. Dorian is just the latest example.

[wxman57]

Convection? It's dead. Nothing but a few light showers remaining. Certainly not a TS or even a TD now. Conditions in its path are only more hostile. I wouldn't call it done forever, but it's not doing anything for a few days. What's left after that? Well, maybe if there is any vorticity left we'll have to watch it as we would any other tropical wave. I still think that Dorian is a sign that there are going to be some bad hurricanes come peak season. It's just a tad too early for Cape Verde storms.

[MGC]

I don't know....a few towers popping up near the center to the north of the CC......MGC

[AdamFirst]

I'm sorry but so far for an above average seasons (in terms of pure numbers), the storms of 2013 certainly have been a rather pathetic lot. Mind you I do not desire landfalls, but rather just fishes to track that actually hold together for more than a couple days. Dorian is just the latest example.

It's a Cape Verde storm in July. The odds were heavily stacked against it from the beginning. It basically suffered the same fate as Chantal - got its guts ripped out by the easterlies and other factors. If this were late August or September, Dorian could have been a monster.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'm sorry but so far for an above average seasons (in terms of pure numbers), the storms of 2013 certainly have been a rather pathetic lot. Mind you I do not desire landfalls, but rather just fishes to track that actually hold together for more than a couple days. Dorian is just the latest example.

It's a Cape Verde storm in July. The odds were heavily stacked against it from the beginning. It basically suffered the same fate as Chantal - got its guts ripped out by the easterlies and other factors. If this were late August or September, Dorian could have been a monster.

We'll see or maybe none of the Cape Verde long trackers will hold together this year, like during the past two. Conditions in MDR seem very hostile towards sustained development, once again like it has been the past two years.

[cycloneye]

Still a TS.

AL, 04, 2013072700, , BEST, 0, 178N, 471W, 35, 1010, TS

[cycloneye]

ASCAT pass at 8:05 PM EDT tells the story and for sure will acelerate the downgrade.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I'm sorry but so far for an above average seasons (in terms of pure numbers), the storms of 2013 certainly have been a rather pathetic lot. Mind you I do not desire landfalls, but rather just fishes to track that actually hold together for more than a couple days. Dorian is just the latest example.

It's a Cape Verde storm in July. The odds were heavily stacked against it from the beginning. It basically suffered the same fate as Chantal - got its guts ripped out by the easterlies and other factors. If this were late August or September, Dorian could have been a monster.

We'll see or maybe none of the Cape Verde long trackers will hold together this year, like during the past two. Conditions in MDR seem very hostile towards sustained development, once again like it has been the past two years.

It's July. Wind shear isn't going to be <5 kt with relative humidity values above 70%. The fact that both Chantal and Dorian developed at all is very significant because it shows the Central/East Atlantic is more primed than typical.

[Gustywind]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
26/2345 UTC 17.9N 47.1W TOO WEAK DORIAN
26/1745 UTC 17.6N 44.7W T1.0/2.0 DORIAN
26/1145 UTC 17.6N 42.6W T1.5/2.0 DORIAN