ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[BUCMAN48]

presently Chantel is small in size- will she grow in size once she passes by Hisponola and will windfield expand?

[ROCK]

heres something to chew on....lol...the GFS ensembles are sort of jumbled up....

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... ck_gfs.png

[artist]

Reduce by 15%, at 1,500 ft.?

here is a good paper regarding the reduction factor
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Powell/PowellEstWinds.pdf

[galaxy401]

Will be interesting to see what the NHC will say in the next advisory.

[tolakram]

Same image, corrected for top down viewing from the satellite loops.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 091410
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 24 20130709
140100 1439N 06132W 9699 00380 0131 +220 +199 056037 038 034 001 00
140130 1437N 06132W 9702 00377 0131 +216 +204 061031 037 033 002 00
140200 1436N 06131W 9711 00367 0129 +219 +205 063033 036 028 002 00
140230 1434N 06131W 9685 00391 0128 +218 +203 053031 036 028 000 00
140300 1433N 06130W 9701 00374 0128 +208 +207 050030 031 029 003 01
140330 1431N 06129W 9705 00370 0128 +203 //// 042028 030 029 002 01
140400 1430N 06128W 9705 00369 0126 +209 +209 046031 033 030 001 01
140430 1428N 06128W 9700 00374 0124 +215 +209 044029 032 030 002 00
140500 1427N 06127W 9695 00375 0120 +216 +209 039033 034 030 001 00
140530 1426N 06126W 9701 00366 0117 +218 +210 043033 034 032 000 03
140600 1424N 06125W 9696 00369 0114 +218 +211 041033 033 031 003 00
140630 1423N 06124W 9698 00364 0111 +219 +212 040033 034 031 001 00
140700 1422N 06123W 9696 00363 0107 +220 +212 035026 031 030 000 00
140730 1421N 06122W 9699 00358 0106 +213 +211 028023 025 029 001 01
140800 1420N 06121W 9696 00359 //// +206 //// 020019 022 030 001 05
140830 1419N 06119W 9703 00352 //// +200 //// 010018 018 028 003 01
140900 1418N 06118W 9694 00356 //// +198 //// 019016 018 028 002 01
140930 1418N 06116W 9699 00351 //// +207 //// 005020 022 025 001 01
141000 1418N 06115W 9695 00350 //// +219 //// 024014 022 025 001 01
141030 1418N 06113W 9699 00341 0084 +230 +225 065002 008 019 000 03
$$
;

[bamajammer4eva]

JBastardi said last night that the winds had increased to 50mph.because of the storm being near strong high pressure not that the storm actually strengthened. Wonder if this is still the case with 70+mph.

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[SouthFloridawx]

Thank you. I will take a look at it. I thought that it was 15% at that level.

[ROCK]

the 06Z NAVGEM....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ronjon]

The 06Z GFDL brings the system into the Northern Bahamas then bends it W towards the East Coast of Central Florida, deepening it:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Models seeing a better Bahama area upper air environment with each run... Starting my mental checklist to prepare...

Not a good run for Florida with Melbourne in the crosshairs for a possible hurricane hit. Fortunately it's the intensity challenged GFDL, lol. The path though would be a worst case for us Floridians with Chantal just skirting Hispanola and having plenty of warm water and the gulf stream to intensify prior to landfall.

[TheStormExpert]

Tropical Storm Chantal Models remind me of Hurricane Jeanne back in 2004 because most of the models are now showing a turn back to Florida and now are showing less time over of the island of Hispaniola. Not a forecast just an opinion.

its similiar but we dont see the big stall we had with jeanne

Yeah Jeanne made a loop just east of the Northernmost Bahamas then went due west followed by west-northwest into South/Central FL.

[RL3AO]

Not to start wobble watching wars, but it appears to have made a pretty good jump north.

[Blown Away]

Not to start wobble watching wars, but it appears to have made a pretty good jump north.

I've been thinking that all morning, these jumps could make a big difference!!

[hurricanefloyd5]

did it really just north. if it really jump North does that mean it actually is going to skirt the northern coast of the Dominican Republic?

[floridasun78]

so will their use 1003 or 1010 at 11am?

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 091419
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 25 20130709
141100 1418N 06112W 9701 00346 0090 +230 +224 169009 012 020 000 00
141130 1417N 06110W 9698 00350 0093 +228 +223 167016 018 022 001 00
141200 1416N 06109W 9700 00351 0096 +226 +220 176020 022 024 001 00
141230 1416N 06108W 9697 00358 //// +209 //// 185022 024 027 002 01
141300 1415N 06106W 9702 00359 0108 +225 +215 173027 028 029 000 03
141330 1415N 06105W 9700 00363 0111 +221 +215 169027 027 026 002 03
141400 1414N 06104W 9699 00369 0117 +220 +216 167026 027 /// /// 03
141430 1413N 06105W 9702 00370 0120 +223 +216 167024 025 027 003 00
141500 1411N 06106W 9697 00374 0120 +222 +217 166022 023 027 001 00
141530 1410N 06106W 9703 00369 0120 +222 +217 165021 022 024 002 00
141600 1409N 06107W 9700 00370 0119 +220 +218 167015 019 024 002 00
141630 1408N 06108W 9694 00377 0124 +215 //// 161014 017 021 002 01
141700 1407N 06109W 9710 00363 //// +202 //// 173018 024 029 004 05
141730 1405N 06109W 9699 00375 0127 +207 //// 200031 033 050 011 01
141800 1404N 06109W 9703 00374 0132 +198 //// 200033 033 040 004 01
141830 1403N 06109W 9698 00383 //// +209 //// 201033 034 039 003 01
141900 1401N 06109W 9701 00381 //// +205 //// 203033 033 038 003 01
141930 1400N 06109W 9703 00381 //// +201 //// 203033 033 039 003 01
142000 1359N 06109W 9699 00387 0143 +201 //// 196030 032 037 003 01
142030 1357N 06109W 9703 00385 0144 +200 //// 192027 029 035 005 01
$$
;

[Stormlover2012]

Prob not, prob will is 1008.

[torrea40]

The aircraft has recorded winds of 80.5mph in the Northern quadrant of the storm. The registration of sustained winds has been consistent in is being strengthened with a range of strong winds of 65 to 80...

[CrazyC83]

Those data suggest an intensity of 55 kt, although will they go that high given that it is poorly organized?

FL of 75 kt = 60 kt at the surface, and the highest reliable SFMR I found was 51 kt.

[galaxy401]

The pressure probably isn't 1010 since I've been hearing the center bumped north and recon might of missed it.