ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 091439
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 27 20130709
143100 1330N 06112W 9707 00396 0156 +221 +198 202016 017 022 000 00
143130 1330N 06114W 9696 00402 0152 +227 +194 197016 017 023 000 00
143200 1330N 06115W 9700 00400 0154 +225 +196 197017 017 022 001 00
143230 1330N 06117W 9700 00400 0153 +223 +198 199017 017 020 001 00
143300 1330N 06118W 9700 00400 0153 +219 +203 198017 018 018 001 00
143330 1331N 06120W 9699 00400 0154 +224 +198 193016 017 017 001 00
143400 1331N 06121W 9697 00402 0154 +222 +196 191016 017 017 000 00
143430 1331N 06123W 9703 00396 0153 +216 +200 197013 015 018 000 00
143500 1331N 06125W 9696 00400 0150 +215 +201 184012 013 016 001 00
143530 1331N 06126W 9699 00395 0148 +215 +201 179011 012 015 000 00
143600 1331N 06128W 9698 00394 0145 +217 +200 177011 011 016 000 00
143630 1331N 06129W 9703 00387 0143 +220 +196 181012 012 017 000 00
143700 1331N 06131W 9696 00394 0145 +220 +192 180012 013 018 000 00
143730 1331N 06133W 9699 00394 0145 +221 +194 177012 013 015 000 00
143800 1331N 06134W 9701 00392 0146 +224 +194 185010 012 015 001 00
143830 1331N 06136W 9703 00390 0146 +218 +199 206007 010 015 001 00
143900 1332N 06137W 9699 00391 0143 +218 +202 219006 007 016 000 00
143930 1332N 06139W 9696 00392 0142 +221 +197 219006 006 016 000 00
144000 1332N 06140W 9699 00392 0143 +222 +196 218005 006 017 000 00
144030 1332N 06142W 9699 00394 0145 +223 +192 227005 005 017 000 00
$$
;

[floridasun78]

plane report close eye wall

[tolakram]

plane report close eye wall

I missed that report, when and where?

[Evil Jeremy]

plane report close eye wall

Nothing indicated an eye wall.

[tolakram]

Last VDM, no report of a closed eyewall, or any eyewall.

000
URNT12 KNHC 091429
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032013
A. 09/14:10:40Z
B. 14 deg 18 min N
061 deg 13 min W
C. NA
D. 40 kt
E. 319 deg 32 nm
F. 065 deg 53 kt
G. 321 deg 36 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 20 C / 364 m
J. 23 C / 361 m
K. 23 C / NA
L.
M. NA
N. 12345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0203A CHANTAL OB 10
MAX FL WIND 75 KT 035/45 13:43:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
SPIRAL BAND 16NM ACROSS, 75KTS AT 850MB LEVEL
;

[HouTXmetro]

the 06Z NAVGEM....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

TX/LA Border Hmmm.... Well that's one crappy model, a few GFS ensembles and BAMD showing this remote but not impossible solution in the long term.

[gatorcane]

Chantal doesn't look nearly as good as it did yesterday...looks like it may be trying to elongate and open back up into strong wave?

[ROCK]

Tropical Storm Chantal could be a Hurricane with the highest pressure ever. Just an opinion not a forecast.

not likely given the appearance that she is near hurricane force...those flight level winds are suspect IMO. WXMN57 just produced some obs that show shes not even close....I could be wrong though... got to leave me a way out...ha

[ROCK]

the 06Z NAVGEM....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

TX/LA Border Hmmm.... Well that's one crappy model, a few GFS ensembles and BAMD showing this remote but not impossible solution in the long term.

lol...its been upgraded this year and even got a new name....

[AdamFirst]

Chantal doesn't look nearly as good as it did yesterday...looks like it may be trying to elongate and open back up into strong wave?

An open wave with 75kt flight level winds...

[tolakram]

Convection firing again on the NE side of the LLC.

[adam0983]

Chantal looks better than it did yesterday the winds are stronger and the presentation looks much better. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[floridasun78]

ok so hunter reporting higher wind in system and 50mph?

[ROCK]

its got a LLC right there on SAT view....so no its not a wave. Its just moving so fast she is not vertically stacked. the LLC outrunning the convection still and has been for most of its life....

[BUCMAN48]

Good morning Rock,

When and is it suppose to slow down some?

[adam0983]

once it passes Hispaniola

[Blinhart]

I see that at least 6 models are now predicting this system to make it up to at least a Cat 1 hurricane, some even have it making up to Cat 2, and that is only in the next 5.5 days.

[ROCK]

Good morning Rock,

When and is it suppose to slow down some?

well DR should slow it down a lot....lol....models have it slowing once it clears DR as steering collapses.

I also think its hitting some shear as well....

[Jevo]

06z HWRF Track and Intensity



EDIT: Good Morning all

[Tireman4]

the 06Z NAVGEM....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

TX/LA Border Hmmm.... Well that's one crappy model, a few GFS ensembles and BAMD showing this remote but not impossible solution in the long term.

lol...its been upgraded this year and even got a new name....

And it is shiny and sparkly.... Interesting run though, not that I even want this entity, whatever she ends up being...


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