ATL: GABRIELLE - Models

[gatorcane]

UKMET looks to have an updated solution at 12Z. http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

Jumps north at day 2???

The 12Z UKMET brings 97L NNW for the first 48 hours but then bends it back west north of Hispaniola out through 72 hours and slows it down:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/UKTROPATL_12z/ukloop.html

[Blown Away]

The Euro is a long slow ride from Caribbean to N Florida in 10 days...The rest of the model camp has a quick escape...

[stormlover2013]

could be alot of rain for florida!!! might make a wet mess for some football games!!

[gatorcane]

:uarrow:
The Euro is a long slow ride from Caribbean to N Florida in 10 days...The rest of the model camp has a quick escape...

Looks like the Euro slows down 97L just north of Hispaniola and stalls it there a few days then sends it WNW as ridging builds in over the Western Atlantic once the trough pulls out. GFS is not showing this so these reliable models are in complete disagreement on the trough/ridge setup right now in the medium to long-range.

[stormlover2013]

well atleast this might give us something to watch for a week or so!!!

[wxman57]

could be alot of rain for florida!!! might make a wet mess for some football games!!

I wouldn't count on it. Nothing to indicate a Florida threat yet.

[gatorcane]

Here is the 12Z FIM. It's similar to the 12Z GFS which combines the system with the area of energy behind 97L and sends it north and then NNE north of Hispaniola as a very large broad system. I wonder if the GFS and FIM are suffering convective feedback problems due to the area east of 97L "feeding back" into 97L? The size of this system the FIM is showing seems overdone to me.

Loop:
http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=fim9_jet:&runTime=2013090312&plotName=wind_850&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=244

126 Hour saved image:

[Steve]

If it develops, I like the general idea of the models with 97L but I think they might be a hair east. On Friday, I was thinking 150 miles either side of the Florida Peninsula coming up/crawling generally from the South, but I think that was too far west. Tropical Storm Toraji (15W) sort of crept north and then curved into Japan as it heads off NE. This would have teleconnected to something getting into or very close to the Bahamas and then getting kicked out.

The ultimate path will depend on the high pressure behind the trough that is making it's way south and east right now. There should be an alley way for 5 to 7 or 8 days or so for it (and anything else) to get out before the block sets up. If it's slower than that, all bets would be off and the shot at a short-cut storm heading toward the SE US Coast would be on the table. Gut is that it finds the alley way and heads off to the North Atlantic as most of the major models are predicting.

This post is not official.

[Blown Away]

18z looks like a slam dunk recurve after leaving Hispaniola...Must turn NW soon to follow 18z tracks...


Intensity shoots up once 97L clears the big islands...

IMO, better hope 97L gets booted out to sea after leaving the big islands b/c it's has the makings to be a biggie!!!!

[alienstorm]

Don't buy it, ECMF shows a stall in the Bahamas followed by a wnw - nw track slowly as the high builds in. We may start to see this trend starting tomorrow.

[HurrMark]

Just an observation, this is moving due west...and I don't see this turning north for a while given the current low level flow...until the heavy convection starts wrapping around, this might cruise through the Caribbean a bit. I wouldn't be surprised to see a significant westward adjustment in the models...and therefore you shouldn't let your guard down in Florida (not an official forecast)

[TheStormExpert]

http://img580.imageshack.us/img580/5849/v5p3.jpg
18z...So much for the prediction that this year's pattern will allow for CONUS landfalls...That recurve looks like an October setup...Feeling better in SFL that nothing from the east will get us this season...

There's always October with storms coming in from the west a lot like Hurricane Wilma!

[Steve]

>>Don't buy it, ECMF shows a stall in the Bahamas followed by a wnw - nw track slowly as the high builds in. We may start to see this trend starting tomorrow.


That's the other possibility. ECMWF might be too fast with the initial trough and pattern reversal or it might stall for too long. But then again, it might be right. If it it is right, look out SE Coast. If not, then it will be only something to track.

This post is not official.

[TheStormExpert]

You also have to remember the fact that the GFS has a tendency to break down ridging too much.

[ROCK]

you also have to remember the EURO is left biased... so pick somewhere in the middle.

[Steve]

Understood. But that isn't really the case in this instance. We are moving into 'high tide' of summer, and semi-persistent east coast troughing is about to get another big trough. But most of the models show this to be a transient feature with a very strong high/block coming in behind the front setting up in the Canadian Maritimes. 97L appears to be heading for a position southeast or east of the Bahamas (based on current modeling) that would allow it to move up and out. At least that appears to be the most likely scenario to me. If this was a week from now and we saw massive continental ridging, it would be a different story.

This post is unofficial.

[ronjon]

Curiously, the BAM Medium, which the SHIPs intensity forecast follows, is holding firm on a steady W-NW track across Cuba similar to the euro. While a recurve is likely I'm not sure its a slam dunk yet. Too many unknowns yet such as intensity (could stay weak if it travels the masses of the greater antilles), timing and strength of trough, and the progressivity of the mid-atlantic high pressure building in.

[Steve H.]

Didn't have time to look, but if the medium BAM, that is the better of the lot in this instance.

[cycloneye]

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0045 UTC WED SEP 4 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972013) 20130904 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130904 0000 130904 1200 130905 0000 130905 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 64.0W 16.2N 66.1W 17.1N 68.1W 17.9N 70.1W
BAMD 15.4N 64.0W 16.3N 66.1W 17.1N 68.0W 17.9N 69.7W
BAMM 15.4N 64.0W 16.2N 66.0W 17.0N 67.8W 17.7N 69.6W
LBAR 15.4N 64.0W 16.6N 66.0W 18.0N 68.0W 19.5N 69.9W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS 52KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130906 0000 130907 0000 130908 0000 130909 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.7N 71.9W 19.4N 75.1W 19.8N 77.7W 20.2N 79.9W
BAMD 18.5N 71.2W 19.5N 73.7W 20.4N 75.1W 21.5N 75.6W
BAMM 18.3N 71.1W 18.9N 73.7W 19.4N 75.4W 19.9N 76.3W
LBAR 20.8N 71.4W 23.3N 73.6W 25.9N 73.8W 29.2N 72.1W
SHIP 61KTS 70KTS 74KTS 74KTS
DSHP 61KTS 51KTS 54KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.4N LONCUR = 64.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 14.8N LONM12 = 62.2W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 14.4N LONM24 = 60.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Curiously, the BAM Medium, which the SHIPs intensity forecast follows, is holding firm on a steady W-NW track across Cuba similar to the euro. While a recurve is likely I'm not sure its a slam dunk yet. Too many unknowns yet such as intensity (could stay weak if it travels the masses of the greater antilles), timing and strength of trough, and the progressivity of the mid-atlantic high pressure building in.

My general rule of thumb is to discount the BAM Models when dealing with a deepening/organizing system. They are usually far outliers in such situations.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.