ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[tailgater]

Chantal doesn't look nearly as good as it did yesterday...looks like it may be trying to elongate and open back up into strong wave?

That radar image loop did not look like an wave.

[BUCMAN48]

will keep an "eye" out for the slow down probably sometime tomorrow- Thank you both.

[galaxy401]

Advisory coming out late. I wonder if they're debating the strength of this storm and/or waiting for recon.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091449
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 28 20130709
144100 1332N 06144W 9702 00391 0145 +217 +196 222002 004 017 001 00
144130 1332N 06145W 9696 00395 0145 +215 +198 271001 002 018 000 00
144200 1332N 06147W 9697 00394 0145 +216 +199 015001 001 019 000 00
144230 1332N 06148W 9701 00390 0144 +218 +196 062002 002 018 000 00
144300 1332N 06150W 9701 00391 0146 +217 +199 111000 001 019 000 00
144330 1332N 06151W 9695 00397 0147 +213 +202 086001 002 020 000 00
144400 1332N 06153W 9699 00392 0146 +215 +202 066002 003 019 000 00
144430 1333N 06155W 9700 00391 0146 +215 +195 000002 003 020 001 00
144500 1333N 06156W 9696 00395 0147 +211 +196 046003 003 022 002 00
144530 1333N 06158W 9703 00390 0148 +210 +204 059004 005 025 002 00
144600 1333N 06159W 9699 00395 0149 +210 +199 067004 005 026 006 00
144630 1333N 06201W 9697 00397 0148 +210 +194 059004 005 027 006 00
144700 1333N 06203W 9699 00392 0146 +216 +193 028004 004 026 006 00
144730 1333N 06204W 9700 00391 0145 +220 +189 010002 003 023 005 00
144800 1333N 06206W 9698 00394 0145 +219 +188 055002 002 022 004 00
144830 1333N 06208W 9699 00391 0144 +220 +186 090003 003 025 003 00
144900 1333N 06209W 9703 00387 0144 +218 +190 107005 006 025 005 00
144930 1333N 06211W 9701 00389 0143 +220 +191 107006 007 029 008 00
145000 1334N 06212W 9696 00391 0142 +219 +190 121007 007 031 008 00
145030 1334N 06214W 9699 00391 0144 +218 +194 101008 008 030 008 00
$$
;

[floridasun78]

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FROM BARAHONA TO SAMANA AND ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

[Thunder44]

Up to 50kt on 11am Advisory.

[artist]

through 28

[hurricanefloyd5]

hurricane watch out now been issued

[SouthFloridawx]

Thanks artist

[adam0983]

The NHC must be adjusting the track this why the advisory is taking so long. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[Alyono]

gusting to hurricane force on Martinique

[artist]

glad to help, guys

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091459
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 29 20130709
145100 1334N 06216W 9704 00387 0145 +213 +200 095009 011 033 008 03
145130 1335N 06217W 9696 00395 0145 +209 +200 099012 013 /// /// 03
145200 1336N 06216W 9705 00392 0151 +209 +200 098012 013 031 008 00
145230 1337N 06214W 9699 00394 0147 +214 +198 087012 013 031 007 00
145300 1338N 06213W 9698 00394 0144 +222 +195 091011 012 019 001 00
145330 1339N 06212W 9704 00389 0147 +212 +202 071010 012 019 001 00
145400 1340N 06211W 9696 00394 0145 +210 +206 058007 009 016 001 00
145430 1341N 06210W 9705 00385 0144 +210 +203 062007 008 016 001 00
145500 1342N 06209W 9698 00391 0141 +219 +197 044003 006 015 001 00
145530 1344N 06208W 9705 00384 0142 +215 +197 024002 003 015 001 00
145600 1345N 06207W 9696 00389 0139 +216 +199 300003 003 016 001 00
145630 1346N 06206W 9704 00381 0137 +224 +197 317003 004 017 001 00
145700 1347N 06205W 9698 00389 0139 +224 +195 017005 006 016 001 00
145730 1348N 06203W 9701 00383 0136 +220 +196 033007 007 017 001 00
145800 1349N 06202W 9699 00384 0134 +220 +199 035006 007 019 001 00
145830 1350N 06201W 9699 00380 0130 +220 +198 024005 006 020 001 00
145900 1351N 06200W 9700 00375 0127 +224 +198 004003 004 020 000 00
145930 1352N 06159W 9699 00378 0128 +224 +198 029004 004 022 001 00
150000 1353N 06158W 9696 00378 0126 +225 +199 040002 004 022 000 00
150030 1354N 06157W 9705 00370 0125 +220 +201 241002 004 022 002 00
$$

[rockyman]

Westward shift at 11am:

5 day forecast:
5am: 120H 28.5N 77.5W
11am: 120H 27.5N 78.0W

1 degree south and .5 degrees west

[Alyono]

strange intensity forecast from NHC. They seem to be windshield wipering on intensity

[northjaxpro]

Up to 50kt on 11am Advisory.

Based on the very latest Recon data, I think 50 kts is pretty reasonable intensity estimate from the NHC advisory.

[floridasun78]

their now got system close to been hurr so their need update the watch and warring so avd will be out bit late i got TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
1500 UTC TUE JUL 09 2013
so rest be out soon

[AdamFirst]

gusting to hurricane force on Martinique

From the advisory:

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. TRINITY CARABELLE IN THE
NORTHEAST TIP OF MARTINIQUE RECENTLY REPORTED WINDS OF NEAR 60
MPH...95 KM/H.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
1100 AM AST TUE JUL 09 2013

...CHANTAL MOVING BETWEEN MARTINIQUE AND ST. LUCIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 61.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM NW OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND WATCH FOR BARBADOS AND ST. VINCENT.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FROM BARAHONA TO SAMANA AND ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF
HAITI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARAHONA TO SAMANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE
* GUADELOUPE
* PUERTO RICO
* ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* TURKS AND CAICOS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...
BARBADOS AND MARTINIQUE RADAR INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST. CHANTAL IS MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 29 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF CHANTAL WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER
TODAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H.
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANTAL MOVES OVER HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. TRINITY CARABELLE IN THE
NORTHEAST TIP OF MARTINIQUE RECENTLY REPORTED WINDS OF NEAR 60
MPH...95 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...AND REACH PUERTO RICO TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HAITI BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. A STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE
WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. 3 TO 6 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
1100 AM AST TUE JUL 09 2013

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT DISTINCT BUT EXCELLENT RADAR DATA
FROM BARBADOS AND MARTINIQUE SHOW THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
CHANTAL MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD ABOUT 25 KNOTS BETWEEN MARTINIQUE
AN ST. LUCIA. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REPORTED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF
70 TO 75 KT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER EARLIER TODAY WITH A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. SINCE THAT TIME...THE PRESSURE HAS LEVELED OFF
TO ABOUT 1006 MB. BASED ON MORE REPRESENTIVE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
PLANE...AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50
KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF CHANTAL IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS IS
FORECAST BEFORE CHANTAL CROSSES HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE IN THE AREA OF THE BAHAMAS FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY SMALL STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED AFTER THE CYCLONE CROSSES HISPANIOLA. THIS IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE TREND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.

CHANTAL IS RACING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 25
KNOTS. I AM SURPRISED THE SYSTEM EVEN HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION
MOVING AT THAT SPEED. CHANTAL IS BEING STEERED BY A RATHER STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...AS THE STORM MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
AND HISPANIOLA...THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND
THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. BY DAY 4 AND 5 THE STERING CURRENTS WILL BE WEAK AND
CHANTAL WILL PROBABLY MOVE VERY SLOWLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 14.4N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 15.8N 65.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 17.4N 68.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 19.3N 71.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/1200Z 21.3N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 24.5N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 26.5N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 27.5N 78.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Alyono]

the airport has had sustained of 52 KT with a gust to 68 KT