ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Riptide]

Still visible on Martinique radar
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

Looks horrible, that vortex has started traveling WSW...a sure sign of a decoupling system. At this point, I don't think it is gaining enough laditude to avoid the shredder.

In all fairness though...that radar has always been hard for me to read (and I dont speak French which makes it a little more difficult to navigate)

Yeah, the radar could be off-tilt or something. Satellite somewhat matches up with it but not quite.

[Aric Dunn]

ULL goes *poof*. I'm not sure about this run. That low has been a determined mamajama, I don't see it filling in suddenly overnight.

that and the weakness is already present.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks horrible, that vortex has started traveling WSW...a sure sign of a decoupling system. At this point, I don't think it is gaining enough laditude to avoid the shredder.

In all fairness though...that radar has always been hard for me to read (and I dont speak French which makes it a little more difficult to navigate)

Yeah, the radar could be off-tilt or something. Satellite somewhat matches up with it but not quite.

I see nothing wrong with it other than the color scheme is odd.. the wobbles are normal typical of systems with lop sided convection. the center will get pulled everytime convection fires

[adam0983]

Tropical storm Chantal is truly a remarkable storm. Logic would state the a storm moving 29 mph would fall apart and become nothing. The storm continues to survive and define the odds truly an incredible storm what ever happens. Just an a opinion not a forecast.

[Jevo]

The only thing of note I can find @ MSLP is the loop over SFL @ 78

[Janie2006]

Yep, and yet GFS would have us think (well, if it could think) that the ULL fills in, the weakness disappears, and a 588 ridge builds north of Hispanola, all within 45 hours? That low has been tracking across the Atlantic for a number of days now....not gonna happen. So, I agree. Looks like a bad run.

[Aric Dunn]

The onlt real hard question .. does enough of it survive DR to even reform again..

[northjaxpro]

The ULL in the Bahamas has been a very prominent entity in which I have tracked since it emerged from the Central Atlantic one week ago. I can't forsee the ULL just dampening out that quickly.

[funster]

Chantal is even faster than Usain Bolt. Bolt's top speed is 27.79 mph (for a very brief period) http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1283 ... c-sprinter

[Dave]

Thanks Jeremy & Artist for taking this one today, I had family things I had to do this morning no choice. I'll be on the one tonight.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091559
AF302 0203A CHANTAL HDOB 35 20130709
155100 1513N 06245W 9697 00395 0145 +216 +208 059038 040 035 001 00
155130 1513N 06246W 9700 00389 0142 +217 +208 060040 042 035 001 00
155200 1513N 06248W 9696 00394 0143 +224 +204 061043 044 035 001 00
155230 1512N 06250W 9704 00386 0144 +217 +204 062037 042 034 000 03
155300 1511N 06251W 9691 00402 0146 +220 +201 065035 038 /// /// 03
155330 1510N 06251W 9699 00391 0144 +224 +198 070034 035 031 000 00
155400 1510N 06251W 9699 00391 0142 +224 +196 068034 035 031 002 00
155430 1508N 06249W 9702 00387 0142 +224 +198 069034 036 032 000 00
155500 1507N 06248W 9699 00389 0141 +223 +197 066032 033 031 000 00
155530 1506N 06247W 9698 00391 0142 +221 +200 060029 031 030 002 00
155600 1505N 06246W 9703 00384 0141 +220 +202 057031 032 033 001 00
155630 1504N 06245W 9704 00384 0141 +222 +200 056031 033 032 001 00
155700 1503N 06243W 9703 00385 0141 +220 +201 052033 034 032 001 03
155730 1502N 06242W 9697 00390 0140 +219 +202 053034 034 032 001 00
155800 1501N 06241W 9698 00390 0140 +217 +202 053034 035 033 001 00
155830 1500N 06240W 9699 00387 0139 +219 +203 053038 040 033 001 00
155900 1459N 06239W 9695 00387 0135 +220 +202 048038 040 034 000 00
155930 1458N 06238W 9703 00380 0134 +223 +194 045036 037 033 000 00
160000 1457N 06237W 9700 00381 0133 +220 +195 043034 036 031 001 00
160030 1456N 06236W 9701 00378 0131 +224 +192 046035 036 033 000 00
$$
;

[ronjon]

Global models don't seem to have the resolution to depict such a small storm. Probably better off looking at the higher resolution dynamic tropical models with this one.

[artist]

[ROCK]

hmmm, this looks like the 06Z of the all powerful NAVGEM run....

[floridasun78]

ull not moving that much it suppose move over FL maybe high got it were cannot move

[hurricanefloyd5]

I know what happened.. the gfs now no longer weakens the ridge enough to alow her to get out of the carrib. check out the ridge north of her from the 6z to now also note the upper low in the gulf that causes the weakness no longer there at the 12z... thrown this run out.. that upper low over northern bahamas now still quite prevalent.



6z


is there any possible way that this storm could ride the north coast of the Dominican Republic and still

12z

is there any possible way or any chance I should say that this storm a skirt in northern code of the Dominican Republic and still stay strong and strengthening come my way

[Fego]

even if it falls apart like it might, it could be quite the rain maker for Florida

How much has this to do with Chantal's movement so long near the ICTZ?

[SouthFloridawx]

Exactly. How many times have we seen this?

The onlt real hard question .. does enough of it survive DR to even reform again..

[floridasun78]

next 48 what we need see were it go into Dominican Republic if go ne coast or cut in middle

[artist]

Thanks Jeremy & Artist for taking this one today, I had family things I had to do this morning no choice. I'll be on the one tonight.

no problem, Dave.