ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[ColdFusion]

92L under the right conditions has the "potential" to be a large system. IMO

I think you could apply that to just about any invest though right?

[ROCK]

IMO, 92L will have no choice but to gain latitude as it nears the Yucatan Peninsula into the southern GOM and not into the BOC.[/quote]

what do you mean it never fails? and what alternative model has no bias? or doesnt deviate from run to run?

in order for 92L to gain any sort of latitude it needs consolidate a LLC before it runs into Belize...we dont have a center so we are guessing as are the models right now...

[ROCK]

Rock question with a mlc will you get the same movement/direction as a surface low if it had one

with nothing at the surface the MLC goes with the low level flow.

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah Rock, like many others have already said, I think it really depends on where the LLC gets going. If it develops near the NE Yucatan Peninsula, then it's likely NGOM bound. Further down the Yucatan Peninsula/Belize area, it's most likely BOC bound.

[Rgv20]

Afternoon Discussion out of the NWS Corpus Christi

WITH RESPECT TO THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...THE LESS ORGANIZED SOLUTIONS OF 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/NAM KEEPING
THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY FRIDAY AND WEST-NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST
MEXICO BY SUNDAY. THE GFS/CMC/NOGAPS CONTINUE SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
AREA SPINNING UP NEAR THE YUCATAN THAT THEN TAKES OFF TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF BUT THESE MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY OF
GENERATING A TROPICAL SYSTEM TOO QUICKLY AND THEREFORE DISREGARDED
AT THIS TIME. MODELS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WEAKENING BY MONDAY
AND RETROGRADING TOWARD THE COAST AS A SHEAR AXIS TUESDAY. WILL SHOW
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS
TUESDAY.

[ROCK]

Afternoon Discussion out of the NWS Corpus Christi

WITH RESPECT TO THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...THE LESS ORGANIZED SOLUTIONS OF 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/NAM KEEPING
THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY FRIDAY AND WEST-NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST
MEXICO BY SUNDAY. THE GFS/CMC/NOGAPS CONTINUE SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
AREA SPINNING UP NEAR THE YUCATAN THAT THEN TAKES OFF TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF BUT THESE MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY OF
GENERATING A TROPICAL SYSTEM TOO QUICKLY AND THEREFORE DISREGARDED
AT THIS TIME. MODELS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WEAKENING BY MONDAY
AND RETROGRADING TOWARD THE COAST AS A SHEAR AXIS TUESDAY. WILL SHOW
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS
TUESDAY.

wow!! a NWS office disregarding a NGOM solution....they are following the EURO/ UKMET/ and the NAM...hmmmm...they must be reading my posts....great minds think alike!

[lrak]

Afternoon Discussion out of the NWS Corpus Christi

WITH RESPECT TO THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...THE LESS ORGANIZED SOLUTIONS OF 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/NAM KEEPING
THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY FRIDAY AND WEST-NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST
MEXICO BY SUNDAY. THE GFS/CMC/NOGAPS CONTINUE SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
AREA SPINNING UP NEAR THE YUCATAN THAT THEN TAKES OFF TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF BUT THESE MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY OF
GENERATING A TROPICAL SYSTEM TOO QUICKLY AND THEREFORE DISREGARDED
AT THIS TIME. MODELS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WEAKENING BY MONDAY
AND RETROGRADING TOWARD THE COAST AS A SHEAR AXIS TUESDAY. WILL SHOW
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS
TUESDAY.

I hope it kicks up a swell for S TX. Sure has been flat this summer.

[Caribwxgirl]

It looks like night here right now the sky is so dark!

[petit_bois]

It looks like night here right now the sky is so dark!

Here too!

[NDG]

what do you mean it never fails? and what alternative model has no bias? or doesnt deviate from run to run?

in order for 92L to gain any sort of latitude it needs consolidate a LLC before it runs into Belize...we dont have a center so we are guessing as are the models right now...

The ECMWF always tends to over do it with ridging in the GOM. ( a couple of examples this season: Barry, 94L.....)
If a MLC becomes well organized with 92L it will follow the weakness at the mid levels that will be developing over the GOM in a couple of days into the weekend, the system as a whole should continue gaining latitude over the next few days.

[Dean4Storms]

what do you mean it never fails? and what alternative model has no bias? or doesnt deviate from run to run?

in order for 92L to gain any sort of latitude it needs consolidate a LLC before it runs into Belize...we dont have a center so we are guessing as are the models right now...

The ECMWF always tends to over do it with ridging in the GOM. ( a couple of examples this season: Barry, 94L.....)
If a MLC becomes well organized with 92L it will follow the weakness at the mid levels that will be developing over the GOM in a couple of days into the weekend, the system as a whole should continue gaining latitude over the next few days.

I agree, not trusting the ECMWF on this one, it loves extending that Atlantic Ridge and just can't see it with this deep a trough.

[ronjon]

Latest TAFB 72 hour forecast places a low just north of the Yucatan with a movement arrow up into the FL big bend. Looks like NHCs thinking has come around to a northern GOM solution now.

[ROCK]

I guess we will have to see the evolution of this wave.....already one NWS office totally dismisses the NGOM solution.

[TheStormExpert]

Doesn't shock me the Atlantic is coming to life with Invests 92L and 93L since the Eastern Pacific is starting to gradually quiet down for now.

[duris]

I guess we will have to see the evolution of this wave.....already one NWS office totally dismisses the NGOM solution.

Ditto New Orleans:

REGARDING THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AM STILL
EXPECTING A WEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SLUG OF MOISTURE THAT
WILL BREAK OFF WITH A NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE...AND THIS
MOISTURE AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY PASS EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

[NDG]

I guess we will have to see the evolution of this wave.....already one NWS office totally dismisses the NGOM solution.

It would not be the first time a NWS Office would be wrong because siding with the ECMWF instead of the GFS

[RL3AO]

Local WFOs vs TAFB/NHC

[ROCK]

I guess we will have to see the evolution of this wave.....already one NWS office totally dismisses the NGOM solution.

It would not be the first time a NWS Office would be wrong because siding with the ECMWF instead of the GFS

that is 2 NWS offices now. Sure hope they are not wrong.


yeah I am not biting on your need for a model argument... we will see what happens.....

[Stormcenter]

And it probably won't be the last. IMO

I guess we will have to see the evolution of this wave.....already one NWS office totally dismisses the NGOM solution.

It would not be the first time a NWS Office would be wrong because siding with the ECMWF instead of the GFS

[N2FSU]

Latest TAFB 72 hour forecast places a low just north of the Yucatan with a movement arrow up into the FL big bend. Looks like NHCs thinking has come around to a northern GOM solution now.

Can you post the graphic ronjon?