ATL: KAREN - Models

[WPBWeather]

Models have shifted toward an upper Gulf Coast situation with whatever is there.

Upper meaning upper Florida peninsula/panhandle?

ECM...LA then eastward. GFS....FL Panhandle then eastward. GGEM.... loop in eastern Gulf then toward Cedar Key.

Mets in South FL (SF Sun Sentinel) say if anything comes, its central to south FL.

[LaBreeze]

Models have shifted toward an upper Gulf Coast situation with whatever is there.

Upper meaning upper Florida peninsula/panhandle?

ECM...LA then eastward. GFS....FL Panhandle then eastward. GGEM.... loop in eastern Gulf then toward Cedar Key.

Thanks for the response Dean, which model makes more sense to you at this moment? I know things can and will change. I respect your insight.

[Blown Away]

06z HWRF has moderate TS landfalling near Ft Myers...

[Blown Away]

12z models...


12z intensity models...

[dixiebreeze]

Does anyone have any idea where this might be around Oct. 19? Thanks.

[Blown Away]

Does anyone have any idea where this might be around Oct. 19? Thanks.

Nearly all the models have this disturbed area out of the GOM/FL area by @ 8 days... I think its pretty safe to say this weather/97L will be long gone by Oct 19th...

[N2FSU]

18z Tropicals:

[Dean4Storms]

ECM...LA then eastward. GFS....FL Panhandle then eastward. GGEM.... loop in eastern Gulf then toward Cedar Key.

Thanks for the response Dean, which model makes more sense to you at this moment? I know things can and will change. I respect your insight.

With the marginal conditions you just can't ignore the ECM and GFS, something struggling to deepen is just going to get caught up in the low level flow IMO and head for the upper Gulf Coast about LA eastward ahead of the front. Lots of moisture the main concern.

[supercane4867]

I see 18Z GFS brings back the development showing a weak TS in northern gulf

[jlauderdal]

I see 18Z GFS brings back the development showing a weak TS in northern gulf

dont see how anything gets going in northern gulf with that front moving in

[N2FSU]

I see 18Z GFS brings back the development showing a weak TS in northern gulf

Yep. 18z GFS; 96hr

[Hammy]

I see 18Z GFS brings back the development showing a weak TS in northern gulf

dont see how anything gets going in northern gulf with that front moving in

Haven't most of the fronts lately ended up weaker in the Gulf than initially expected?

[Dean4Storms]

I see 18Z GFS brings back the development showing a weak TS in northern gulf

dont see how anything gets going in northern gulf with that front moving in

The Gulf is untapped SST wise so unless the shear is screaming a northward moving TC could offset the effects of marginal shear from the SW for some strengthening.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

But as we've seen all season warm waters obviously mean nothing. Even if shear is not that high, which don't see how it won't, dry air will probably be the killer combined with shear.

And yes hammy most of all the fronts affecting the gulf coast have ended up being weaker than forecast. This one very well could weaken and run out of steam just like the current one that was supposed to move through here Sunday.

[TheStormExpert]

http://img32.imageshack.us/img32/7175/pry8.jpg
06z HWRF has moderate TS landfalling near Ft Myers...

You have to assume this has very little chance of doing much when the always robust HWRF has only a moderate TS.

[ROCK]

The EURO didnt really show anything but moisture from SW LA east hugging the coast.

[N2FSU]

06z Tropicals:

[N2FSU]

06z GFS; 75hr

[ronjon]

00z HWRF - moderate tropical storm into the FL big bend.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2013100100-invest97l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Blown Away]

06z HWRF has a 97 mph Cat 2 heading towards Mississippi...


06z GFDL showing same thing heading towards Alabama... It appears 97L would have ramped up more if it had moved just E of the Yucatan instead of over it...