ATL: GABRIELLE - Models

[ronjon]

18z GFS depends on the sister convection developing north of 97L to really deepen and erode the ridge allowing 97L to escape northeast in the sw atlantic. Complex situation with lots of variables.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

[gatorcane]

18z GFS depends on the sister convection developing north of 97L to really deepen and erode the ridge allowing 97L to escape northeast in the sw atlantic. Complex situation with lots of variables.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

Yeah I agree, as we have seen too many times with the tropics, it's rare something is a "slam-dunk" especially when, in this particular scenario, the models show some kind of stall around Hispaniola and we are talking about the recurve path resuming in the medium-range guidance (4-5 day timeframe) which is prone to errors.

Currently the UKMET/ECMWF show 97L tracking NW between Hispaniola and Puerto Rico then bending more west and stalling for several days (Euro). There will be quite a trough over the Western Atlantic by the end of this week and into the weekend, so you would think anything that deepens rapidly will get pulled north or northeastward into the weakness. The GFS could be suffering convective feedback issues due to the energy to it's east but it does have support from the NAVGEM and CMC plus the area to the east of 97L looks like it is growing in convection so may have a real effect on 97L afterall. If there is some land interaction going on or some erractic movements, who knows what will happen with 97L.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

Here are the 18Z GFS Ensembles. You can see many of the are not calling for a sharp recurve and show 97L heading into an area of weak steering currents in a few days with many bring this system into the Bahamas:

[pgoss11]

Here are the 18Z GFS Ensembles. You can see many of the are not calling for a sharp recurve now and show 97L heading into an area of weak steering currents in a few days with many bring this system into the Bahamas:

Well now that's interesting... this is getting more interesting by the minute.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I'm going with most model consensus taking this north and then east out into the atl. Once again pretty stout trough coming down.

[Riptide]

The 0z NAM is shutting the escape route down, 97L is now there to drift around in the warm Atlantic.

[ROCK]

1023mb high coming down is pretty stout.....but is it coming down fast enough to make a block....one thing about the NAM you can knock it all you want but it does dam good with ridging / trofs etc over the CONUS......

[boca]

Rock are you thinking this might pull a Jean

[ROCK]

Rock are you thinking this might pull a Jean

I need the EURO run tonight before I can commit to anything... The EURO operational run today got me to pause on the NE out to sea scenario....

the EURO always seems to sniff out alternative scenarios and some times the other models follow.

[boca]

I wish I could stay up til 3am for the outcome but I have work tomorrow but ill check in the morning

[ROCK]

I wish I could stay up til 3am for the outcome but I have work tomorrow but ill check in the morning

yeah if this was a GOM issue I would stay up for it.... but got to pay the bills....

[ROCK]

no one posting the 0Z GFS?....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

weird run....west low gets shredded over Hispa....the east low leads the way and eventually develops well out to the NE....at 144hr..the west low doesnt really develop....

the east low doesnt look all the strong either....a suspect run for me. Need the EURO, CMC to get some kind of consenus....

[Hurricaneman]

This run at 153hrs seems to leave a 1009 low about 500miles east of the Bahamas getting trapped by the ridge

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_50.png

and at 159 seems to break into like 4 different vortmaxes which is really weird, possible convective feedback

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_54.png

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ROCK]

This run at 153hrs seems to leave a 1009 low about 500miles east of the Bahamas getting trapped by the ridge

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_50.png

trapped by the ridge waiting for the next exit...that far north...

[Hurricaneman]

This run at 153hrs seems to leave a 1009 low about 500miles east of the Bahamas getting trapped by the ridge

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_50.png

trapped by the ridge waiting for the next exit...that far north...

yep as seen at 159 its already leaving but there seems a vortmax near Jamaica, could that be a piece of 97L or some other tropical wave?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ROCK]

This run at 153hrs seems to leave a 1009 low about 500miles east of the Bahamas getting trapped by the ridge

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_50.png

trapped by the ridge waiting for the next exit...that far north...

yep as seen at 159 its already leaving but there seems a vortmax near Jamaica, could that be a piece of 97L or some other tropical wave?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I think that is another one....would have to track down source.....also noticed something in the BOC but nothing that organized...

[ROCK]

I suspect some model flopping now....case in point 0Z NAVGEM

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

the west low goes well west into Jamiaca where it dissolves into nothing...the East low developes sort of only to dissolve as well......oh brother!!

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS even though it is post truncation seems to retrograde the southern vortamx back to Florida, looks like IMO we have to wait until its gone well into the north Atlantic before we know where this is going and the GFS seems to slowly be trending towards the Euro as to where it goes so where this ends up is slowly becoming less cut and dry

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Blown Away]

06z...TVCN still says recurve after PR/Hispaniola...That's what I'm going with...

[Blown Away]

06z...

963
WHXX01 KWBC 040508
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0508 UTC WED SEP 4 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972013) 20130904 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130904 0600 130904 1800 130905 0600 130905 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 64.8W 16.8N 67.1W 17.7N 69.1W 18.5N 71.2W
BAMD 15.8N 64.8W 16.7N 66.8W 17.5N 68.7W 18.2N 70.4W
BAMM 15.8N 64.8W 16.7N 66.9W 17.4N 68.7W 18.2N 70.4W
LBAR 15.8N 64.8W 16.8N 66.6W 18.0N 68.5W 19.5N 70.3W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130906 0600 130907 0600 130908 0600 130909 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.9N 73.1W 19.4N 76.6W 19.6N 79.6W 20.2N 82.4W
BAMD 18.8N 71.9W 19.7N 74.4W 20.8N 75.6W 21.6N 76.1W
BAMM 18.6N 71.9W 19.1N 74.4W 19.5N 76.1W 19.9N 77.2W
LBAR 20.6N 71.6W 23.2N 73.8W 25.8N 73.5W 28.6N 71.9W
SHIP 52KTS 61KTS 66KTS 69KTS
DSHP 36KTS 44KTS 49KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.8N LONCUR = 64.8W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 15.1N LONM12 = 63.1W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 61.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM