ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Janie2006]

12z cmc the same.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Borderline Cat 1 into the most unlikely place.. Seems legit

I think David was the last GA hit back in 79

Cat 1....easily done, assuming (1) she survives Hispanola, (2) the ULL continues its march westward, and (3) the ridge stays intact. A Georgia landfall would be something, though!

[Evil Jeremy]

Recon ascending above operational altitude. Mission over, they are headed home. This recon mission has been active since 7:00am. By the time they land, it will have been a 7 hour mission. Next mission takes off around 7:00pm tonight.

[ScottNAtlanta]

not bad looking on radar.

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/ ... inique.gif

Maybe it was out of range...but in the last 2 frames almost looked like the center collapsed.

[meriland23]

Someone mentioned a bit earlier that .. the speed it goes past the mountains will still tear it up. I just have a hard time believing that seeing as it is booking it at almost 30 mph... not saying it wont have a effect on the cyclone, but as big of a effect as it would being a slow moving cyclone?

[artist]

[floridasun78]

Recon ascending above operational altitude. Mission over, they are headed home. This recon mission has been active since 7:00am. By the time they land, it will have been a 7 hour mission. Next mission takes off around 7:00pm tonight.

i notice that it was long flight

[torrea40]

It's only 9mph to Hurracane Cat.1......Yesterday commented this discussion.

[floridasun78]

let see wind go 70mph at 5pm

[Weatherboy1]

Yeah, this one doesn't look ready to peter out to me though I suppose anything is possible. I am concerned that IF she survives the trip from her current location to and through Hispanola, she may have a pretty decent chance of ramping up later in the forecast period. Certainly not to MAJOR hurricane status, in my opinion. But a few models do seem to be noting the possibility of strengthening if she slows down and has time to get her act together in the area of the Bahamas.

[meriland23]

I don't understand why GFS shows absolutely nothing for it.. at any point.. even now.. when it is strengthening the way it is .

[Airboy]

Yeah, long flight, how many hours can the recons be in air from start to stop?

[Aric Dunn]

euro at 48 hour.. finally something.. though not closed its at least trackable.

[Janie2006]

Sometimes you get a bad run of the model....it doesn't initialize properly, etcetera. OTOH, occasionally the model sniffs a change in the synoptic set-up and you get this sort of thing as well.

[adam0983]

I am at total loss of words with this storm on how the GFS and Euro show nothing. Just an opinion and not a forecast.

[Evil Jeremy]

ECMWF 24 Hours:



48 Hours:

[Aric Dunn]

72 hr looks closed sitting over grand bahama

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... b&hour=072

[Evil Jeremy]

72 Hours:

[Aric Dunn]

jeremy do the continental view or at least the winds

[floridasun78]

look like model not able forecast CHANTAL that well because all weather going round CHANTAL strong high,shear,dry air

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 55kts.

AL, 03, 2013070918, , BEST, 0, 148N, 627W, 55, 1006, TS