ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

Mainly a resolution issue IMO, a very small storm sometimes gets missed. Both models seem to have issues in the deep tropics, with the GFS being a little better at finding smaller systems.

[tailgater]

I have Chantel moving at 292 degrees( average over the last 6 VDM's). If that continues it will pass along the southern edge of DR and Haiti which would be the Worst for those folks and best for CONUS. I'm sure they don't want it.
The Upper low in the Fla. straits should be a key factor as stated before

[Aric Dunn]

odd the GFDL went way north.. still has a bend back west though.. its because its based of the gfs..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[floridasun78]

18z Best Track up to 55kts.

AL, 03, 2013070918, , BEST, 0, 148N, 627W, 55, 1006, TS

did pressure go up a bit
?

[Alyono]

Someone mentioned a bit earlier that .. the speed it goes past the mountains will still tear it up. I just have a hard time believing that seeing as it is booking it at almost 30 mph... not saying it wont have a effect on the cyclone, but as big of a effect as it would being a slow moving cyclone?

In 2001, a near cat 5 Iris tried crossing the mountains in Guatemala moving at about 25 mph. It dissipated in just 12 hours

[Aric Dunn]

hwrf looses it but reforms it on the wide view landfall near daytona or jax

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[ronjon]

I don't understand why GFS shows absolutely nothing for it.. at any point.. even now.. when it is strengthening the way it is .

It's the resolution of the global models that maybe too coarse to adequately simulate this rather tiny storm. I remember GFS struggles with hurricane Dean, a cat 4-5. Just showed a weak low. I would look at the synoptic setup with the globals now rather than than focus on its intensity. The finer resolution HRWF and GFDL can be better at intensity although the GFDL tends to overdo it frequently.

[Hammy]

I don't understand why GFS shows absolutely nothing for it.. at any point.. even now.. when it is strengthening the way it is .

the same thing happened with Andrea when it was in its formative stages (though the small size may be the issue in this case) where despite what played out it was having a difficult time initializing it.

[Blinhart]

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al032013_inten.png

On this graph it shows 6 different models bringing Chantal to at least Cat 1 strength.

[tolakram]

I'm jumping on the 'not looking good' bandwagon. Can't see the LLC yet but convection appears to be waning.

[BobHarlem]

Chantal being so small and the fact is moving so quickly wnw has resulted in some of the worst model initialization I've ever seen.

[ronjon]

hwrf looses it but reforms it on the wide view landfall near daytona or jax

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

yeah Aric definite shift north on the tropical models and CMC. It looks like its an increase in forward speed in the models which is causing the increased northward movement before the bend west.

[Blinhart]

Someone mentioned a bit earlier that .. the speed it goes past the mountains will still tear it up. I just have a hard time believing that seeing as it is booking it at almost 30 mph... not saying it wont have a effect on the cyclone, but as big of a effect as it would being a slow moving cyclone?

In 2001, a near cat 5 Iris tried crossing the mountains in Guatemala moving at about 25 mph. It dissipated in just 12 hours

Yes but the mountains and land area around Guatemala is totally different from that of Hispaniola. Comparing the two areas is totally useless, also the way a Cat 5 compared to the most a Cat 1 Chantal means that there will be a totally different effect of the storms and the angle and speed of the storm makes a huge difference.

[Blown Away]

odd the GFDL went way north.. still has a bend back west though.. its because its based of the gfs..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Much faster than previous runs so it goes farther north before ridge builds in...

[adam0983]

Now some models are taking tropical storm Chantal to Carolinas. Not a forecast just an opinion.

[tolakram]

Saved RGB loop. A view from further out might be showing increased organization, but I'm never good at spotting it until after it happens.

[Blown Away]

18z..

[adam0983]

Models look to be in good agreement now.

[Stormlover2012]

All about the ridge babyy, models haven't been in agreement yet!! No consistency what so ever

[ROCK]

maybe the EURO was not out to lunch as first thought....