ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

I think 91L has slowed a tad in forward motion.

[Blown Away]

What time does the recon go out?

[NDG]

Shear is dropping ahead of the system.
At San Juan's sounding last night, it showed 36 knot winds at H200.
This morning's sounding show winds at 26 knots at the same height.

[ROCK]

I think 91L has slowed a tad in forward motion.

I think we are seeing the ULL shear hit it in the front now shearing off the tops...sort of an illusion....JMO....

[HURAKAN]

yet, the airports at Antigua and Barbuda are reporting NE winds

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/AG_cc.html

[Texashawk]

This open wave has some amazing outflow.

[Blown Away]

yet, the airports at Antigua and Barbuda are reporting NE winds

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/AG_cc.html

Who's right>? Barbuda weather station clearly reporting W winds??

[NDG]

yet, the airports at Antigua and Barbuda are reporting NE winds

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/AG_cc.html

This airport is about 50 miles so south of the island of Barbuda where the westerly winds are being reported.

[Bocadude85]

I do not see how this won't be shredded by that ULL

[NDG]

I do not see how this won't be shredded by that ULL

The Euro is still persistent that the UL trough will weaken or move out of the way over the next 72 hrs or so.
I have circled where 91L should be by Tuesday night, notice the light winds at H200.

[SFLcane]

Nothing there per masters...

The remains of Tropical Storm Dorian will be passing just north of northern Lesser Antilles Islands today and just north of Puerto Rico tonight. Satellite images show no signs of a surface circulation, and just a moderate area of heavy thunderstorms associated with the storm. AIr Force hurricane hunter aircraft are on call to investigate Dorian's remains on Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon, if necessary. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Dorian's remains a 20% chance of regenerating by Tuesday.

[ROCK]

well it most defintely has a MLC back but I really dont see anything at the surface....of course going off Sat view...RECON will solve all of our issues...


clouds tops are warming also so not a good sign this TW has a LLC....

[NDG]

A good hour and a half now that the station in Barbuda has being reporting westerly winds, now switching back to the SSW in the last report.

07 28 11:54 am SSW 4.1 5.1 - - - - 30.01 - 81.9 - - - - -
07 28 11:48 am SSW 4.1 4.1 - - - - 30.01 - 81.7 - - - - -
07 28 11:42 am WSW 4.1 5.1 - - - - 30.01 - 82.0 - - - - -
07 28 11:36 am WSW 4.1 5.1 - - - - 30.01 - 81.9 - - - - -
07 28 11:30 am W 4.1 5.1 - - - - 30.01 - 82.0 - - - - -
07 28 11:24 am W 5.1 6.0 - - - - 30.01 - 81.7 - - - - -
07 28 11:18 am W 6.0 7.0 - - - - 30.01 - 80.6 - - - - -
07 28 11:12 am W 6.0 7.0 - - - - 30.01 - 81.0 - - - - -
07 28 11:06 am W 7.0 8.0 - - - - 30.01 - 79.9 - - - - -
07 28 11:00 am WSW 6.0 7.0 - - - - 30.01 +0.01 80.4 - - - - -
07 28 10:54 am WSW 6.0 8.0 - - - - 30.01 - 79.9 - - - - -
07 28 10:48 am WSW 6.0 8.9 - - - - 30.01 - 79.5 - - - - -
07 28 10:42 am SW 8.0 8.9 - - - - 30.02 - 78.3 - - - - -
07 28 10:36 am WSW 7.0 9.9 - - - - 30.02 - 78.6 - - - - -
07 28 10:30 am SSW 11.1 12.0 - - - - 30.02 - 78.3 - - - - -
07 28 10:24 am SSW 11.1 15.9 - - - - 30.02 - 78.6

[ROCK]

in Barbuda shouldnt the pressure be dropping?..

[Evil Jeremy]

If recon finds a closed circulation (which I find highly unlikely), I don't think the NHC will restart advisories yet. I imagine they would wait until tonight to see if Dorian falls apart as the day progresses. Convection already looks to be weakening:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Bocadude85]

Convection is shrinking and waning

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-rb.html

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SUN 28 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JULY 2013
         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-058

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 73
       A. 29/1730Z,2330Z
       B. AFXXX 0304A DORIAN
       C. 29/1600Z
       D. 21.5N 68.0W
       E. 29/1700Z TO 29/2330Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
       A. 30/0530Z,1130Z
       B. AFXXX 0404A DORIAN
       C. 30/0330Z
       D. 22.0N 71.0W
       E. 30/0500Z TO 30/1130Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:  CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
       WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT. 



[NDG]

in Barbuda shouldnt the pressure be dropping?..

Good point, the pressure is only 1 mb lower than 24 hrs but the vorticity/possible LLC is a good 150 miles north of the Island.

[cycloneye]

Sunday's TCPOD is out and this afternoon's mission is going ahead.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=115297&p=2324659#p2324659

[Blown Away]

I can see why Barbuda is reporting westerly winds...