ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

storm4u · #2221 Postby **storm4u** » Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:42 pm

huh at hour 30 looks a tad north of 12z if anything

#2222 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:42 pm

42hr 18z GFS has low over eastern Cuba.

floridasun78 · #2223 Postby **floridasun78** » Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:43 pm

artist wrote:just a comparison of then and now. I will be glad when recon gets back in tonight so we have a better idea.

ok so want show how change doing day yes i like see if plane find open wave or ts

Aric Dunn · #2224 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:44 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:42hr 18z GFS has low over eastern Cuba.

not at the 500mb lvl.. you have to watch that too. 500mb hr 45 heading due north.

again for comparison 12z loses

TheAustinMan · #2225 Postby **TheAustinMan** » Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:44 pm

This is reminding me a bit of Tropical Storm Ernesto as it was entering the eastern Caribbean, a potent albeit disorganized system, though Ernesto was slightly weaker at the time.

Ernesto:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC/tc12/ATL/05L.ERNESTO/vis/geo/1km/20120803.1715.goes13.x.vis1km.05LERNESTO.45kts-1002mb-136N-615W.100pc.jpg

#2226 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:45 pm

At 52hr over Central Cuba moving very slowly WNW

Incoming! · #2227 Postby **Incoming!** » Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:46 pm

Greetings all

I do believe that I was just introduced to Chantal. A nice squall line just pushed through

#2228 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:46 pm

It depends on how amplified the Trough in the great lakes is in 36-48 hours to how far north the Storm makes it. IMO

#2229 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:47 pm

True Aric, but if it decouples like that it is through.

sunnyday · #2230 Postby **sunnyday** » Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:47 pm

But if a "weak tropical storm" should landfall in Fl, for example, how much rain could it generate? 8-)

Aric Dunn · #2231 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:47 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:At 52hr over Central Cuba moving very slowly WNW

again watch the 500mb

due north..

#2232 Postby **NDG** » Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:47 pm

Latest microwave pass still shows the small closed circulation.

Aric Dunn · #2233 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:48 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:True Aric, but if it decouples like that it is through.

if it has a chance to reform the mid level circ with the energy left over will be the place to look not over land..

#2234 Postby **USTropics** » Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:49 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:At 52hr over Central Cuba moving very slowly WNW

Aric Dunn wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:42hr 18z GFS has low over eastern Cuba.

not at the 500mb lvl.. you have to watch that too. 500mb hr 45 heading due north.

Possibly showing the system decoupling?

#2235 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:49 pm

Wow, convection moving out more like outflows in the NW quadrant.

Hurricaneman · #2236 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:50 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:At 52hr over Central Cuba moving very slowly WNW

again watch the 500mb

due north..

If you look at the 500 and the surface, does anyone think a reforming low under the 500 and the current low dies over Cuba similar to what Jeanne did in 2004

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#2237 Postby **USTropics** » Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:50 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:True Aric, but if it decouples like that it is through.

Beat me to it.

Aric Dunn · #2238 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:50 pm

hr 53 east of central bahamas.

Aric Dunn · #2239 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:54 pm

72 hr begins to drift to the west over central bahamas ridging building back in..

floridasun78 · #2240 Postby **floridasun78** » Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:54 pm

NDG wrote:Latest microwave pass still shows the small closed circulation.

that show their still low with CHANTAL alot say like my self it was open wave ty showing us that

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