ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

[Tireman4]

You mean we may have a problem Florida. [/quote]


Actually this would be Florida talking to Houston. [/quote]

And lovely how my town comes across when there is a problem...LOL

[Dean4Storms]

Canadian....12z Forget Dorian, watch Godzilla rise up out of the eastern Carib. Sea just behind it and then disappear back under the Sea!! LOL


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281704
AF301 0104A DORIAN HDOB 07 20130728
165500 2002N 06332W 9771 00348 0165 +240 +220 061017 018 /// /// 03
165530 2004N 06332W 9769 00350 0165 +240 +221 062015 016 /// /// 03
165600 2005N 06331W 9771 00348 0166 +240 +220 066016 016 /// /// 03
165630 2007N 06330W 9768 00351 0165 +240 +221 066015 016 /// /// 03
165700 2009N 06330W 9770 00350 0166 +240 +222 064016 016 /// /// 03
165730 2010N 06329W 9773 00346 0165 +240 +223 060016 016 /// /// 03
165800 2012N 06328W 9769 00349 0166 +240 +225 063016 017 /// /// 03
165830 2013N 06327W 9773 00346 0166 +240 +221 062017 018 /// /// 03
165900 2015N 06327W 9770 00350 0166 +237 +222 061020 022 /// /// 03
165930 2016N 06326W 9766 00352 0165 +238 +212 071023 024 /// /// 03
170000 2018N 06325W 9768 00349 0164 +238 +213 062022 023 /// /// 03
170030 2019N 06325W 9769 00347 0163 +237 +221 062022 023 /// /// 03
170100 2021N 06324W 9770 00347 0164 +235 +225 065020 023 /// /// 03
170130 2023N 06323W 9772 00346 0164 +237 +224 070021 022 /// /// 03
170200 2024N 06323W 9774 00343 0164 +238 +217 077023 023 /// /// 03
170230 2026N 06322W 9771 00346 0164 +235 +219 077024 025 /// /// 03
170300 2027N 06321W 9771 00347 0164 +235 +220 080024 024 /// /// 03
170330 2029N 06321W 9770 00348 0164 +235 +218 081025 026 /// /// 03
170400 2030N 06320W 9770 00346 0163 +236 +214 078025 025 /// /// 03
170430 2032N 06319W 9769 00347 0164 +236 +212 078023 024 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Bocadude85]

12z GFS...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

Maybe just me, but it appears the L begins to gain convection as it approaches just N of Hispaniola and then loses it as it moves into Cuba and finally recurves remnants over SFL...Little deeper system compared to previous runs, still very weak...Maybe the environment ahead is improving and only time will tell..

The 850 Vort remains north of Cuba and goes though the central Bahamas

[gatorcane]

12z GFS...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

Maybe just me, but it appears the L begins to gain convection as it approaches just N of Hispaniola and then loses it as it moves into Cuba and finally recurves remnants over SFL...Little deeper system compared to previous runs, still very weak...Maybe the environment ahead is improving and only time will tell..

12Z GFS 60 hour 200MB winds, showing little shear in the Bahamas:

[SFLcane]

12z GFS brings Dorian's remains to South Florida

Brings what a thunder-shower?

Have had way to many this year.

[Tireman4]

12z GFS brings Dorian's remains to South Florida

Brings what a thunder-shower?

Have had way to many this year.

Nope. Rain..just a soaking rain.

[Bocadude85]

12z GFS brings Dorian's remains to South Florida

Brings what a thunder-shower?

Have had way to many this year.

Yea shows his moisture moving into South Florida.

[Hammy]

GLad the ASCAT showed what I have been seeing all morning long.

I noticed too, looks like inflow from the southwest beginning, and fairly strong as well (as opposed to 5kts or so). Also the latest visible loop shows an eastward-developing storm on the south end of the convection, so I'm wondering if it is closed off at this point.

[AtlanticWind]

Still no real model support.

[bahamaswx]

Cloud tops warming pretty rapidly.

[cycloneye]

Well,I am in San Juan and a light north wind is reported.

12:56 N 7

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/TJSJ.html

[Bocadude85]

Cloud tops warming pretty rapidly.

Some new convection is developing.. lets see if it expands.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-rb.html

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281714
AF301 0104A DORIAN HDOB 08 20130728
170500 2034N 06319W 9770 00347 0164 +235 +214 076023 023 /// /// 03
170530 2035N 06318W 9770 00346 0164 +236 +212 071023 024 /// /// 03
170600 2037N 06317W 9770 00347 0164 +235 +217 071023 023 /// /// 03
170630 2038N 06316W 9768 00347 0163 +235 +222 074023 024 /// /// 03
170700 2040N 06316W 9772 00346 0164 +239 +209 072024 024 /// /// 03
170730 2041N 06315W 9772 00347 0165 +235 +217 073023 024 /// /// 03
170800 2043N 06314W 9769 00349 0165 +235 +223 072023 024 /// /// 03
170830 2044N 06314W 9772 00346 0165 +234 +224 071023 024 /// /// 03
170900 2046N 06313W 9773 00346 0165 +234 +225 072022 023 /// /// 03
170930 2048N 06312W 9769 00349 0165 +235 +225 073023 024 /// /// 03
171000 2049N 06312W 9771 00347 0166 +232 +227 073026 027 /// /// 03
171030 2051N 06311W 9774 00345 0165 +236 +213 067027 028 /// /// 03
171100 2052N 06310W 9766 00352 0166 +238 +199 078025 026 /// /// 03
171130 2054N 06310W 9772 00349 0168 +229 +214 082027 028 /// /// 03
171200 2055N 06309W 9772 00347 0167 +231 +215 084028 029 /// /// 03
171230 2057N 06308W 9772 00347 0166 +234 +210 086030 031 /// /// 03
171300 2058N 06308W 9772 00348 0167 +237 +208 085031 032 /// /// 03
171330 2100N 06307W 9774 00348 0167 +237 +206 084031 032 /// /// 03
171400 2101N 06306W 9771 00350 0168 +237 +207 083032 034 /// /// 03
171430 2103N 06305W 9770 00351 0168 +239 +206 080032 033 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Dave]

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 17:10Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 03

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Sunday, 17:03Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 20.5N 63.3W
Location: 231 miles (371 km) to the NE (51°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 310 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 80° at 25 knots (From the E at ~ 28.7 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 24°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 24°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Thunderstorm(s)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1016 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 30° at 20 knots (From the NNE at ~ 23.0 mph)

[HURAKAN]

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Now that convection has waned some it's easy to see there is a good rotation. Whether that rotation is at the surface or not I can't say.

[Bocadude85]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/flash-vis-long.html
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Now that convection has waned some it's easy to see there is a good rotation. Whether that rotation is at the surface or not I can't say.

You can see some inflow also

[AtlanticWind]

Convection should refire in a few hours ,outflow is strong.