ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[bahamaswx]

Wow, convection moving out more like outflows in the NW quadrant.

Yep. One massive outflow boundary.

[SapphireSea]

Looks like with a trough like that at 500mb whatever does end up at that steering level may go out to sea. I don't see steering collapsing in that case.

[Hurricaneman]

True Aric, but if it decouples like that it is through.

I would say so too, but Jeanne did this exact scenerio in 2004 and hit Florida as a 125mph hurricane, so while I'm not expecting anything close to that but it can't be discounted especially if it has a vigorous 850 to 500 circulation still somewhat in tact

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Stormtrackerjoe]

Usually that is not a good sign wrt to intensification, is it not?

[Aric Dunn]

81 hour drifing over central bahamas.. trough quickly lifting out.

[AtlanticWind]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?mode ... _thick.gif

over south florida

[AtlanticWind]

81 hour drifing over central bahamas.. trough quickly lifting out.

Surface low is over s. fla

[Aric Dunn]

True Aric, but if it decouples like that it is through.

I would say so too, but Jeanne did this exact scenerio in 2004 and hit Florida as a 125mph hurricane, so while I'm not expecting anything close to that but it can't be discounted especially if it has a vigorous 850 to 500 circulation still somewhat in tact

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

jeanne completely degenerated and had no surface circ the mid level vort worked back to the surface.

[NDG]

More proof that it still has a small closed circulation, perhaps not as strong as earlier today.

CLICK HERE

[Aric Dunn]

hr 90 drifting nw.. over the nw bahamas.. trough out of picture ridge filling in behind it.

[ozonepete]

Growing pains. It has increased considerably in size from 10AM to 4PM EDT today. That accounts for some of the disorganization as the convection has been spreading out. But the newer, larger size may help it survive the trip over DR and Haiti.

[Aric Dunn]

also between hr 72 to 90 the 500mb vort line up with the 850mb vort... watching the loop leads me to believe that the mid level works back to the surface.

[AtlanticWind]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?mode ... _thick.gif


Surface low

[ozonepete]

More proof that it still has a small closed circulation, perhaps not as strong as earlier today.

CLICK HERE

Thanks! Love that MIMIC. I forgot about it today but it is a really useful tool on a lot of levels...

[tolakram]

Chantal is in range of the rapid scan area of GOES-E. You can see the LLC in the lower part of the picture, just barely covered by clouds.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

[Hurricaneman]

This is depicting a really badly sheared system, surface low over Florida while the other level lows are 200 miles to the east

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[SouthFloridawx]

Are you guys buying the strength of the Trough and subsequent Cut-off low left behind it?

[ozonepete]

Usually that is not a good sign wrt to intensification, is it not?

It depends. If the outflow boundary and all of the area behind it quickly erupts with deep convection (as has been happening with Chantal today) then it doesn't mean anything. It's when outflow boundaries get produced and no new convection fires up near them that one should suspect dry air is winning out.

[Aric Dunn]

This is depicting a really badly sheared system, surface low over Florida while the other level lows are 200 miles to the east

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

hard to tell there appears to be a bit of an anticyclone over it

[Evil Jeremy]

Usually that is not a good sign wrt to intensification, is it not?

It depends. If the outflow boundary and all of the area behind it quickly erupts with deep convection (as has been happening with Chantal today) then it doesn't mean anything. It's when outflow boundaries get produced and no new convection fires up near them that one should suspect dry air is winning out.

Pete, what's your take on today's model flip flops?