ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Tireman4]

where are all my NAVGEM fans!!!

18Z NAVGEM---GOM into Galveston...time to board up..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Finally a model that makes sense. Goodness, I have been waiting for this to clear it all up. Look how sparkly the colors are too!!!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

center should be right about 15n 64w in that area.

I'd put it slight northeast of that based on visible loops. But that's just me.

[jlauderdal]

Usually that is not a good sign wrt to intensification, is it not?

You are welcome. As far as track, trust the NHC on track, because they use model consensus with added human insight, and the models are really good at track now. I rarely ever question track anymore; you wind up the loser. Intensity is still everyone's game, but you will rarely ever outguess NHC on track. This is going right over DR/Haiti.[/quote][/quote]

lets be clear, they are really good inside 72 hours after that the error really kicks in...intensity still is somewhat a mystery according to nhc

[ROCK]

where are all my NAVGEM fans!!!

18Z NAVGEM---GOM into Galveston...time to board up..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Finally a model that makes sense. Goodness, I have been waiting for this to clear it all up. Look how sparkly the colors are too!!!

[ozonepete]

Usually that is not a good sign wrt to intensification, is it not?

You are welcome. As far as track, trust the NHC on track, because they use model consensus with added human insight, and the models are really good at track now. I rarely ever question track anymore; you wind up the loser. Intensity is still everyone's game, but you will rarely ever outguess NHC on track. This is going right over DR/Haiti.

[/quote]

lets be clear, they are really good inside 72 hours after that the error really kicks in...intensity still is somewhat a mystery according to nhc[/quote]

Yes, but after 72 hours their errors are still smaller than most second-guessers like me. And the NHC always warns when they don't have much confidence that far out. That is very important because it reminds us to keep watching for adjustments.

[meriland23]

Isn't it completely destined to die once it hits that shear?

[northjaxpro]

The next couple of days will tell the tale. We will know in the next 48 hours if the land interaction with Hispaniola will either destroy Chantal, or will this cyclone continually befuddle us and stay intact?

If she beats the odds and survives Hispaniola, many of us, myself included, on the Florida East Coast north to Savannah/Charleston potentially will be really anxious going into this upcoming weekend.

[Evil Jeremy]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 092326
AF306 0303A CHANTAL HDOB 05 20130709
231800 1644N 06338W 8430 01626 0174 +155 +124 133042 043 032 000 00
231830 1643N 06338W 8433 01625 0173 +160 +120 131043 044 031 000 00
231900 1642N 06339W 8428 01630 0169 +163 +121 130045 045 031 000 00
231930 1640N 06340W 8431 01625 0169 +165 +122 129045 046 031 001 00
232000 1639N 06341W 8433 01623 0170 +161 +123 130043 045 031 000 00
232030 1638N 06342W 8430 01627 0167 +166 +121 129047 048 027 000 00
232100 1637N 06343W 8429 01628 0168 +163 +119 128046 049 029 000 00
232130 1635N 06345W 8432 01626 0169 +164 +108 128044 044 029 000 00
232200 1634N 06346W 8430 01629 0169 +161 +109 128043 044 029 000 00
232230 1633N 06347W 8429 01626 0169 +160 +118 129043 043 030 000 00
232300 1631N 06348W 8430 01623 0168 +159 +130 132042 044 030 000 00
232330 1630N 06349W 8425 01627 0167 +159 +137 132041 041 026 000 00
232400 1629N 06350W 8429 01623 0164 +164 +131 134043 044 029 000 00
232430 1628N 06351W 8430 01623 0163 +165 +134 135045 045 031 000 00
232500 1627N 06352W 8429 01626 0162 +166 +130 138044 045 030 000 00
232530 1625N 06353W 8429 01624 0160 +168 +123 138043 044 030 000 00
232600 1624N 06354W 8430 01623 0159 +173 +102 140043 043 030 000 00
232630 1623N 06355W 8428 01625 0160 +171 +098 140044 044 030 000 00
232700 1622N 06356W 8431 01620 0161 +169 +102 138044 044 030 001 00
232730 1620N 06357W 8429 01622 0162 +165 +115 137043 043 030 001 00
$$
;

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 092326
97779 23204 30166 63700 15300 13044 1515/ /2557
RMK AF306 0303A CHANTAL OB 01
SWS = 28 KTS
NE INBOUND
;

[Stormlover2012]

Navgem babyyy that's what I'm talking about!!! Lol

[Evil Jeremy]

Isn't it completely destined to die once it hits that shear?

Not completely, no.

[TheStormExpert]

So it's ok if I let my guard down here in Miami?

Several of the models have it going over Miami or just to the east. Even a handful of GFS Ensembles go over Miami. I know this all could and will change so don't let your guard down.

[ROCK]

Isn't it completely destined to die once it hits that shear?

no but shear + mountains will do the trick...

[SapphireSea]

you all know that the NAVGEM is not that far fetch as it may seem. A disrupted system would trend more west with the low level flow than feel a weakness from the trof as would a deeper system.....just saying....

NAVGEM is out to lunch on this one. Shows the vort that's already near the FL. Keys heading NW quickly which doesn't seem like it will verify. Also, I was looking at the trough that develops and it seems to develop (steering collapse) then become pretty deep layered (northward movement) then be replaced with a new ridge (NW/WNW movement). NAVGEM also sees the trough at the mid levels and doesn't see a complete decouple over the mountains now which is suspect.

[Evil Jeremy]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 092337
AF306 0303A CHANTAL HDOB 06 20130709
232800 1619N 06358W 8432 01620 0160 +170 +114 138042 043 033 000 00
232830 1618N 06359W 8428 01623 0159 +170 +119 141041 042 033 000 00
232900 1617N 06400W 8429 01621 0159 +169 +119 138042 042 034 000 00
232930 1616N 06401W 8429 01621 0157 +169 +121 136042 042 034 000 00
233000 1614N 06402W 8430 01619 0158 +166 +122 137041 041 033 000 00
233030 1613N 06403W 8430 01618 0160 +165 +126 135040 040 033 000 00
233100 1612N 06404W 8430 01618 0160 +165 +125 137041 042 034 000 00
233130 1611N 06405W 8429 01618 0158 +160 +131 136040 041 035 000 00
233200 1609N 06406W 8430 01617 0160 +160 +135 136039 040 034 000 00
233230 1608N 06407W 8429 01619 0159 +164 +127 135039 039 035 000 00
233300 1607N 06408W 8433 01617 0155 +168 +124 134040 041 036 000 00
233330 1606N 06409W 8425 01622 0154 +167 +126 134042 042 036 000 00
233400 1604N 06410W 8433 01612 0153 +165 +132 135041 042 036 000 00
233430 1603N 06411W 8426 01619 0153 +168 +126 132041 041 036 000 00
233500 1602N 06412W 8430 01614 0153 +164 +131 130041 041 036 000 00
233530 1601N 06414W 8432 01611 0154 +162 +128 134039 041 035 000 00
233600 1559N 06415W 8432 01614 0154 +160 +126 136040 040 037 000 03
233630 1558N 06416W 8429 01613 0154 +159 +135 133040 040 037 000 00
233700 1557N 06417W 8430 01610 0153 +159 +135 133041 041 038 000 00
233730 1556N 06418W 8429 01610 0153 +155 +149 133040 041 037 001 03
$$
;

[Stormlover2012]

Navgem is just as realistic as all the other model runs, I mean no model has been consistent, even though this model isn't that good but u can't say it doesn't make since because it does.

[SapphireSea]

Navgem is just as realistic as all the other model runs, I mean no model has been consistent, even though this model isn't that good but u can't say it doesn't make since because it does.

Initial is initialized the ULL near FL incorrectly, then to present 0-4 hours sent it in the opposite direction it is going to presently. Shows not a deep layer trough, but shows one and still sends a not completely decoupled storm WNW through the straits. I admit it made sense before, this does not make much sense this time around. IMO.

[Tireman4]

you all know that the NAVGEM is not that far fetch as it may seem. A disrupted system would trend more west with the low level flow than feel a weakness from the trof as would a deeper system.....just saying....

NAVGEM is out to lunch on this one. Shows the vort that's already near the FL. Keys heading NW quickly which doesn't seem like it will verify. Also, I was looking at the trough that develops and it seems to develop (steering collapse) then become pretty deep layered (northward movement) then be replaced with a new ridge (NW/WNW movement). NAVGEM also sees the trough at the mid levels and doesn't see a complete decouple over the mountains now which is suspect.

Ya never know. I think it is good to look at all models, crazy as they may seem. I am not -removed- by any stretch of the imagination. I do not want any part of it. I have been through too many storms. It is very odd that our college and each department was going over our storm preparations today. Humm...

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