ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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#2321 Postby Dave » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:06 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 281904
AF301 0104A DORIAN HDOB 19 20130728
185500 1921N 06205W 9772 00332 0147 +235 +224 058000 001 017 001 00
185530 1920N 06207W 9772 00331 0147 +236 +223 042001 002 017 001 03
185600 1920N 06208W 9771 00333 0147 +235 +224 020002 002 017 000 00
185630 1919N 06210W 9767 00335 0147 +238 +220 046002 002 017 000 03
185700 1918N 06212W 9772 00331 0147 +234 +224 053001 002 019 001 00
185730 1918N 06214W 9771 00333 0147 +236 +223 050004 004 018 001 00
185800 1917N 06215W 9769 00335 0148 +235 +222 041004 005 017 000 03
185830 1916N 06217W 9770 00334 0148 +235 +223 045005 006 017 000 00
185900 1916N 06219W 9770 00333 0149 +235 +225 032004 005 017 000 00
185930 1915N 06221W 9769 00335 0149 +235 +225 025005 005 017 000 03
190000 1914N 06223W 9769 00335 0149 +235 +224 022005 006 017 001 03
190030 1914N 06225W 9769 00335 0149 +233 +227 018005 005 017 000 00
190100 1913N 06226W 9771 00335 0150 +232 +227 024005 006 019 000 03
190130 1912N 06228W 9768 00337 0150 +235 +223 034006 007 017 000 00
190200 1912N 06230W 9771 00334 0150 +235 +221 032008 009 017 000 00
190230 1911N 06232W 9771 00334 0149 +235 +221 031008 008 016 000 00
190300 1910N 06234W 9771 00333 0149 +235 +224 029008 008 015 001 03
190330 1909N 06235W 9770 00335 0149 +235 +224 027008 009 017 000 03
190400 1909N 06237W 9771 00333 0149 +234 +225 027008 008 015 001 03
190430 1908N 06239W 9771 00334 0149 +235 +223 027008 008 017 000 03
$$
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hurricanekid416
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#2322 Postby hurricanekid416 » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:08 pm

Is there any evidence of a LLC yet
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#2323 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:10 pm

SHIPS really drops the shear in the Bahamas:

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
SHEAR (KT) 14 16 19 16 14 14 9 15 9 8 9 7 9
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Re:

#2324 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:10 pm

hurricanekid416 wrote:Is there any evidence of a LLC yet



No LLC so far as recon has not found west winds.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2325 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:12 pm

Blown Away wrote:Image
General idea of the areas in question??


I agree. It seems they are way further west than what the satellite presentation would show as far as location of a possible center
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2326 Postby SFLcane » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:12 pm

18z models shifted south now into cuba or straits.

Image
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#2327 Postby Dave » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:14 pm

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 19:12Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 09

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Sunday, 19:11Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 19.0N 62.9W
Location: 211 miles (340 km) between the ENE and E (79°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 310 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 21°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 20°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Overcast / Undercast
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1015 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind Direction: Bearing was unavailable.
Estimated Surface Wind Speed: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 11 knots (~ 12.7mph)
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Re:

#2328 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:14 pm

hurricanekid416 wrote:Is there any evidence of a LLC yet


Not yet. Recon is in there right now trying to see if one is forming or is there.
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#2329 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:14 pm

Image
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#2330 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:15 pm

Latest SSD floater frame is in. Convection blob growing (dark brown/orange circular area at center of blob)

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2331 Postby chaser1 » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:15 pm

Those recon plots lend me to believe that some surface low pressure reflection co-located with the MLC does exist and simply need consolidate further before any change of designation will occur. Seems to still have a couple of competing surface vorticities competing for inflow. Vigorous burst in a relatively small system would work that out potentially in a matter of hours. Any slowing of forward speed would certainly aid the process.
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#2332 Postby Dave » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:16 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 281914
AF301 0104A DORIAN HDOB 20 20130728
190500 1907N 06241W 9770 00335 0149 +235 +223 026008 008 016 000 00
190530 1907N 06243W 9770 00334 0149 +235 +223 038007 008 018 000 03
190600 1906N 06244W 9770 00334 0149 +235 +225 041008 008 019 000 03
190630 1905N 06246W 9771 00333 0149 +235 +224 042008 008 018 000 03
190700 1905N 06248W 9772 00333 0149 +235 +223 038008 009 019 000 03
190730 1904N 06250W 9771 00334 0150 +235 +224 035008 008 018 000 03
190800 1903N 06252W 9770 00335 0150 +235 +224 032007 008 018 001 00
190830 1902N 06254W 9772 00334 0151 +235 +223 027006 006 017 000 03
190900 1902N 06255W 9771 00335 0151 +235 +219 023005 006 018 000 00
190930 1901N 06257W 9769 00335 0149 +235 +217 026004 006 016 000 03
191000 1859N 06258W 9768 00336 0149 +236 +212 010002 004 /// /// 03
191030 1859N 06256W 9769 00334 0149 +240 +203 113003 004 /// /// 03
191100 1900N 06255W 9778 00327 0150 +235 +215 142003 004 013 001 00
191130 1900N 06253W 9769 00336 0150 +235 +220 182002 002 015 000 03
191200 1900N 06251W 9772 00333 0150 +235 +224 179002 003 016 000 03
191230 1900N 06249W 9772 00333 0150 +235 +226 173002 002 018 001 00
191300 1900N 06247W 9771 00334 0149 +234 +228 161001 002 017 001 03
191330 1900N 06245W 9770 00334 0149 +235 +221 146003 004 017 000 03
191400 1900N 06243W 9770 00333 0149 +235 +222 144003 004 017 001 03
191430 1900N 06241W 9770 00334 0149 +235 +222 152003 004 017 001 03
$$
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Re:

#2333 Postby Canelaw99 » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:18 pm

gatorcane wrote:Latest SSD floater frame is in. Convection blob growing (dark brown/orange circular area at center of blob)

Image


Sure hope recon investigates that while they're out there....
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#2334 Postby AEWspotter » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:22 pm

It certainly looks like something is spinning up at 20.5N, 60.5W...
Last edited by AEWspotter on Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2335 Postby alan1961 » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:22 pm

Dorian's name back up on the floater,
Any significance with that?
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Re:

#2336 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:23 pm

AEWspotter wrote:It certainly looks like something is spinning up at 10.5N, 60.5W...


Think you mean 20.5N right?
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Re: Re:

#2337 Postby AEWspotter » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:24 pm

gatorcane wrote:
AEWspotter wrote:It certainly looks like something is spinning up at 10.5N, 60.5W...


Think you mean 20.5N right?


Yeah made the correction.
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Re:

#2338 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:25 pm

AEWspotter wrote:It certainly looks like something is spinning up at 20.5N, 60.5W...



That is what I saw and posted a page or so ago.
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#2339 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:25 pm

Image
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#2340 Postby Dave » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:25 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 281924
AF301 0104A DORIAN HDOB 21 20130728
191500 1900N 06239W 9771 00334 0149 +235 +222 152005 005 017 000 00
191530 1900N 06238W 9770 00335 0149 +235 +223 167006 006 017 000 03
191600 1900N 06236W 9770 00334 0150 +235 +217 174006 006 018 000 03
191630 1900N 06234W 9770 00334 0150 +235 +214 176004 006 018 000 03
191700 1900N 06232W 9769 00336 0151 +235 +215 176004 004 016 000 00
191730 1900N 06230W 9770 00335 0151 +235 +219 180003 004 014 000 00
191800 1900N 06228W 9773 00333 0150 +235 +218 193004 006 014 001 00
191830 1900N 06226W 9770 00335 0150 +235 +223 195007 007 016 001 00
191900 1900N 06224W 9773 00333 0150 +235 +226 192006 006 013 001 00
191930 1900N 06222W 9772 00333 0150 +235 +226 185005 006 016 000 03
192000 1900N 06220W 9769 00336 0150 +235 +225 192005 006 015 001 03
192030 1900N 06219W 9770 00334 0150 +235 +226 193006 007 017 000 00
192100 1900N 06217W 9773 00332 0150 +235 +226 188008 008 019 001 00
192130 1900N 06215W 9770 00334 0149 +235 +224 189009 009 017 001 03
192200 1900N 06213W 9771 00334 0149 +235 +224 193009 009 018 000 00
192230 1900N 06211W 9773 00333 0149 +235 +223 197009 010 018 000 03
192300 1900N 06209W 9770 00334 0149 +235 +224 199009 010 018 000 00
192330 1900N 06207W 9770 00334 0149 +235 +224 195010 010 018 000 03
192400 1900N 06205W 9769 00335 0149 +235 +223 195010 011 018 000 00
192430 1900N 06203W 9770 00335 0150 +235 +222 196010 011 016 001 00
$$
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