ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

As has been stated before, Levi Cowen is NOT yet a met. Not sure why some here treat him as if he has a PhD in tropical meteorology

[Dean4Storms]

I think it will have a shot at reforming once in the southern Bahamas to SE Gulf of Mexico.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 282044
AF301 0104A DORIAN HDOB 29 20130728
203500 1833N 06342W 9770 00334 0149 +240 +222 044004 005 013 000 03
203530 1831N 06343W 9770 00335 0150 +240 +220 048004 005 012 001 03
203600 1830N 06345W 9769 00335 0150 +240 +217 065005 005 016 000 00
203630 1829N 06346W 9770 00335 0150 +240 +217 058006 006 014 000 03
203700 1828N 06348W 9771 00335 0150 +240 +216 058007 007 019 000 00
203730 1827N 06349W 9770 00335 0151 +240 +219 060006 007 018 000 00
203800 1825N 06351W 9771 00336 0151 +240 +218 052007 008 016 000 00
203830 1824N 06352W 9770 00336 0151 +240 +219 046007 008 016 000 03
203900 1823N 06354W 9768 00338 0151 +240 +220 046008 008 017 001 00
203930 1822N 06355W 9769 00337 0150 +240 +218 046008 008 017 001 00
204000 1822N 06355W 9769 00337 0151 +240 +221 052008 009 016 000 03
204030 1819N 06359W 9770 00336 0151 +240 +219 051007 008 017 001 03
204100 1818N 06400W 9768 00337 0151 +240 +219 045008 009 019 000 00
204130 1817N 06401W 9771 00334 0151 +240 +221 048008 009 018 000 03
204200 1816N 06403W 9771 00335 0151 +240 +219 052007 008 016 000 03
204230 1814N 06405W 9770 00337 0151 +240 +221 047006 007 018 001 03
204300 1813N 06406W 9770 00337 0151 +240 +222 046008 008 017 001 00
204330 1812N 06407W 9804 00304 0151 +244 +218 041008 008 016 000 03
204400 1811N 06409W 9793 00315 0150 +244 +217 042008 008 017 001 00
204430 1810N 06410W 9795 00313 0150 +244 +219 040007 007 017 000 03
$$
;

[ninel conde]

How can one say environmental conditions are favorable when we have this severe decoupling of the LLC and MLC?

grading on the curve? it has a long way to go, but at least it looks better than yesterday afternoon.

[chaser1]

Tweet by Tropical Tidbits Levi Cowan:
He thinks GAME OVER, may be a little too soon to call that?

Hmmm, interesting assessment. He makes a good point, though my thoughts were "game has'nt quite started".

[TheStormExpert]

Latest Waver Vapor Image:

[TheStormExpert]

The LLC appears to be stationary, and drifting waiting for the MLC to catch up. I'd say this has a decent chance and that this system has been downplayed from the very beginning.

The overall look of this system still looks too impressive to write it off just yet.

[Dave]

When the NHC says the "game is over" then Storm2K will follow suit. Until that happens it's still on. What Levi Cowan says or does is his own thoughts but does not represent Storm2K in any way, shape, or form.

What is over is this...

000
URNT11 KNHC 282046
97779 20394 10184 63900 03000 99005 24243 /0015
49905
RMK AF301 0104A DORIAN OB 11
LAST REPORT
;

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 282046
97779 20394 10184 63900 03000 99005 24243 /0015
49905
RMK AF301 0104A DORIAN OB 11
LAST REPORT
;

Mission Over.

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 282046
97779 20394 10184 63900 03000 99005 24243 /0015
49905
RMK AF301 0104A DORIAN OB 11
LAST REPORT
;

Mission over...

[artist]

[artist]

thanks Dave, hope you have a good evening!

[TheStormExpert]

Latest Shear Tendency Map:
Looks to be getting ready to enter the region of higher shear.

[Dean4Storms]

Still strange that Recon didn't fly out to the MLC area, Convection is re-firing.

[ddad040]

Why did the floater change from 91l to Dorian again with no vdm?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

[Dave]

thanks Dave, hope you have a good evening!

I'll try..same back at you. Thanks for helping!

[cycloneye]

The next mission departs tonight at 10:30 PM EDT.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 29/0530Z
B. AFXXX 0204A DORIAN
C. 29/0230Z
D. 20.4N 65.0W
E. 29/0300Z TO 29/0700Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[chaser1]

When the NHC says the "game is over" then Storm2K will follow suit. Until that happens it's still on. What Levi Cowan says or does is his own thoughts but does not represent Storm2K in any way, shape, or form

No, of course not...... no less and no more than when Bastardi's comments or tweets are referenced here (or anyone else's on this board for that matter). They too do not represent any opinion but their own. That said, I really enjoy Levi's insights and thinks he has a great video delivery. Furthermore, I respect anyone willing to take a stance just as much as I would for someone to stand up and say..."oops, I was wrong". Just like others here, I also thought that was a bit dramatic & "quick to call". Time will tell.

I for one was positive that Dorian was "dead" a couple nights ago. Maybe I (and many others) were right....."THEN" LOL; Right now though, I wouldn't be calling Dorian dead - not with it's overall appearance and conceivably improving conditions.

[Blown Away]

18z...Hello EGOM...Looks like they used 62.8W to initalize

18z...Some Cat 1/2

[SapphireSea]

Numerical show impressive deepening and dynamical shows nothing but weakening. That decreases confidence on regeneration now. Still need to see what they show tonight on 00z runs.