ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[artist]

[chaser1]

All in all.....watching the ups and downs of potential tropical systems' model data & satellite features, is like watching tennis.... for many many hours LOL. Gonna give my brain a break and see what this all looks like later

[SapphireSea]

Needs to keep putting up convection. It's waning with too few new tops. Shear maps show that it is getting pummeled by W-SW shear now. At least 15kt worth. Keep an eye out for outflows from the new tops.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

91L has a beautiful upper-level environment w/ a well-defined anticyclone. It's no wonder its outflow looks so nice.

[cycloneye]

91L has a beautiful upper-level environment w/ a well-defined anticyclone. It's no wonder its outflow looks so nice.

At least it looks better than Saturday at this time of day when almost there were no clouds.

[Portastorm]

When the NHC says the "game is over" then Storm2K will follow suit. Until that happens it's still on. What Levi Cowan says or does is his own thoughts but does not represent Storm2K in any way, shape, or form

No, of course not...... no less and no more than when Bastardi's comments or tweets are referenced here (or anyone else's on this board for that matter). They too do not represent any opinion but their own. That said, I really enjoy Levi's insights and thinks he has a great video delivery. Furthermore, I respect anyone willing to take a stance just as much as I would for someone to stand up and say..."oops, I was wrong". Just like others here, I also thought that was a bit dramatic & "quick to call". Time will tell.

I for one was positive that Dorian was "dead" a couple nights ago. Maybe I (and many others) were right....."THEN" LOL; Right now though, I wouldn't be calling Dorian dead - not with it's overall appearance and conceivably improving conditions.

Actually, I'm going to respectfully disagree with you here. There's a big difference between a Levi Cowan and a Joe Bastardi. One is a degreed professional meteorologist and one is not. I understand Mr. Cowan has a growing number of "fans" and even I myself enjoy his videos and insights. That being said, he's not a pro met. Not yet at least. And even if Bastardi said "game over" we wouldn't care here until the official folks, the NHC, makes that call.

[AtlanticWind]

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 1h
@weatheradvance Not writing off completely, but we don't and won't have a tropical cyclone today. Would be nice if recon looked farther east

[Steve H.]

Yeah, I wouldn't say lights out on this invest yet, particularly looking at the last few visible frames. But it is still a very fragile "circulation." It seems to be "in vogue" to down play systems in this forum, but unfortunately I feel if this regenerates into a TS it will move into an increasingly favorable environment. Hopefully, this will not occur.

[Blown Away]

I guess I see a broad weak area spinning where the NHC says 91L is, but sure does look suspicious a little to the east...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[bahamaswx]

We'll see if he follows suit and refires deep convection within a few hours as he's done the last two nights in a row. Third time's a charm?

[tailgater]

Dorian is like a tadpole that can't lose it's tail

[baytownwx]

Looks a little better than he did 24 hours ago. Let's see if D-max can get him better organized
Exactly 24 hours ago:


Current:

[cycloneye]

Looks a little better than he did 24 hours ago. Let's see if D-max can get him better organized
Exactly 24 hours ago:
http://i.imgur.com/Y7gbnuh.jpg

Current:
http://i.imgur.com/DDiCQXK.jpg

It looks like it is not moving as fast as before.

[tolakram]

Live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

IR: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Latest

[tolakram]

I think the bottom line is these days, unlike 10 or more years ago, there will rarely be surprises when the majority of well performing models don't show much of anything. It's not a 0% chance, but pretty low.

[jlauderdal]

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 1h
@weatheradvance Not writing off completely, but we don't and won't have a tropical cyclone today. Would be nice if recon looked farther east

How about a Levi cowan tweet thread where tweets are stickied and arguments ensue

Sent Using Tapatalk2

[Ivanhater]

still looking good

[funster]

still looking good

I agree. Some new convection still popping up http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[gatorcane]

Yeah so the MLC at 20.5N, 60.5W is still looking good. It's a shame RECON didn't fly out there. Maybe it is because early this morning that area didn't look good and they already had a plan to investigate the area at 62W before they flew out. My guess is that the area they investigated is in the process of dissipating, if not has dissipated already.

New convection is popping over that area and is sure looks like an LLC is forming there:

[SFLcane]

ZoomRadar twitter..
Some news... NHC is relocating the center of Dorian ENE of where the current fix is. As of the last fix from NHC the plane flew on only the west side of the system and thus the surface center was placed there. But there is the realization that another center is likely ENE of there. It will need to be investigated by microwave data this evening and the next hurricane hunter flight. - Jeff Berardelli