ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[artist]

notice all the members are all now turning west again .. pretty much back the solutions from the past 3 days.. darn good consistency for me.. throw out the 12z today

yeah, seems it was bad garbage in some where, doesn't it?

[artist]

Hi Aric and co, Guadeloupe has back off the orange alert due to Chantal, and now is on yellow alert. Things have calm down and weather continues to improve . Residuals moderate showers and occasionnal line of showers could spread erracticly tonight and tommorow. Important fact, no report of death or damages in the butterfly island.
Recap of the day:

Here are some observations from our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe today when Chantal came closer to us :

Rainfall: 10 to 50 millimeters of water have fallen in 12 hours on Basse-Terre. The eastern part of the island has been really spared, except for the locality of Anse-Bertrand ( 6 millimeters during the last 24h).
Between 4AM and 4PM, Meteo-France reported 20 to 40 mm of rain at Marie-Galante, les Saintes, La Grande-Vigie and on Basse-Terre.


Winds: Between 12AM and 1PM, gusts reached speeds nearing 100 km/hour at Marie-Galante and la Désirade.

For info in the Northern Leewards and given Meteo-France, average winds reached 35 to 45 km/h from an east direction. Gusts have reached values between 54 to 72 km/h.


Sea: No report from Meteo-France Guadeloupe for Guadeloupe... while in Martinica, Meteo-France Martinica reported averaged waves nearing 4meters30, with a maxima reaching 6m90 :eek: during mid-day at Basse-Pointe ( Martinica).


As a conclusion, Chantal was pretty kind and compassionate in Guadeloupe... but much more furious in Martinica, bringing numerous damages in the South of the island ( trees down, roofs damaged, impressive power outages, 5000 citizens without power, canceled and delayed fligths).
The season is long and continue with maybe another episodes in store?! Time will tell.
Thanks for all, the support, ( Cycloneye, Artist, Aric, Msbee, etc.) the nice anaysis of all the members (Aric, Ozonepete, etc).
Carib islanders are glad and appreciate the professionnalism of many here. Let's hope that our friends of Martinica will step up strong after Chantal.

Regards

Gustywind

good to hear that Gusty, and thanks for keeping us updated today.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100137
AF306 0303A CHANTAL HDOB 18 20130710
012800 1603N 06454W 8429 01628 0165 +167 +123 142046 046 029 000 00
012830 1605N 06454W 8432 01624 0166 +166 +124 140046 048 030 000 00
012900 1607N 06454W 8439 01614 0165 +162 +138 134047 048 032 000 00
012930 1608N 06454W 8427 01630 0166 +165 +124 135048 049 033 000 00
013000 1610N 06454W 8428 01628 0166 +165 +119 134048 049 032 000 00
013030 1612N 06454W 8429 01626 0167 +165 +114 135048 049 033 000 00
013100 1614N 06455W 8431 01625 0168 +167 +111 136047 048 033 000 00
013130 1616N 06455W 8429 01628 0170 +162 +114 134045 047 032 000 00
013200 1618N 06455W 8429 01628 0172 +158 +121 134043 044 033 000 00
013230 1620N 06455W 8424 01632 0173 +158 +119 137045 046 033 000 00
013300 1622N 06455W 8430 01627 0172 +160 +111 138047 047 032 000 00
013330 1624N 06455W 8429 01633 0173 +160 +115 136046 047 032 000 00
013400 1626N 06455W 8430 01627 0171 +162 +113 135047 047 032 000 00
013430 1627N 06455W 8429 01630 0177 +160 +111 134047 048 032 000 03
013500 1629N 06456W 8424 01641 0180 +160 +110 134045 047 /// /// 03
013530 1628N 06458W 8426 01632 0175 +160 +106 135045 045 031 000 00
013600 1627N 06459W 8430 01626 0172 +163 +107 136045 045 032 000 00
013630 1626N 06500W 8433 01622 0168 +165 +111 138044 045 032 000 00
013700 1625N 06501W 8432 01625 0168 +163 +122 137042 043 034 000 00
013730 1624N 06502W 8426 01630 0166 +169 +108 138043 044 034 000 00
$$
;

[brunota2003]

no, but recon is probably thinking Chantal has had a few too many! I would imagine they are frustrated with her lack of giving up the keys to her LLC!

[Dave]

:uarrow: Noooo...I'll probably be asleep soon, and I have things to do!

Cluck cluck cluck...chicken!!

[Blown Away]

Most of the guidance has shifted over Haiti/Windward pass and the NHC track clips the the W end of Haiti and has a sharp right to avoid Cuba. Any slight left shift short term will take her on the path of least resistance between Haiti/Cuba IMO. The forecast track does a good of a job limiting amount of Haiti/Cuba interaction, not sure how that effects Chantal on the other side???

[Gustywind]

Great news from the butterfly island Gusty.

Thanks. If i've more weather observations concerning Martinica i will keep you informed. Cycloneye, what's up en la isla del encanto? You seems in shape so PR too? . Tell us daily the latest in your country.

[ozonepete]

Hi Aric and co, Guadeloupe has back off the orange alert due to Chantal, and now is on yellow alert. Things have calm down and weather continues to improve Carib islanders are glad and appreciate the professionnalism of many here. Let's hope that our friends of Martinica will step up strong after Chantal.

Regards

Gustywind [/b]

Glad to hear it Gusty. Let's hope our friends in Martinique get past this quickly as you said.

[Kingarabian]

I'll run a mission tomorrow. Gotta update everything first.

[Cyclenall]

yeah, hard to see the center...looks to me like the blob is moving west. seems to be a tad south of forecasted points as well. Maybe she'll keep going west and just dissolve. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

There is a higher chance of me meeting Max Mayfield in my living room tonight than that solution verifying. That is it going due west and dissipating.

[artist]

[floridasun78]

Hi Aric and co, Guadeloupe has back off the orange alert due to Chantal, and now is on yellow alert. Things have calm down and weather continues to improve . Residuals moderate showers and occasionnal line of showers could spread erracticly tonight and tommorow. Important fact, no report of death or damages in the butterfly island.
Recap of the day:

Here are some observations from our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe today when Chantal came closer to us :

Rainfall: 10 to 50 millimeters of water have fallen in 12 hours on Basse-Terre. The eastern part of the island has been really spared, except for the locality of Anse-Bertrand ( 6 millimeters during the last 24h).
Between 4AM and 4PM, Meteo-France reported 20 to 40 mm of rain at Marie-Galante, les Saintes, La Grande-Vigie and on Basse-Terre.


Winds: Between 12AM and 1PM, gusts reached speeds nearing 100 km/hour at Marie-Galante and la Désirade.

For info in the Northern Leewards and given Meteo-France, average winds reached 35 to 45 km/h from an east direction. Gusts have reached values between 54 to 72 km/h.


Sea: No report from Meteo-France Guadeloupe for Guadeloupe... while in Martinica, Meteo-France Martinica reported averaged waves nearing 4meters30, with a maxima reaching 6m90 :eek: during mid-day at Basse-Pointe ( Martinica).


As a conclusion, Chantal was pretty kind and compassionate in Guadeloupe... but much more furious in Martinica, bringing numerous damages in the South of the island ( trees down, roofs damaged, impressive power outages, 5000 citizens without power, canceled and delayed fligths).
The season is long and continue with maybe another episodes in store?! Time will tell.
Thanks for all, the support, ( Cycloneye, Artist, Aric, Msbee, etc.) the nice anaysis of all the members (Aric, Ozonepete, etc).
Carib islanders are glad and appreciate the professionnalism of many here. Let's hope that our friends of Martinica will step up strong after Chantal.

Regards

Gustywind

ty for report

[Gustywind]

Hi Aric and co, Guadeloupe has back off the orange alert due to Chantal, and now is on yellow alert. Things have calm down and weather continues to improve Carib islanders are glad and appreciate the professionnalism of many here. Let's hope that our friends of Martinica will step up strong after Chantal.

Regards

Gustywind [/b]

Glad to hear it Gusty. Let's hope our friends in Martinique get past this quickly as you said.

Yeah, thanks . I will give you the latest as possible.

[ozonepete]

So now she's moving due W or is she still moving wnw?

officially WNW

yeah, hard to see the center...looks to me like the blob is moving west. seems to be a tad south of forecasted points as well. Maybe she'll keep going west and just dissolve. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

>> The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products <<

Here's why it'll stick to the NHC track. Watch the rgb or IR loops (or even vis) and watch the low to mid-level cloud movement and you can see it's being tugged fast to the west while at the same time more slowly to the northwest. The compromise solution to that, which is what the models are seeing, is a slowing track to the west northwest right over DR. It's the fast tug to the west that's fooling the eye into thinking it has turned westward.

[artist]

................


thanks King, good to see ya!

[Annie Oakley]

so is surface center here? Time: 00:44:00Z Coordinates: 15.9N 65.8667W?

They're not done examining it yet. We'll have to wait...

lol..now you sound like said doctor........waiting for pronou..........(you know)

[brunota2003]

yeah, hard to see the center...looks to me like the blob is moving west. seems to be a tad south of forecasted points as well. Maybe she'll keep going west and just dissolve. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

There is a higher chance of me meeting Max Mayfield in my living room tonight than that solution verifying. That is it going due west and dissipating.

You might want to put some coffee or tea on, recon has yet to find a closed circulation. Not saying that means anything, but.

[cycloneye]

Great news from the butterfly island Gusty.

Thanks. If i've more weather observations concerning Martinica i will keep you informed. Cycloneye, what's up en la isla del encanto? You seems in shape so PR too? . Tell us daily the latest in your country.

Here a few bands are moving thru the island but as Chantal is moving more west,we wont get a big rain event as it was expected so good news from "La Isla del Encanto".

[Gustywind]

Hi Aric and co, Guadeloupe has back off the orange alert due to Chantal, and now is on yellow alert. Things have calm down and weather continues to improve . Residuals moderate showers and occasionnal line of showers could spread erracticly tonight and tommorow. Important fact, no report of death or damages in the butterfly island.
Recap of the day:

Here are some observations from our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe today when Chantal came closer to us :

Rainfall: 10 to 50 millimeters of water have fallen in 12 hours on Basse-Terre. The eastern part of the island has been really spared, except for the locality of Anse-Bertrand ( 6 millimeters during the last 24h).
Between 4AM and 4PM, Meteo-France reported 20 to 40 mm of rain at Marie-Galante, les Saintes, La Grande-Vigie and on Basse-Terre.


Winds: Between 12AM and 1PM, gusts reached speeds nearing 100 km/hour at Marie-Galante and la Désirade.

For info in the Northern Leewards and given Meteo-France, average winds reached 35 to 45 km/h from an east direction. Gusts have reached values between 54 to 72 km/h.

Be welcomed . Storm2k is a fantastic family who bring the best at anytime.
Sea: No report from Meteo-France Guadeloupe for Guadeloupe... while in Martinica, Meteo-France Martinica reported averaged waves nearing 4meters30, with a maxima reaching 6m90 :eek: during mid-day at Basse-Pointe ( Martinica).


As a conclusion, Chantal was pretty kind and compassionate in Guadeloupe... but much more furious in Martinica, bringing numerous damages in the South of the island ( trees down, roofs damaged, impressive power outages, 5000 citizens without power, canceled and delayed fligths).
The season is long and continue with maybe another episodes in store?! Time will tell.
Thanks for all, the support, ( Cycloneye, Artist, Aric, Msbee, etc.) the nice anaysis of all the members (Aric, Ozonepete, etc).
Carib islanders are glad and appreciate the professionnalism of many here. Let's hope that our friends of Martinica will step up strong after Chantal.

Regards

Gustywind

ty for report

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 100140
97779 01354 40165 65000 15200 14045 1515/ /2559
RMK AF306 0303A CHANTAL OB 06
SWS = 31 KTS
NE INBOUND
;