ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100147
AF306 0303A CHANTAL HDOB 19 20130710
013800 1623N 06503W 8424 01635 0167 +168 +109 136042 045 035 000 00
013830 1622N 06504W 8430 01625 0166 +172 +107 136041 041 034 000 00
013900 1620N 06506W 8430 01628 0167 +170 +110 137042 042 035 000 03
013930 1619N 06507W 8422 01634 0166 +170 +116 138044 045 033 000 00
014000 1618N 06508W 8428 01630 0166 +168 +116 138046 047 032 000 00
014030 1617N 06509W 8429 01627 0165 +166 +122 137047 048 030 000 00
014100 1616N 06510W 8431 01624 0163 +169 +122 138050 050 030 000 00
014130 1615N 06511W 8428 01627 0164 +168 +126 134048 049 030 000 00
014200 1614N 06513W 8431 01624 0163 +165 +132 134046 047 031 000 00
014230 1613N 06514W 8426 01626 0164 +165 +135 133043 045 031 000 00
014300 1612N 06515W 8431 01622 0164 +165 +139 133047 048 032 000 00
014330 1610N 06516W 8426 01625 0163 +164 +141 131048 049 033 000 00
014400 1609N 06517W 8424 01630 0163 +164 +136 129049 050 033 000 00
014430 1608N 06519W 8430 01623 0163 +165 +131 129045 048 033 000 00
014500 1607N 06520W 8428 01623 0160 +165 +140 130039 043 032 000 00
014530 1606N 06521W 8434 01619 0159 +167 +138 134041 041 032 000 00
014600 1605N 06522W 8424 01627 0159 +165 +138 133040 041 033 000 00
014630 1604N 06523W 8432 01618 0157 +165 +148 135039 040 034 000 00
014700 1602N 06524W 8429 01620 0156 +167 +150 141038 039 034 000 00
014730 1601N 06526W 8425 01622 0157 +165 +150 140042 043 034 000 00
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

So if Recon can't close the circulation, does the NHC drop Chantal?

[Dave]

Sounds good King...we've got a good chance of severe weather in my area tomorrow, not sure on the timing yet but looked like afternoon which will pull me off this and onto local wx if it develops.

[stormhunter7]

pretty confident there is west and south wind... on the southern half of the coc. Recon should be heading that way now, for NE to SW pass.. there inbound on coc now.

[Aric Dunn]

she has definitely weakened some.. since all the deep convection from earlier collapsed. hopefully they sample the south side.. not sure why they keep avoiding it.. lol

[brunota2003]

So if Recon can't close the circulation, does the NHC drop Chantal?

I would think they could go two ways. One is to drop it completely...the other is to keep it going for a couple of cycles, let recon keep sampling it (this flight and the next flight), and then drop it if there is still nothing.

[Gustywind]

Great news from the butterfly island Gusty.

Thanks. If i've more weather observations concerning Martinica i will keep you informed. Cycloneye, what's up en la isla del encanto? You seems in shape so PR too? . Tell us daily the latest in your country.

Here a few bands are moving thru the island but as Chantal is moving more west,we wont get a big rain event as it was expected so good news from "La Isla del Encanto".

Yuppi!! just some rain but nothing too bad

Looks like Chantal were a "warmup mode", but more is to come as twaves continues to pop in our east. We will see. Let's hope that the other carib friends in the Greater Antilles will be spare by Chantal....

[fci]

yeah, hard to see the center...looks to me like the blob is moving west. seems to be a tad south of forecasted points as well. Maybe she'll keep going west and just dissolve. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

There is a higher chance of me meeting Max Mayfield in my living room tonight than that solution verifying. That is it going due west and dissipating.

You might want to put some coffee or tea on, recon has yet to find a closed circulation. Not saying that means anything, but.

Good news is it would be a very informative meet and greet.
Take pictures!!! LOLO

[gatorcane]

yeah, hard to see the center...looks to me like the blob is moving west. seems to be a tad south of forecasted points as well. Maybe she'll keep going west and just dissolve. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

There is a higher chance of me meeting Max Mayfield in my living room tonight than that solution verifying. That is it going due west and dissipating.

You might want to put some coffee or tea on, recon has yet to find a closed circulation. Not saying that means anything, but.

Well this is not a surprise. Chantal has been on a disorganizing trend all day. Convection really has waned and strong westerly shear and mountainous terrain awaits to greet her in the near future.

Though there has been a recent blowup of convection I noticed, so let's see if that can sustain... clearly she is struggling....

Still can expect alot of rain for Hispaniola (which we know can create a dangerous situation there even when strong tropical waves move through) with some gusty winds so not downplaying that at all...

[artist]

[ozonepete]

Though there has been a recent blowup of convection so let's see if that can sustain... clearly she is struggling....

Been struggling since it started, lol... And the mountains of DR and Haiti await.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100157
AF306 0303A CHANTAL HDOB 20 20130710
014800 1600N 06527W 8430 01618 0156 +165 +150 141041 042 033 000 00
014830 1559N 06528W 8429 01620 0153 +168 +146 142038 040 033 000 00
014900 1558N 06529W 8431 01617 0152 +169 +144 138038 038 033 000 00
014930 1557N 06530W 8428 01617 0150 +169 +145 138038 039 035 000 00
015000 1556N 06531W 8430 01614 0152 +167 +144 140039 040 036 000 00
015030 1555N 06533W 8429 01616 0151 +166 +145 140040 040 035 000 00
015100 1553N 06534W 8430 01616 0151 +163 +147 141039 040 037 000 00
015130 1552N 06535W 8433 01609 0154 +160 +154 141037 038 037 000 00
015200 1551N 06536W 8430 01616 0149 +169 +142 143038 039 034 000 00
015230 1550N 06537W 8429 01616 0147 +172 +140 143039 039 032 000 00
015300 1549N 06538W 8429 01613 0147 +172 +136 141038 039 032 000 00
015330 1548N 06540W 8432 01611 0148 +169 +137 142037 037 032 000 00
015400 1547N 06541W 8426 01619 0150 +165 +149 140036 037 031 000 00
015430 1546N 06542W 8429 01616 0153 +162 +145 137030 035 030 000 00
015500 1545N 06544W 8429 01617 0153 +164 +137 139030 031 030 000 00
015530 1544N 06545W 8427 01616 0152 +163 +148 144034 037 029 000 00
015600 1543N 06546W 8425 01617 0150 +165 +143 147030 034 030 000 00
015630 1542N 06547W 8429 01615 0147 +170 +145 144029 030 029 000 00
015700 1541N 06549W 8430 01614 0146 +171 +150 143029 030 029 000 00
015730 1540N 06550W 8429 01612 0144 +173 +147 142028 029 028 000 00
$$
;

[AJC3]

The 2358 UTC M/I pass, albeit 2 hours ago, still showed what I see as a fairly tight vortex.

[Gustywind]

If Chantal can move away or spare the Greater islands that will be a very interresting thing for DR, Haiti.

[floridasun78]

it look plane going close big blowout

[floridasun78]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html looking at Shortwave Infrared Imagery Loop center go under big blowout of storm

[artist]

[Aric Dunn]

The 2358 UTC M/I pass, albeit 2 hours ago, still showed what I see as a fairly tight vortex.

[img]http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc13/ATL/03L.CHANTAL/tc_ssmis/91h/1degreeticks/20130709.2358.f18.x.91h_1deg.03LCHANTAL.55kts-1006mb-148N-627W.94pc.jpg[/mg]

that one is much clearer than the one i posted around 5.. still cant figure out why recon is not going to the south west side..

[meriland23]

looks as though the strongest winds so far is about 50kt

[Kingarabian]

Sounds good King...we've got a good chance of severe weather in my area tomorrow, not sure on the timing yet but looked like afternoon which will pull me off this and onto local wx if it develops.

Alright, stay safe!