ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bamajammer4eva]

:uarrow: Seems the reposition of the circulation bumped the models back east. Also the model tracks seem slower than the 18z...

Yes but notice the TVCN/Average didn't change very much

[SFLcane]

:uarrow: Seems the reposition of the circulation bumped the models back east. Also the model tracks seem slower than the 18z...

Yes but notice the TVCN/Average didn't change very much

came a tad further north and east

[southerngale]

:uarrow: Seems the reposition of the circulation bumped the models back east. Also the model tracks seem slower than the 18z...

Yes but notice the TVCN/Average didn't change very much

came a tad further north and east

And then a due west turn. That seems odd, with so many showing it recurving.

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[TropicalAnalystwx13]

DMIN is over. Heading for DMAX now. Dry air about to become a non-issue. Look at the mid-level water vapor. It's heading into a very deep moist environment now. Shear will be the problem for the next 1-2 days since it has slowed down. However that area of shear to the west and northwest has really shrunk in coverage and, as we've been saying, is retrograding and lessening each day. I would agree with Stacy that should it survive that shear it could be a real problem for the western Bahamas and Florida.

SST, shear, and dry air appear to be non issue in 24+hrs, why are the global models showing nothing?? None of the models show anything but a wave?? Will that change if Dorian makes a comeback tonight?

It's different for each model. The GFS appears to have inherited a weak and west bias since its WCOSS transition, and it sends 91L/Ex-Dorian into Cuba. The ECMWF has failed to seriously develop any storm so far this season. Andrea for one run, Dorian for one run.

[Blown Away]

:uarrow: Seems the reposition of the circulation bumped the models back east. Also the model tracks seem slower than the 18z...

Yes but notice the TVCN/Average didn't change very much

came a tad further north and east

Position relocated about 120 miles ENE of the 18z, which is about the same distance between 18z and 00z TVCN...

[WeatherEmperor]

:uarrow: Seems the reposition of the circulation bumped the models back east. Also the model tracks seem slower than the 18z...

Yes but notice the TVCN/Average didn't change very much

At the 18z run the Tvcn was riding the north coast of Cuba before turning NW into the SE Gulf. Now at 00z, the Tvcn has repositioned north right into the Florida Keys and rides it along the south west coast of Florida. To be fair, this change is most likely do to the repositioning of the supposed center but it is still a significant change.

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[chaser1]

As a side note; just now noticing for the first time, the interaction between Dorian's outflow on its West side and coming up against that "shear zone". Perhaps catching up to it?? Which will win out?

[Aric Dunn]

beautiful outflow for a non tc....

[Bocadude85]

:uarrow: Seems the reposition of the circulation bumped the models back east. Also the model tracks seem slower than the 18z...

Yes but notice the TVCN/Average didn't change very much

The 0z runs of the GFDL, HWRF, GFS etc have not been factored into the TVCN yet either.

[wxman57]

It does look impressive this evening. I'm thinking NHC will reclassify it Dorian tomorrow but all models indicate weakening in a few days prior to it reaching the FL Straits Wednesday in 72hrs. Beyond then, I think it will turn northward near the FL Peninsula.

[chaser1]

Dorian: Rumors of my demise have been greatly exaggerated!

Nice convective blowup....lets see if it persists.....MGC

Thats it....LOL Need to come up with a term for the pain one feels when finally sitting up, after staring and looking at satellite loops WAY to long! LOL Maybe if I run to pick up some groceries, I'll come back to find a 4 degree round "bomb" go over over center?!

[funster]

So Dorian is going to form and then weaken again? lol

[gatorcane]

Short-wave IR image shows an impressive structure with excellent, symmetric outflow in all quadrants... and the new convection that is building at the center:

[Bocadude85]

Convection is really blossoming

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif

[Blown Away]

It does look impressive this evening. I'm thinking NHC will reclassify it Dorian tomorrow but all models indicate weakening in a few days prior to it reaching the FL Straits Wednesday in 72hrs. Beyond then, I think it will turn northward near the FL Peninsula.

What weakens it again??

[wxman57]

What image does wxman57 have in the event of regeneration

[pgoss11]

That is too funny!

[gatorcane]

Well DMAX is coming up tonight, and there is some popping convection near the MLC already. If we see convection increase around there tonight, that would indicate an LLC is forming there and this certainly can become a Tropical Storm again quite quickly.

Good evening, Chris...Certainly agree with above...Obviously, several factors are going to have to come together for that to happen. As you noted, this Dmax is going to be critical in order to initiate the preliminary pressure falls and initate the first stage of LLC consolidation. In addition, it should further warm the air column and reinforce the critical anticyclone. One of the primary reasons that I have some degree of confidence in the ultimate regeneration is the very favourable outflow in place over the trof. As 91L has slowed to a speed more in line with the ambient flow, the threat of shear has lessoned as the TUTT now appears to be moving in tandem with 91L. As noted elsewhere, SSTs are continuing to increase thruout the projected track. IMO, the only bugaboo 91L is facing in the near term is the ongoing problem of dry air. With that single exception, I believe all the pieces appear to be in place for regeneration...save the assent of the weather gods ...Grtz from KW, Rich

This should not be construed as a forecast. It is simply the opinion and reasoning of an informed amateur. These conclusions are not supported by storm2k, the NWS, or the NHC. The NWS or the NHC should be consulted for official forecasts and overall storm information

Rich yeah I agree with you that this thing is looking like it will regenerate. I am sure in the Keys you are closely monitoring this situation as I am in mainland South Florida.

[wxman57]

It does look impressive this evening. I'm thinking NHC will reclassify it Dorian tomorrow but all models indicate weakening in a few days prior to it reaching the FL Straits Wednesday in 72hrs. Beyond then, I think it will turn northward near the FL Peninsula.

What weakens it again??

GFS is indicating 30kts shear over it in the FL Straits.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

[northjaxpro]

What image does wxman57 have in the event of regeneration

LOL.. I love it wxman57. This is a preetty good one of Bones describing a regeneration. LOL.