ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

The new GFS has been left bias all along, just keep that in mind.

Isn't it a bit early for people to be making judgments on the "new" GFS? For starters, is it even that big of an upgrade? And if it is, It's been in use for less than a week and only with one, not very strong Atlantic storm. I'm just saying, if were going to make judgments on the "new" GFS, lets give it some time.

[Evil Jeremy]

when morning flight going up?

Next scheduled mission is 2 pm Monday...

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 73
A. 29/1730Z,2330Z
B. AFXXX 0304A DORIAN
C. 29/1600Z
D. 21.5N 68.0W
E. 29/1700Z TO 29/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Dave, what about this mission?

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 29/0530Z
B. AFXXX 0204A DORIAN
C. 29/0230Z
D. 20.4N 65.0W
E. 29/0300Z TO 29/0700Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[cycloneye]

San Juan radar showing some action well NE of PR. Saved loop.

[blp]

Looking at the ULL you can see with the graphic that the extent of the main line of shear is just west of PR. If you look at the loop below you will see that is now moving west and looks to stay just west of our system.



5 day movie.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8vor1/wg8vor1java.html

[blp]

Surprised we're not seeing deeper convection yet.

I was thinking the same thing. Maybe the dry air is still a problem. I know that south of the system there was still a pocket of dry air on the TPW loop. Everything else looks to be in place.

[Dave]

That's the one that I'm looking for right now...the 0230 mission and nothing transmitted through any places.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 29/0530Z
B. AFXXX 0204A DORIAN
C. 29/0230Z
D. 20.4N 65.0W
E. 29/0300Z TO 29/0700Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[ROCK]

0Z NAM.....if you hug the NAM....

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

[TheStormExpert]

Here's a look at the Mid. Level Water Vapor Imagery:

[TheStormExpert]

Latest SAL Map:

[TheStormExpert]

Water Vapor Loop:

[TheStormExpert]

A look at the Upper Level Winds shows that shear seems to be lessening slowly to the west with that ULL.

[Dave]

I won't be around for the 2 pm mission tomorrow....an appt that I can't miss so someone else will have to grab it. For now, I don't see anything flying tonight so am taking off now too.

[ozonepete]

Good posts StormExpert. You can see the last of dry air just south of Dorian. As it passes Puerto Rico it will go into a much more moist environment. Then shear will be the only big issue.

[Blown Away]

The 00z GFS doesn't even show a low through 45 hours...IMO the lack of development w/ these models can't be ignored...If the environment truly favored some development I think we would see some indication in the model runs...Nothing run after run...

[Chris_in_Tampa]

That's the one that I'm looking for right now...the 0230 mission and nothing transmitted through any places.

No new recon data. Did the flight get cancelled?

very seldom are invests flown at night.

The only 2 nighttime invest flights I can remember are the flight that found Erin in 1995 and the flight that found Bob in 1991. Both of those systems were over the Bahamas so they were impacting land when they were flown

When they are looking for a low level circulation they fly low. However, that is not something they are likely to do at night. (I say likely, but it simply might not be done, I'm not sure. I took a brief look at NHOP but can't find it: http://www.ofcm.gov/nhop/13/nhop13.htm) But with no land imminently they can wait. If the storm was doing very well, and maybe if a satellite indicated a closed circulation at the surface, maybe they would have went and flown at a higher altitude.

You just do not want to fly low at night and given they would want to close a LLC, which would be a main purpose of the flight, there is no point in flying high I suppose.

[SapphireSea]

Good posts StormExpert. You can see the last of dry air just south of Dorian. As it passes Puerto Rico it will go into a much more moist environment. Then shear will be the only big issue.

Interpolated LI numbers show very low end instability, I am not sure if it will be enough to reignite convection that can allow any LLC to survive. I would imagine that the ULL is bringing in cooler air aloft and steepening the lapse rates in it's area. I wonder if this is prepping instability for Dorian down the line? I don't see it weakening or moving very much like you do.

[Bocadude85]

The 00z GFS doesn't even show a low through 45 hours...IMO the lack of development w/ these models can't be ignored...If the environment truly favored some development I think we would see some indication in the model runs...Nothing run after run...

Agree and with the lack of deep convection developing tonight I do not see much happening with this system, at least not in the short term

[Evil Jeremy]

The 00z GFS doesn't even show a low through 45 hours...IMO the lack of development w/ these models can't be ignored...If the environment truly favored some development I think we would see some indication in the model runs...Nothing run after run...

Most, if not all of the models seem to be off so far this season. Even the ECMWF has barely detected any activity. And even if the models don't say anything is forming... we can see it on satellite. Models aren't always right. And they haven't been very attentive so far this year.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Plus, it is getting closer to being more on radar:
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... ightning=1
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... ms=0&pix=0
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[blp]

Was the 10:30pm recon cancelled?