ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[artist]

good night all.

[artist]

Gang,

For those who were wondering about the restricted airspace issue. Venezuela's Maiquetia Airspace/FIR (Flight Information Region) juts up north of 15N between 65W and 67W (roughly around the longitude of Puerto Rico).

edit: Oops...I see a bunch of posts about this already.

thanks AJ, and they now have equipment to detect if it is entered according to the article I posted above. Explains it now. Thanks, again. Too bad they won't allow us for this.

[Evil Jeremy]

:uarrow: I would like to know exactly what that's all about myself. Meanwhile...

Chantal blowing up some nice convection again...

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174 ... d323c3.jpg

I've been looking at this loop for a while. The area where storms are popping up, around 16N 66W, my incredibly untrained armature eyes spot low level rotation. Anyone else see what I am seeing?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Jevo]

0z NAVGEM +24

[Jevo]

Asked this in the other thread and might as well ask here. What happens if Chantal is downgraded to a wave as far as steering and future track goes? Does it get caught up in the deep easterlies and move more west or is the potential north to west turn the same?

I'm not 100%, but Ill give a bump so someone else can answer

[chaser1]

I spoke to soon - 0z GFS +72 - -I have no idea

Awwww, how cute?!! She had babies

[ROCK]

NAVGEM.....Yes!!! thanks Jevo!!

[Dave]

Whoever wants this mission go for it! I'm going to sleep soon....

000
URNT15 KNHC 100415
AF301 0403A CHANTAL HDOB 01 20130710
040600 1742N 06448W 0172 ///// 0174 +262 +233 360000 000 /// /// 23
040630 1742N 06448W 0172 ///// 0173 +260 +233 360000 000 /// /// 23
040700 1742N 06448W 0173 ///// 0174 +262 +233 360000 000 /// /// 23
040730 1742N 06448W 0172 ///// 0173 +261 +233 360000 000 /// /// 23
040800 1742N 06448W 0168 ///// 0169 +265 +233 360000 000 /// /// 23
040830 1742N 06448W 0165 ///// 0165 +261 +233 360000 000 /// /// 23
040900 1742N 06449W 0164 ///// 0163 +260 +233 360000 000 /// /// 23
040930 1742N 06449W 0153 ///// 0155 +256 +233 360000 000 /// /// 23
041000 1742N 06449W 0151 ///// 0154 +255 +233 360000 000 /// /// 23
041030 1742N 06449W 0155 ///// 0157 +248 +233 360000 000 /// /// 23
041100 1742N 06449W 0152 ///// 0153 +245 +237 098005 014 /// /// 23
041130 1742N 06448W 0069 00061 0159 +257 +241 099019 023 /// /// 03
041200 1742N 06447W 9808 00327 0181 +244 +227 105024 026 /// /// 03
041230 1741N 06446W 9546 00576 0194 +227 +209 109028 029 /// /// 03
041300 1740N 06446W 9305 00811 0207 +212 +196 108029 030 /// /// 03
041330 1739N 06448W 9103 01005 0212 +199 +184 113030 030 /// /// 03
041400 1738N 06450W 8869 01243 0226 +186 +166 119030 030 /// /// 03
041430 1738N 06451W 8522 01589 0225 +183 +115 131033 035 /// /// 03
041500 1737N 06453W 8463 01653 0228 +180 +101 130034 034 /// /// 03
041530 1737N 06455W 8474 01641 0232 +175 +109 128033 034 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Dave]

Whoever wants this mission go for it! I'm going to sleep soon....AF 301 is enroute to Chantal now.

000
URNT15 KNHC 100415
AF301 0403A CHANTAL HDOB 01 20130710
040600 1742N 06448W 0172 ///// 0174 +262 +233 360000 000 /// /// 23

[Dave]

Whoever wants this mission go for it! I'm going to sleep soon....AF 301 is enroute to Chantal now.

[tailgater]

This feaure is starting to get a little more interesting.

5 day 0f 850 mb vorticity loop
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 4java.html

5 day of 200 mb vorticity loop
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 1java.html

Pressures are slowly dropping along the SE coast of Fla. and the ULL is fading. It looks to me like the weak LL voricity is moving west across the southern tip of Fla with the fading ULL droping to the SW.

I posted this in the other thread about this area but would like to here yall's thoughts on it as to the future track of Chantel

[SapphireSea]

I don't really see any circulation. If it exists or if not then any chance of regeneration would probably be closer to the current convective ball, albeit displayed to W-WNW of it. Really I think that this is a wave right now, albeit a powerful one. One that can easily come back at a 45kt storm. The convection should sustain itself for a while, so possibly it's irrelevant to deal with the technicalities on this one, and treat it as Chantal. If the storm degenerated to a wave axis, it could explain it's now more W-ward movement in the last few hours due to it steering with the very low level. It could've also meant the storm was a bit deeper than analyzed earlier in reality.

[Evil Jeremy]

I've got it Dave.

[Jevo]

NAVGEM.....Yes!!! thanks Jevo!!

NAVGEM = BESTGEM

[Kingarabian]

ROCK why are you soo attached to the NOGAPS lol.

[ROCK]

Asked this in the other thread and might as well ask here. What happens if Chantal is downgraded to a wave as far as steering and future track goes? Does it get caught up in the deep easterlies and move more west or is the potential north to west turn the same?

I'm not 100%, but Ill give a bump so someone else can answer

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

all I can give you is a link to the steering layers. ..but you do have a good point...the evolution of that ULL, and how much she gets smashed up will determine where the low level flow is heading....IMO

[Dave]

I've got it Dave.

Sounds good. Thanks!

[ROCK]

ROCK why are you soo attached to the NOGAPS lol.

Its got a cool name now and has been upgraded..... Hey the Navy and Dr. Masters like it.....

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100426
AF301 0403A CHANTAL HDOB 02 20130710
041600 1736N 06457W 8473 01643 0235 +170 +118 129031 032 /// /// 03
041630 1735N 06459W 8476 01637 0234 +170 +125 126032 033 /// /// 03
041700 1734N 06501W 8491 01625 0230 +171 +129 129031 033 /// /// 03
041730 1733N 06502W 8462 01646 0228 +169 +117 128032 033 /// /// 03
041800 1732N 06504W 8473 01638 0227 +172 +120 128034 034 /// /// 03
041830 1731N 06505W 8475 01634 0225 +172 +122 127032 034 /// /// 03
041900 1730N 06506W 8471 01639 0226 +172 +123 128033 033 /// /// 03
041930 1728N 06508W 8473 01635 0227 +167 +127 123033 034 /// /// 03
042000 1727N 06509W 8473 01635 0227 +168 +122 125036 036 /// /// 03
042030 1726N 06511W 8470 01640 0224 +172 +109 124035 036 /// /// 03
042100 1725N 06512W 8475 01631 0223 +175 +105 124034 035 /// /// 03
042130 1724N 06514W 8474 01632 0222 +173 +107 121035 035 /// /// 03
042200 1723N 06515W 8473 01634 0227 +170 +112 122034 035 /// /// 03
042230 1723N 06517W 8473 01635 0226 +170 +114 120035 035 /// /// 03
042300 1722N 06518W 8473 01632 0226 +168 +116 119036 036 /// /// 03
042330 1721N 06520W 8471 01636 0226 +169 +110 121035 036 /// /// 03
042400 1720N 06521W 8474 01630 0224 +170 +107 123036 036 /// /// 03
042430 1719N 06523W 8473 01633 0224 +169 +109 122037 037 /// /// 03
042500 1718N 06524W 8473 01633 0228 +165 +112 120035 036 /// /// 03
042530 1717N 06526W 8474 01632 0228 +165 +115 122035 035 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Evil Jeremy]

Recon en route to Chantal. Follow along in the Recon observations thread or with the mission summary linked in my signature.