ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Jevo]

0z NAVGEM +48

[ROCK]

72hrs....heading over Jam, then over Cuba, heading towards FL tip...

[Evil Jeremy]

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html


Looking at the upper level low in the florida straights it does not seem to be moving or weakening, I wonder how this is going to effect things

[Stormlover2012]

Images please?

[ROCK]

96 hrs after crossing Cube it hits the keys and starts going into the GOM....west we go....

Jevo-- the best site is the NAVY site for the NAVGEM....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ROCK]

108hr in the GOM whats left of it anyway...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100435
AF301 0403A CHANTAL HDOB 03 20130710
042600 1716N 06527W 8474 01632 0227 +165 +121 122035 036 /// /// 03
042630 1715N 06529W 8474 01630 0225 +165 +112 123034 035 /// /// 03
042700 1714N 06530W 8471 01631 0226 +165 +120 123033 034 /// /// 03
042730 1713N 06532W 8473 01630 0224 +164 +133 123034 034 /// /// 03
042800 1712N 06533W 8467 01636 0226 +160 +136 123034 034 /// /// 03
042830 1711N 06535W 8475 01631 0229 +160 +138 123033 034 /// /// 03
042900 1710N 06536W 8466 01637 0227 +160 +135 124034 034 /// /// 03
042930 1708N 06538W 8474 01631 0230 +160 +139 125034 034 /// /// 03
043000 1707N 06540W 8471 01637 0230 +160 +138 125033 034 /// /// 03
043030 1706N 06542W 8474 01631 0229 +160 +137 126033 034 /// /// 03
043100 1705N 06543W 8474 01632 0229 +161 +134 128033 033 /// /// 03
043130 1704N 06545W 8471 01634 0228 +161 +131 131035 035 /// /// 03
043200 1703N 06547W 8474 01630 0227 +161 +136 132034 035 /// /// 03
043230 1702N 06548W 8471 01632 0227 +160 +140 131034 035 /// /// 03
043300 1701N 06550W 8474 01629 0226 +158 +144 129033 034 /// /// 03
043330 1700N 06552W 8474 01631 0225 +160 +139 130034 034 /// /// 03
043400 1658N 06553W 8471 01631 0226 +160 +130 133035 035 /// /// 03
043430 1657N 06555W 8473 01628 0224 +160 +131 131036 036 031 000 03
043500 1656N 06557W 8473 01632 0226 +158 +132 131036 037 031 000 00
043530 1655N 06559W 8473 01628 0225 +157 +143 132034 035 031 000 00
$$
;

[tailgater]

Puerto Rico kong range radar
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... A&loop=yes

At this distance from the radar you are Not seeing anything close to the surface, but probably 4 or 5,000ft above sea level. Still seems like a fairly healthy storm

[ROCK]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[meriland23]

Is it just me? or did chantal disintegrate before my eyes the last few frames...



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Combination of images from AJC3 on one, with previous mission track and new mission on the way:

[AtlanticWind]

I have to say , I am kinda with the Navgem track on this storm if it survives, though I could see it getting pulled a little further north in the eastern gulf

[SouthFloridawx]

meriland, I've seen worse.

Chris_in_Tampa - That's pretty funny and cool that you made the overlay.

[artist]

Combination of images from AJC3 on one, with previous mission track and new mission on the way:

thanks Chris, that is awesome. It shows exactly where they won't go.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100445
AF301 0403A CHANTAL HDOB 04 20130710
043600 1654N 06600W 8477 01623 0223 +160 +140 137035 035 032 000 00
043630 1653N 06602W 8472 01629 0224 +156 +142 135033 034 032 000 00
043700 1652N 06604W 8474 01625 0222 +160 +136 137035 035 032 000 00
043730 1651N 06605W 8474 01625 0222 +157 +133 137035 036 031 000 00
043800 1650N 06607W 8472 01625 0223 +157 +133 136036 036 032 000 00
043830 1649N 06609W 8467 01631 0220 +157 +147 132032 036 033 000 01
043900 1648N 06610W 8443 01650 0214 +161 +125 136037 038 030 000 00
043930 1647N 06612W 8463 01631 0215 +162 +124 137037 038 030 000 00
044000 1646N 06613W 8585 01508 0212 +168 +128 137039 040 031 000 00
044030 1645N 06614W 8718 01372 0209 +173 +146 132039 040 031 000 00
044100 1644N 06616W 8847 01244 0208 +179 +157 128040 040 032 000 00
044130 1643N 06617W 8979 01116 0206 +187 +165 127040 041 031 000 00
044200 1642N 06619W 9065 01030 0201 +190 +177 122037 040 033 002 01
044230 1641N 06620W 9082 01002 0189 +195 +170 124040 041 030 001 00
044300 1640N 06622W 9076 01009 0189 +195 +168 124040 041 031 000 00
044330 1639N 06623W 9082 01002 0188 +195 +170 125040 040 031 000 00
044400 1638N 06624W 9080 01003 0187 +190 +172 124040 041 033 000 00
044430 1637N 06626W 9079 01002 0188 +187 +176 123041 041 032 001 00
044500 1636N 06627W 9080 00999 0186 +188 +175 126041 041 032 000 00
044530 1636N 06627W 9080 00999 0184 +190 +169 130043 043 032 000 00
$$
;

[ROCK]

I have to say , I am kinda with the Navgem track on this storm if it survives, though I could see it getting pulled a little further north in the eastern gulf

its been pretty consistent for awhile now....but its not really on par with the EURO of GFS as far as verification....heavy weight fighting a light weight....

[chaser1]

Asked this in the other thread and might as well ask here. What happens if Chantal is downgraded to a wave as far as steering and future track goes? Does it get caught up in the deep easterlies and move more west or is the potential north to west turn the same?

[color=#4000BF]Good question. If one were to look at the 00Z map from tonight's GFS model Run and then compare it to the 48 hour forecast, it would appear as if Chantal were suddenly twins. When in reality what you're looking at are first, a low level vorticity center near the South coast of Cuba caused by the low-level center which now decoupled, and continued moving farther west with the low-level flow. Meanwhile, the mid level vorticity being affected by the mid-level steering was farther east and north about to cross the island of Hispaniola. Now, assuming that the low level vorticity center could be a risk for regeneration, here is a good example of how the dynamics which may have caused the storm to decouple, has now presented a situation that theoretically could put E. Cuba and South Florida at risk due to the low level center being carried further west with lower level flow (which likely would not have occurred had Chantal remained a vertically stacked tropical storm.

In this case, conditions appear hostile enough and the remnant surface level low might likely remain as an open wave moving north within the larger trough over or east of Florida. The possibility exists that this low level center could tighten up a bit and possibly come into South Florida as a tropical depression or storm, but unlikely.[,/color]

[meriland23]

...Is there another recon one out there right now?

[Evil Jeremy]