ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

It appears the cloud mass isn't moving to much now??
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[wxman57]

Any weak LLC would be in the yellow circle, not beneath the convection. Convection is being sheared off to the NE. No redevelopment today.

[wxman57]

It appears the cloud mass isn't moving too much now??
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

It's still moving at a good clip, but you're focusing on the wrong feature. That area of convection is remaining stationary because it's forming at a point on the SE side of the upper low. Since the upper low isn't moving much, that convection area isn't moving. However, Dorian's lower-level feature continues moving west, separating itself further from the convection. Look at the low clouds left of the convection.

[hurricanekid416]

It appears the cloud mass isn't moving too much now??
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

It's still moving at a good clip, but you're focusing on the wrong feature. That area of convection is remaining stationary because it's forming at a point on the SE side of the upper low. Since the upper low isn't moving much, that convection area isn't moving. However, Dorian's lower-level feature continues moving west, separating itself further from the convection. Look at the low clouds left of the convection.

Is it possible for the llc to get pulled back

[wxman57]

It appears the cloud mass isn't moving too much now??
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

It's still moving at a good clip, but you're focusing on the wrong feature. That area of convection is remaining stationary because it's forming at a point on the SE side of the upper low. Since the upper low isn't moving much, that convection area isn't moving. However, Dorian's lower-level feature continues moving west, separating itself further from the convection. Look at the low clouds left of the convection.

Is it possible for the llc to get pulled back

That won't happen (center moving back to current convective area) with the shear so high today.

[hurricanekid416]

When will there be recon

[Hurricaneman]

When will there be recon

2pm

[cycloneye]

Plane ready to depart.

URNT15 KNHC 291558
AF301 0204A DORIAN HDOB 01 20130729
154930 1742N 06448W 0172 ///// 0161 +360 +288 360000 000 /// /// 23
155000 1742N 06448W 0172 ///// 0161 +352 +288 360000 000 /// /// 23
155030 1742N 06448W 0172 ///// 0161 +352 +288 360000 000 /// /// 23
155100 1742N 06448W 0172 ///// 0161 +349 +287 360000 000 /// /// 23
155130 1742N 06448W 0172 ///// 0162 +345 +287 360000 000 /// /// 23
155200 1742N 06448W 0172 ///// 0161 +345 +287 360000 000 /// /// 23
155230 1742N 06448W 0172 ///// 0161 +345 +286 360000 000 /// /// 23
155300 1742N 06448W 0172 ///// 0161 +345 +285 360000 000 /// /// 23
155330 1742N 06448W 0172 ///// 0162 +335 +285 360000 000 /// /// 23
155400 1742N 06448W 0172 ///// 0162 +336 +284 360000 000 /// /// 23
155430 1742N 06448W 0172 ///// 0161 +342 +284 360000 000 /// /// 23
155500 1742N 06448W 0172 ///// 0161 +350 +283 360000 000 /// /// 23
155530 1742N 06448W 0172 ///// 0161 +351 +283 360000 000 /// /// 23
155600 1742N 06448W 0172 ///// 0161 +355 +283 360000 000 /// /// 23
155630 1742N 06448W 0170 ///// 0159 +365 +283 360000 000 /// /// 23
155700 1742N 06448W 0170 ///// 0159 +355 +284 360000 000 /// /// 23
155730 1742N 06448W 0171 ///// 0160 +348 +283 360000 000 /// /// 23
155800 1742N 06448W 0170 ///// 0159 +338 +283 360000 000 /// /// 23
155830 1742N 06448W 0168 ///// 0157 +317 +283 360000 000 /// /// 23
155900 1742N 06448W 0166 ///// 0155 +301 +283 360000 000 /// /// 23

[floridasun78]

When will there be recon

2pm

plane already going out i see it google map

[cycloneye]

Here we go!

URNT15 KNHC 291608
AF301 0204A DORIAN HDOB 02 20130729
155930 1742N 06448W 0164 ///// 0153 +299 +282 360000 000 /// /// 23
160000 1742N 06449W 0160 ///// 0149 +298 +281 360000 000 /// /// 23
160030 1742N 06449W 0157 ///// 0146 +297 +280 360000 000 /// /// 23
160100 1742N 06449W 0157 ///// 0143 +306 +279 360000 000 /// /// 23
160130 1742N 06449W 0147 ///// 0142 +320 +278 360000 000 /// /// 23
160200 1742N 06449W 0155 ///// 0143 +328 +277 360000 000 /// /// 23
160230 1742N 06449W 0154 ///// 0142 +327 +275 360000 000 /// /// 23
160300 1742N 06449W 0155 ///// 0143 +330 +274 360000 000 /// /// 23
160330 1742N 06449W 0155 ///// 0144 +333 +273 360000 000 /// /// 23
160400 1742N 06449W 0149 ///// 0139 +296 +272 131005 010 /// /// 23
160430 1742N 06448W 0071 00047 0145 +277 +253 124012 015 /// /// 06
160500 1742N 06447W 9846 00277 0164 +250 +229 121013 013 /// /// 03
160530 1742N 06445W 9579 00510 0163 +227 +218 120013 014 /// /// 03
160600 1741N 06444W 9174 00905 0175 +206 +180 125018 019 /// /// 03
160630 1741N 06442W 8839 01226 0181 +185 +158 116019 019 /// /// 03
160700 1743N 06442W 8583 01467 0119 +173 +138 106019 020 /// /// 03
160730 1744N 06443W 8169 01880 0117 +158 +089 121009 018 /// /// 03
160800 1746N 06443W 7815 02278 0160 +148 +026 141009 010 /// /// 03
160830 1747N 06444W 7591 02517 0154 +137 -037 149009 009 /// /// 03
160900 1749N 06445W 7412 02719 0158 +122 -047 142009 010 /// /// 03
$$

[cycloneye]

Plane is in the air.Let's see what it finds.

[cycloneye]

When will there be recon

2pm

Plane flying now. Follow the data here.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=115297&p=2325527#p2325527

[otowntiger]

Any weak LLC would be in the yellow circle, not beneath the convection. Convection is being sheared off to the NE. No redevelopment today.

how 'bout tomorrow?

[northtxboy]

I normally stay out of voicing my opinion on storms due to my lack of understanding but today I feel like giving my 2 cents Dorian sure is a fighter and I have a lot of respect for the little guy. He has gone threw so much, colder water dry air shear more dry air and more shear but he still tries to fight. I dont think at this time Dorian is going to amount to much. He may be just a puff of clouds soon. But Dorian seems hell bent on becoming a storm. Now I am not worried about Dorian at the moment becasue he has so much to go through at the momet. When dorian was a tropical storm there was all this talk about FL SC impact, but I knew that it was going to be hard for Dorian to survive. I knew a weaker dorian/tropical wave would track further west. If dorian can stay weak but still try to hold itself together over the next two days like it has been doing for days now, when he gets into the gom I think we might have some trouble. To me the gom seems primed for development, as far as I can see and I am no Pro, but I don't see much to stop Dorian from getting its act together in the gom. So my question is, What will Dorian be like when he enters the gom? Right now the ULL is beating the hell out of Dorian, its like the ULL showed up with a baseball bat and Dorian owes him money.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Atlantic USAF High-Density Observations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT15 KNHC 291618
AF301 0204A DORIAN HDOB 03 20130729
160930 1750N 06446W 7227 02933 0160 +109 -062 149006 008 /// /// 03
161000 1752N 06447W 7023 03174 0159 +099 -092 151010 012 /// /// 03
161030 1754N 06448W 6994 03206 0159 +095 -091 146013 013 /// /// 03
161100 1756N 06449W 7000 03194 0158 +094 -093 144012 013 /// /// 03
161130 1758N 06450W 7004 03189 0160 +095 -109 145010 011 /// /// 03
161200 1801N 06451W 7011 03181 0157 +095 -113 144011 011 /// /// 03
161230 1803N 06452W 7004 03206 0170 +095 -111 144010 011 /// /// 03
161300 1805N 06453W 7004 03187 0155 +095 -092 144011 011 /// /// 03
161330 1808N 06454W 7010 03183 0156 +095 -094 148010 011 /// /// 03
161400 1810N 06456W 7010 03183 0158 +097 -108 147010 010 /// /// 03
161430 1812N 06457W 7008 03186 0154 +100 -099 150010 011 /// /// 03
161500 1815N 06458W 7008 03185 0150 +100 -079 152011 011 /// /// 03
161530 1817N 06459W 7011 03184 0151 +100 -061 152011 011 /// /// 03
161600 1820N 06501W 7010 03185 0150 +100 -069 154011 011 /// /// 03
161630 1822N 06501W 7008 03178 0117 +100 -094 157013 015 /// /// 03
161700 1825N 06501W 7004 03189 0151 +100 -084 159014 015 /// /// 03
161730 1827N 06501W 7006 03189 0151 +100 -094 157015 015 /// /// 03
161800 1830N 06501W 7010 03184 0152 +100 -093 161014 015 /// /// 03
161830 1833N 06501W 7008 03188 0153 +100 -099 162013 014 /// /// 03
161900 1835N 06501W 7010 03185 0152 +100 -096 161013 013 /// /// 03
$$

[tgenius]

The one question I do have is...

Will the convection thats blowing off to the NE come towards Florida? It could mean the difference between a nice day and a miserable raining day. Looks like it could cause alot of flooding too.

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm at work so I'm not up to date on all the latest data, but 91L is looking good for fighting 30kts of shear. Mid level rotation is evident, it just needs to wait for the shear to subside. Convection holding better than yesterday (granted, due to the shear).

If the NHC had already implemented the new 5 daft TWO, what percentage do you think they would give 91L?

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 291628
AF301 0204A DORIAN HDOB 04 20130729
161930 1838N 06501W 7010 03184 0152 +100 -102 161013 014 /// /// 03
162000 1840N 06501W 7011 03183 0153 +100 -121 164012 013 /// /// 03
162030 1843N 06501W 7008 03189 0153 +100 -117 162012 013 /// /// 03
162100 1846N 06501W 7010 03186 0156 +099 -119 165012 012 /// /// 03
162130 1848N 06501W 7008 03184 0155 +100 -120 167012 012 /// /// 03
162200 1851N 06501W 7008 03185 0153 +100 -115 169012 013 /// /// 03
162230 1853N 06501W 7011 03183 0152 +100 -109 171014 014 /// /// 03
162300 1856N 06501W 7008 03187 0153 +100 -105 173013 014 /// /// 03
162330 1859N 06501W 7030 03160 0156 +102 -140 165012 013 /// /// 03
162400 1901N 06501W 7308 02839 0171 +110 -149 166014 016 /// /// 03
162430 1904N 06500W 7616 02491 0171 +130 -133 150013 015 /// /// 03
162500 1906N 06500W 7959 02131 0189 +141 -030 140018 021 /// /// 03
162530 1909N 06500W 8312 01760 0190 +150 +104 132022 024 /// /// 03
162600 1911N 06500W 8665 01404 0188 +170 +135 131022 022 /// /// 03
162630 1913N 06500W 9028 01066 0197 +194 +149 132020 022 /// /// 03
162700 1916N 06500W 9408 00696 0184 +214 +176 133017 020 /// /// 03
162730 1918N 06500W 9639 00475 0174 +228 +209 131014 015 /// /// 03
162800 1920N 06500W 9671 00444 0177 +232 +219 136012 014 /// /// 03
162830 1921N 06500W 9804 00330 0180 +242 +223 141011 011 /// /// 03
162900 1923N 06500W 9846 00293 0178 +245 +224 142011 012 /// /// 03
$$

[NDG]

Is a beautiful circulation!!!




At the mid levels, of course

[ronjon]

Have to keep an eye on the tropical intensity models such as HWRF and GFDL. If they both continue to ramp up exDorian in the FL straits, we could have a problem here. They do that in the 3-5 day timeframe so they're reflecting the current shear conditions quite well.