ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[SouthFloridawx]

Isn't that a solution GFS had suggested yesterday? The mid-level circ went more northerly over Hispaniola and the low-level circ dissipated as it moved west? If so, yes we gotta watch that this afternoon/evening for reformation.

If you look at this loop, you can see a circulation run into Hispaniola and that's where it is now.
[img]http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif[img]

I was wondering it that had occurred. may have to watch the north of Hispaniola over the next couple days as the energy splits..

I'm more and more thinking this split last night just as RECON was leaving. The low level center ripped westward and the mid-level went more wnw. The low level center disintegrated in the fast westerlies this morning and the main energy at mid-levels (the nose of the wave) is going to go right over Haiti and then eastern Cuba. If it redevelops the new LLC could quite possibly put down a little further east of the NHC track - between Haiti and Cuba or just north of eastern Cuba tonight. I'm thinking that because I think the models are in a classic problem area where they try to follow mid-levels and low-levels that have split. They don't do well in this area. Actually we don't either, lol. It's just wait and see. But I can't see any low-level LLC redeveloping so far west given that screaming easterly low-level environment.

[ozonepete]

we have seen these energy splits in the past but before anyone gets too excited it has proven rather difficult to split it then get something to re-form but it has happened, didn't Jeanne or Frances come as a result of a split?

I believe it was Jeanne, but I've seen it a lot of times. Remember Ivan split and it's low-level center traveled back down the east coast and regenerated days later. That's an example of the mid-level flow dying but the LLC hung on. It's usually the mid-level that survives though. The most common is over mountains like these. We've seen a number of TCs get their LLC wiped out over Haiti and then the MLC puts down a new LLC north of there over the warm water. A lot of these cases are never documented because the whole process often lasts 12 hours or less.

[ronjon]

Its just a big ole tropical wave now, lol. Funny though the cloud pattern and size looks the best it ever has. Again, if the convection holds, it wouldn't be a big suprise for another LLC to redevelop somewhere down the road.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/03L/flash-vis-long.html

PS - and where's that screaming shear that was supposed to occur - looks like a small anticyclone is building overtop of ex-Chantal. Getting some nice outflow in the north and east quads.

[ozonepete]

Isn't that a solution GFS had suggested yesterday? The mid-level circ went more northerly over Hispaniola and the low-level circ dissipated as it moved west? If so, yes we gotta watch that this afternoon/evening for reformation.

Yup. exactly. That's why it's important to watch it, especially as long as convection keeps firing and we can see vorticity at 700 mb and 500 mb.

[Weatherboy1]

So just wondering at this point - do they kill it off at 5 given the recon and its apparent inability to close off a true LLC? Or do they give it another 6 hours in case of regeneration given still strong winds and large amount of convection that has blown up today? I don't know. It's almost certainly not a TRUE system ... but what if it blows up a new LLC very soon now that it is likely slowing down and getting into a more favorable region for development (climatologically speaking anyway)? Kind of a dilemma. They could end up downgrading her only to have her come back 12 hours later.

[Blown Away]

Isn't that a solution GFS had suggested yesterday? The mid-level circ went more northerly over Hispaniola and the low-level circ dissipated as it moved west? If so, yes we gotta watch that this afternoon/evening for reformation.

Yup. exactly. That's why it's important to watch it, especially as long as convection keeps firing and we can see vorticity at 700 mb and 500 mb.

Are we able to determine lat/long for the mid level circulation is at this point?? JB also said watch N for redeveloping LLC...

[hurricanekid416]

Did the recon find a closed center

[ozonepete]

So just wondering at this point - do they kill it off at 5 given the recon and its apparent inability to close off a true LLC? Or do they give it another 6 hours in case of regeneration given still strong winds and large amount of convection that has blown up today? I don't know. It's almost certainly not a TRUE system ... but what if it blows up a new LLC very soon now that it is likely slowing down and getting into a more favorable region for development (climatologically speaking anyway)? Kind of a dilemma. They could end up downgrading her only to have her come back 12 hours later.

If RECON doesn't find a closed LLC close enough to the convection or doesn't find one at all before the 5PM they will declare it dissipated and just say that it has a chance for regeneration and will monitor it. It's tough to do because they then have to drop all the warnings (though local governments can keep theirs I believe, if they want) but they can't call it what it isn't and they won't. They've had to do this before and really don't have any choice. One other option is if there's a closed LLC close enough to the convection but no TS winds they can demote it to TD and keep some watches or warnings. But it doesn't matter even if they think it will be back in 6 hours - they'll still kill it.

[AtlanticWind]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

GFDL Not giving up on Chantal

['CaneFreak]

I am either seeing a low level center or an old dying low level eddy...it just popped out of the convection...looks like it may be heading just south of due west...15.8 N 73.2 W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[ozonepete]

I am either seeing a low level center or an old dying low level eddy...it just popped out of the convection...looks like it may be heading just south of due west...15.8 N 73.2 W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

think that's just an eddy..

[Gustywind]

Yah, heading west at nearly 30 mph, no wonder she can't keep anything going, it's like having a guillotine following her around.

Agree , and that's already an outstanding performance from Chantal ( July TS) being able to maintained a such fast speed average of 40km/h at least 4 days . Lowest was 41 km/h , Monday 2PM near the 53W: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/CHANTAL.shtml?

Difficult to have always energy that this speed!

That's what my untrained eyes have particulary seen especially with this one.

Ha, I wouldn't call either of you untrained! You two have been seeing things right as long as I've been around here. It is pretty amazing that Chantal stayed together as long as it did. I haven't looked at the numbers yet but I guess the mid-level winds were a little fast themselves and blowing wnw as well - this allowed the low and mid-levels to stay pretty close together even at the screaming low-level pace. Now the mid-level circulation is feeling the tug of that ULL over Florida and is moving more northerly while the low-level trades keep going west at a fast pace. In hindsight the mid-level flow would have to split off. I'm just wondering what will happen when the MLC gets back over water and the low-level winds slow down a little near Cuba. I'd only give it a 50/50 chance of regenerating.

Thanks for this remark . Nice analysis. You, you're always trained, maybe better that Chantal Where is she going? She wants to be faster than Lewis Hamilton?

[tolakram]

I am either seeing a low level center or an old dying low level eddy...it just popped out of the convection...looks like it may be heading just south of due west...15.8 N 73.2 W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Using the higher rez rapid scan loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

I only see outflow boundaries, but of course I could be wrong.

[Hurricane_Luis]

No circulation at all here. I think that Chantal has degenerated into an open wave. The "centre" is marked by a black cross, south of Hispaniola.

[Gustywind]

Hi my friends , i suppose that many of you want to know the latest on TS Chantal. I share with you these interresting datas.
For those who are interrested, here the latest recap of Meteo-France Martinica concerning Chantal's impacts in Martinica.
Here are some datas observed yesterday. Those concerning the gusts values are bit impressive, (given my untrained eyes ) for a moderate TS, especially in one area of the island . See below :

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_ma.pdf ( french version)

During the episode:

[size=150]Rainfall[/size]: Between 80 millimeters and 120 millimeters on the southern part of the island, and 30 millimeters to 80 millimeters elsewhere in the island.

Winds:
Gusts: Between 100 km/h and 120km/h till 170 km/h :eek: at Morne les Cadets

Sea: Waves averaged 1 meter in the Bay of Fort-de-France (center of the island).
Waves averaged 4,30 meters in Atlantic with waves maxima up to 7 meters.


Regards
Gustywind

[AtlanticWind]

I am either seeing a low level center or an old dying low level eddy...it just popped out of the convection...looks like it may be heading just south of due west...15.8 N 73.2 W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

I see that too, looks like it is the low level center , maybe a mid level center to its north.

[Stormlover2012]

Gfdl has been bad for a decade now but something to watch

['CaneFreak]

Oh ok. Thanks much

I am either seeing a low level center or an old dying low level eddy...it just popped out of the convection...looks like it may be heading just south of due west...15.8 N 73.2 W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

think that's just an eddy..

[SFLcane]

This can still affect SFL even it's an open wave now it could reintensify once in Florida straits. So certainly bares watching

[ROCK]

I am either seeing a low level center or an old dying low level eddy...it just popped out of the convection...looks like it may be heading just south of due west...15.8 N 73.2 W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

I see it also but I think its a dying LL eddy....