ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

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ozonepete
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Re:

#3121 Postby ozonepete » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:26 pm

Gustywind wrote:Latest SSD numbers for Chantal...

:rarrow: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html


10/1745 UTC 17.8N 71.4W OVERLAND CHANTAL
10/1145 UTC 15.6N 71.0W T1.5/1.5 CHANTAL
10/0545 UTC 15.7N 67.3W T1.0/2.0 CHANTAL


wow! So there is a new LLC closer to the convection. That is well north of where the old LLC was. So it is indeed crossing Haiti and the track may shift back eastward and a little more north as I was saying earlier. Fascinating storm. So now I wonder if they'll call it TD or even keep it TS at 5PM. Wouldn't surprise me....
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3122 Postby BUCMAN48 » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:26 pm

Thank you OzonPete-great stuff my dad's was from Brooklyn.
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#3123 Postby Jevo » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:26 pm

12z Euro had nothing at initialization and that continued throughout the run

Image
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3124 Postby ozonepete » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:26 pm

BUCMAN48 wrote:Thank you OzonPete-great stuff my dad's was from Brooklyn.


You're welcome. :)
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#3125 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:27 pm

It looks like maybe some of the energy is transferring north of the island as convection is starting to blow up there. Maybe it will drop a new center there and jump over the island...it could happen
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3126 Postby tolakram » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:27 pm

Full 30 frame visible loop from a distance: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

If you speed it up you can see the NW drift of the convection, IMO.
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Re: Re:

#3127 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:27 pm

artist wrote:interesting, so they think her circulation is overland.

It looks like it could be over Hispaniola according to this graphic.

Image
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Re: Re:

#3128 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:28 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Latest SSD numbers for Chantal...

:rarrow: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html


10/1745 UTC 17.8N 71.4W OVERLAND CHANTAL
10/1145 UTC 15.6N 71.0W T1.5/1.5 CHANTAL
10/0545 UTC 15.7N 67.3W T1.0/2.0 CHANTAL


wow! So there is a new LLC closer to the convection. That is well north of where the old LLC was. So it is indeed crossing Haiti and the track may shift back eastward and a little more north as I was saying earlier. Fascinating storm. So now I wonder if they'll call it TD or even keep it TS at 5PM. Wouldn't surprise me....


IMO this storm is dead and NHC will declare it as such in an hour. Having said that, I think chances for redevelopment are decent once the shear drops and the remnants slow down.
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Re:

#3129 Postby fci » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:29 pm

northtxboy wrote:If chantal is gone what do we do now? :(


You already asked this about 20 minutes ago and got several responses.
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#3130 Postby Weatherboy1 » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:31 pm

That's an interesting observation ozonepete. Like you said, maybe they just maintain it as a TD for a bit longer in that case. It's a generous classification, but it might give them time to make sure it doesn't regenerate? Or maybe as you said earlier, they will just kill it because they have to since recon could not find an LLC (as far as I can tell).
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#3131 Postby AtlanticWind » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:34 pm

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL LOCATED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA IS FORECAST BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) TO MOVE NORTHWEST TONIGHT BEFORE
TURNING MORE NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA...AND
POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. THE NHC IS ALSO
FORECASTING CHANTAL TO WEAKEN DOWN TO A DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. SO THE POPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE RAISED
TO AT LEAST 60 PERCENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THESE POPS COULD
BE RAISED HIGHER IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES IF THE TRACK CONTINUES
AS FORECASTED BY THE NHC. VISITORS AND RESIDENTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION FROM
OUR OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OFFICE ON TROPICAL
STORM CHANTAL.

From MIami NWS
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3132 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:36 pm

18z Best Track downgrades to disturbance.

AL, 03, 2013071018, , BEST, 0, 165N, 730W, 40, 1012, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal032013.dat
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#3133 Postby Weatherboy1 » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:36 pm

One thing that's worth noting -- Chantal (or her remnants) sure does have a large cloud shield/area of convection. Measured north to south, it's almost the length of the Florida peninsula. Impressive even if there's no discernible LLC at this time. At the very least, we could see a lot of rain over a large area here in FL.
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3134 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:38 pm

cycloneye wrote:18z Best Track downgrades to disturbance.

AL, 03, 2013071018, , BEST, 0, 165N, 730W, 40, 1012, DB


That's the best indication we have on what the 5pm advisory will say.
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3135 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:39 pm

Interesting...that is WAAAAAAAY south and west of the SSD estimate that had it over land. This will definitely be an interesting advisory package to say the very least.

cycloneye wrote:18z Best Track downgrades to disturbance.

AL, 03, 2013071018, , BEST, 0, 165N, 730W, 40, 1012, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal032013.dat


Gustywind wrote:Latest SSD numbers for Chantal...

:rarrow: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html


10/1745 UTC 17.8N 71.4W OVERLAND CHANTAL
10/1145 UTC 15.6N 71.0W T1.5/1.5 CHANTAL
10/0545 UTC 15.7N 67.3W T1.0/2.0 CHANTAL
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#3136 Postby funster » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:41 pm

Chantal is blobbing out http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif
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#3137 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:42 pm

Here is a video (local TV Martinica) of the damages of TS Chantal in Martinica.

:rarrow: http://martinique.la1ere.fr/emissions/soir-1ere
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Re: Re:

#3138 Postby ROCK » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:42 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
northtxboy wrote:If chantal is gone what do we do now? :(

well with a population of about 200 in windom, tx im not quite sure what you will be doing but we will be watching this energy split that happened and see what happens..maybe you and Rock will get some moisture from the left overs...otherwise not much on the tropical map for your part of the world for now



hey it rained on me today!! :lol: and I live in Pearland population of 90,000 fighting Oilers..... :lol:
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Re: Re:

#3139 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:49 pm

ROCK wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
northtxboy wrote:If chantal is gone what do we do now? :(

well with a population of about 200 in windom, tx im not quite sure what you will be doing but we will be watching this energy split that happened and see what happens..maybe you and Rock will get some moisture from the left overs...otherwise not much on the tropical map for your part of the world for now



hey it rained on me today!! :lol: and I live in Pearland population of 90,000 fighting Oilers..... :lol:


texas had a good run a few years ago but its been bare to the bones recently, maybe you could send some of that population to our friend up in winktom
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Re: ATL: CHANTAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3140 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:50 pm

Image
Chantal swallowed Hispaniola!!

Gustywind wrote:Latest SSD numbers for Chantal...
:rarrow: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
10/1745 UTC [b]17.8N 71.4W OVERLAND CHANTAL
10/1145 UTC 15.6N 71.0W T1.5/1.5 CHANTAL
10/0545 UTC 15.7N 67.3W T1.0/2.0 CHANTAL[/b]

That's interesting, maybe they are tracking the mid level??
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