ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

#3201 Postby **Jevo** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 4:45 pm

18z GFS +36

18z GFS +48

Aric Dunn · #3202 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 4:46 pm

SFLcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:im back...

Definitely have to watch the mid level energy as it lifts north tonight and tomorrow into the bahamas

Aric I don't see hostile winds in the Bahamas and straits

yeah shear a lower .. have to just wait and see

Aric Dunn · #3203 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 4:49 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
Blown Away wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
So when the 17.8N/71.4W Overland position was reported, that was the MLC?

ld have to think so

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

700mb vorticity.. a lot of it heading over hispaniola and into southern bahamas

#3204 Postby **Caribwxgirl** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 4:49 pm

So how much rain am I to expect or might this not affect us much after all.

#3205 Postby **Jevo** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 4:50 pm

18z GFS +60

artist · #3206 Postby **artist** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 4:51 pm

interesting Jevo, the GFS is showing this now.

#3207 Postby **ozonepete** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 4:54 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Definitely have to watch the mid level energy as it lifts north tonight and tomorrow into the bahamas

Ha ha I knew you would be watching.

yeah I mentioned it earlier today the energy is on the move to the NW north of hati.

That's still what's going on. Has to be watched of course.

#3208 Postby **Jevo** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 5:03 pm

18z GFS +72

artist · #3209 Postby **artist** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 5:04 pm

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM IS STILL ALIVE.
3. REMARKS:
A. MISSION FOR 11/1800Z IS INCLUDED IN THIS POD
BECAUSE OF CHANGE IN MISSION PROFILE.
B. FIXES FOR 11/000Z,0600Z,1200Z AND 12/0000Z,0600Z
ALL CANCELED BY NHC AT 10/1900Z

hurricanekid416 · #3210 Postby **hurricanekid416** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 5:13 pm

The track has probably shifted east for the mlc

#3211 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 5:15 pm

Size of this system has really expanded this afternoon. It's going to be interesting to watch over the next 24 hours.

Loop:

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?res=4km&chnl=ir&domain=bah&period=720&incr=30&rr=900&banner=mkwc&satplat=goeseast&overlay=off&animtype=flash

#3212 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 5:18 pm

The ULL over Florida is really dying out.

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?res=4km&chnl=wv&domain=bah&period=720&incr=30&rr=900&banner=mkwc&satplat=goeseast&overlay=off&animtype=flash

hurricanekid416 · #3213 Postby **hurricanekid416** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 5:18 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
Blown Away wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
So when the 17.8N/71.4W Overland position was reported, that was the MLC?

ld have to think so

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

700mb vorticity.. a lot of it heading over hispaniola and into southern bahamas

There is a lot of vorticity south of the Cape Verde Islands

#3214 Postby **chaser1** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 5:21 pm

Arch Angel, off to heaven for her :wink:

Looks like arc clouds to me....... poof

#3215 Postby **jlauderdal** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 5:31 pm

chaser1 wrote:Arch Angel, off to heaven for her Looks like arc clouds to me....... poof

jevo is posting the gfs on the model thread and sure enough its seeing something from the MLC that is coming out of the carib, lets see if the euro bites on it..its nothing intense but its more than we have seen from the gfs in a day or so

artist · #3216 Postby **artist** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 5:35 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
chaser1 wrote:Arch Angel, off to heaven for her Looks like arc clouds to me....... poof

jevo is posting the gfs on the model thread and sure enough its seeing something from the MLC that is coming out of the carib, lets see if the euro bites on it..its nothing intense but its more than we have seen from the gfs in a day or so

Yeah, I saw that and thought, what the heck? I guess we get to wait some more... If it weren't for that large cloud mass, even if not great, I would probably step away from the computer. :cheesy:

#3217 Postby **SFLcane** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 5:47 pm

Pretty abvious here were ex-Chantal should move. Weakness right over Florida

Hurricane Alexis · #3218 Postby **Hurricane Alexis** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 5:50 pm

Any decent chance it redevelops over the straits?

#3219 Postby **ozonepete** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 5:51 pm

chaser1 wrote:Arch Angel, off to heaven for her Looks like arc clouds to me....... poof

Hi chaser. I posted this last night:

It depends. If the outflow boundary and all of the area behind it quickly erupts with deep convection (as has been happening with Chantal today) then it doesn't mean anything. It's when outflow boundaries get produced and no new convection fires up near them that one should suspect dry air is winning out.

The arcus cloud line you are looking at was produced by a southern outlying thunderstorm cluster and is not associated with the body of the MLC. So that one isn't a good indicator for what will happen with the MLC.

#3220 Postby **jeff** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 6:15 pm

As most of the global models have been suggesting...Chantal was not able to hang on....and there is little to suggest re-development.

However...Chantal was a sign that the deep tropics are primed (earlier than usual) and we should be prepared for later this season.

ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

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