ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

[HurricaneDREW92]

I'm going in favor of an 11am TD. To be honest, part of me still feels like in the morning Dorian has convection and at night it has structure. Once again, might be me but you never know.
Models:


Some, though unreliable take it into the GOM. Bears watching.

['CaneFreak]

Hey Aric,

I am not sure that they (NHC) have reinitialized it as an invest yet because even wunderground has no model plots up.

anyone have the gfs ensemble members?

Aric here are the 12z plots..

[img]http://i40.tinypic.com/14o1u9w.png[/ig]

yeah thats way to far east not even useable.. thanks though

[SFLcane]

Moderate TS inpacting SFL

[TheStormExpert]

Dorian just doesn't want to disappear it seems.

[wxman57]

I can't find any evidence of a surface circulation. Any rotation seen on radar is in the mid levels - 12,000-15,000 ft, as the Miami radar beam is that high above the ground out there. Winds are very light all through the Bahamas and convection is minimal. No development.

[TheStormExpert]

Those members on here who were saying we might have to watch it in the Northwestern Bahamas were pretty much correct! I'd be very very surprised if this became a TD again.

['CaneFreak]

Well, I can guarantee that solution is bogus...wow...that's laughable

Moderate TS inpacting SFL

[SFLcane]

Well, I can guarantee that solution is bogus...wow...that's laughable

Moderate TS inpacting SFL

Actually care to state why? Shear isnt a problem at the moment along with very deep warm gulfstream waters that isnt to far fetched. This thing is crawling

['CaneFreak]

Its basing that solution off the assumption that this is already a closed system which it is not

Well, I can guarantee that solution is bogus...wow...that's laughable

Moderate TS inpacting SFL

Actually care to state why? Shear isnt a problem at the moment along with very deep warm gulfstream waters that isnt to far fetched. This thing is crawling

[SFLcane]

With conditions mentioned above moving very slowly its got my attention

[Sanibel]

Could have a center reforming nearer to Nassau.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Moderate TS inpacting SFL

Do you have a link for those maps? Thanks in advance.

['CaneFreak]

I wouldnt get my panties in a wad..its got 24 hours and then the shear monster is going to gobble it up once and for all

With conditions mentioned above moving very slowly its got my attention

[SFLcane]

I wouldnt get my panties in a wad..its got 24 hours and then the shear monster is going to gobble it up once and for all

With conditions mentioned above moving very slowly its got my attention

What was that? Have seen plenty of systems develop in less then that. Even a weak TD can have significant impacts. It's really the only game in town till this dust settles in a few weeks.

['CaneFreak]

No worries...I was just laughing because you were backing your argument that this was going to develop with one of the worst models...sorry

I wouldnt get my panties in a wad..its got 24 hours and then the shear monster is going to gobble it up once and for all

With conditions mentioned above moving very slowly its got my attention

What was that? Have seen plenty of systems develop in less then that. Even a weak TD can have significant impacts. It's really the only game in town till this dust settles in a few weeks.

[Alyono]

Its basing that solution off the assumption that this is already a closed system which it is not

actually, HWRF does NOT assume a closed low. No dynamical model assumes a closed low, unless a bogus low is initialized in the model. Dynamical models can develop their own closed low

[Hurricane Alexis]

Well the HWRF always overdoes intensity.

['CaneFreak]

Ahhhhh....ok bogus vortex then..forgot about that..thx for the clarification..

Its basing that solution off the assumption that this is already a closed system which it is not

actually, HWRF does NOT assume a closed low. No dynamical model assumes a closed low, unless a bogus low is initialized in the model. Dynamical models can develop their own closed low

[gatorcane]

Looks like there is a big blowup of convection between Cuba and Andros and new convection is blowing up pretty quickly just west of Andros:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html