ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[blp]

Nice blowup, right over the area of interest. Still might be over land a bit, next few hours will be interesting.

[artist]

They will need recon if this continues the rest of today

yeah, Dave posted they are scheduled for this 'invest' if needed for tomorrow now, after having cancelled all recon yesterday.

some active weather in PBC today, stay safe


is this chantal remnants raking the area?

doesn't really sound like it -

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED PLENTY OF MID/UPPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS EAST OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
PLENTY OF CONVECTION CONTINUING TO FLARE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND EASTERN
CUBA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A REMNANT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE
12Z GFS RUN NOW INDICATES A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING AND LIFTING
NORTH FROM THIS GENERAL AREA OVER THE GULF STREAM JUST EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE/RAINFALL PROJECTED TO REMAIN TO ITS EAST OVER THE
BAHAMAS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...REGENERATION IS CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF QUESTION AND ALL INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECAST AS UPDATES MAY BECOME NECESSARY OVER THE UPCOMING 24
HRS. REGARDLESS OF ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHIFTING TO THE WSW WILL FAVOR
CONVECTION INITIATING AND SETTING UP ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AND
COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsBySta ... discussion

[northjaxpro]

If it were to develope what are the synoptics presently and where might it go.
I know afew days ago we were talikng about the ridge building back in forcing
everything across florida and possibly into the gulf-is that still the case?

Right now, I am trying not to focus too much with the modeling until we actually have confirmation of an intialized LLC to track again. We won't know until Recon gets back out there.

However, it is all about timing. Concerning the suspect area just north of Cuba, at the moment, there seems to be enough of a weakness that may allow whatever becomes of Chantal's remnants to move generally NW to N which may allow for it to affect up the coast to the Carolinas. Also, steering could collapse in the coming days which may allow it to meander around and or the ridge may build back in to propel it more NW and move it inland somewhere along the SE Atlantic coast at the end of the 5 day range.

Again, It is tough to say or speculate until we get an confirmation or intialization from Recon if a LLC has redeveloped in our suspected area.

[stormhunter7]

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite ... mas-vis-24

Looks to me that Chantal is back? Checking for west winds on surface obs

[blp]

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/2km/index.php?type=Bahamas-vis-24

Looks to me that Chantal is back? Checking for west winds on surface obs

Certainly getting interesting. Nice blowup over the area of interest. Might surprise a few people.

[OuterBanker]

I thought that Chantal was officially called DOA, what happened?

FYI, both the 00z and 12z Canadian have shown a land falling ts around Wilmington (NC not DE). But, I think both were run on a more east initiation. It will be interesting when the models pick up on this. The gfs (12z) did pick up a reflection of just about where it is, but doesn’t do anything with it. It just slowly migrates north and dissipates. Euro (12z) is the exception. It has the remnants below Cuba migrate west into NOLA, but as a 1017 low, nothing much. Sure will be interesting tomorrow. It is interesting that they didn’t take down the floater.

Looks like I will less hair and more gray this year.

[blp]

That's an Upper Level Low

http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/6020/gbxn.jpg[/img]

Yep, shows up well on the 200mb level. This won't allow much organization in the short term.

[Aric Dunn]

geezz what is wrong with noaa satellite website...

[artist]

[floridasun78]

area were center use starting full up a bit with storms

[cycloneye]

Interesting stuff by ATCF. They renumbered from AL03 to Invest 96L.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al032013_al962013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307112043
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 962013.ren

[SouthFloridawx]

Are you talking about the missing frames?

geezz what is wrong with noaa satellite website...

[Hurricaneman]

Interesting stuff by ATCF. They renumbered from AL03 to Invest 96L.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al032013_al962013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307112043
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 962013.ren

are they seeing it as a new entity, IMO that would be the wrong thing to do as it is the MLC from Chantal and not a new entity. this may cause confusion

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[northjaxpro]

They are about to designate to invest 96L?

['CaneFreak]

It goes back and forth between old images and new images each and every time you refresh this page. It's been going on for days...strange.

Are you talking about the missing frames?

geezz what is wrong with noaa satellite website...

[hurricanekid416]

Interesting stuff by ATCF. They renumbered from AL03 to Invest 96L.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al032013_al962013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307112043
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 962013.ren

I think they might say the area south of Cuba is chantal and the area in the Bahamas as a different system but I doubt it

[SouthFloridawx]

That's part of the reason why I started using this site. It doesn't go back as far, but it does the job.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

It goes back and forth between old images and new images each and every time you refresh this page. It's been going on for days...strange.

Are you talking about the missing frames?

geezz what is wrong with noaa satellite website...

[Aric Dunn]

It goes back and forth between old images and new images each and every time you refresh this page. It's been going on for days...strange.

Are you talking about the missing frames?

geezz what is wrong with noaa satellite website...

yeah very annoying..

[floridasun78]

Interesting stuff by ATCF. They renumbered from AL03 to Invest 96L.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al032013_al962013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307112043
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 962013.ren

this same center or new center?

[cycloneye]

Interesting stuff by ATCF. They renumbered from AL03 to Invest 96L.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al032013_al962013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307112043
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 962013.ren

this same center or new center?

Same as the best track earlier.

AL, 96, 2013071118, , BEST, 0, 224N, 780W, 25, 1013, WV